IKE - IKE GPS Group

[Greekwatchdog]

Just opened @ $0.73 AUD. on ASX

[BlackPeter]

Just opened @ $0.73 AUD. on ASX

I guess the more interesting question is - does the board really know what the company is worth? So easy to be strong and proud if you are playing with other peoples money. I am sure, we all remember plenty of examples (well, I do) where boards declined good takeover offers and massively destroyed shareholder capital that way.

More difficult (but I am sure, there must be some examples as well) is it to remember examples where boards declined takeover offers and managed to make for their owners more money than the offer was.

But no doubt - this time it will be different, and the board will get it right ;

[Untamed]

There is only one reason that this offer was made. Because whoever made it, recognises IKEs progress to date, and fully understands their potential. As do I. And I for one, would not support a takeover. I want to continue to own a piece of this company, and I am nowhere near ready to give that up. I literally don't care what price they might come back with, I stand to gain a hell of a lot more over time, by staying invested.

I guess the more interesting question is - does the board really know what the company is worth? So easy to be strong and proud if you are playing with other peoples money. I am sure, we all remember plenty of examples (well, I do) where boards declined good takeover offers and massively destroyed shareholder capital that way.

More difficult (but I am sure, there must be some examples as well) is it to remember examples where boards declined takeover offers and managed to make for their owners more money than the offer was.

But no doubt - this time it will be different, and the board will get it right ;

[Henry Filth]

There is only one reason that this offer was made. Because whoever made it, recognises IKEs progress to date, and fully understands their potential. As do I. And I for one, would not support a takeover. I want to continue to own a piece of this company, and I am nowhere near ready to give that up. I literally don't care what price they might come back with, I stand to gain a hell of a lot more over time, by staying invested.

It's a somewhat sad (and depressingly familiar) story that the New Zealand market tends not to be particularly good when it comes to valuing New Zealand companies.

[BlackPeter]

There is only one reason that this offer was made. Because whoever made it, recognises IKEs progress to date, and fully understands their potential. As do I. And I for one, would not support a takeover. I want to continue to own a piece of this company, and I am nowhere near ready to give that up. I literally don't care what price they might come back with, I stand to gain a hell of a lot more over time, by staying invested.

Sure - whoever made it thought it is more worth to them than the offer they made.

Its just - people making takeover offers are often not right either (remember the declined STU takeover at $1.80, the declined MPG takeover at around 20 cents or the declined SKY takeover? In every case the resident board demonstrated by declining the offer complete cluelessness related to the value of their organization. But hey, they just destroyed shareholder capital and not their own money, so it must be ok.

But yes - I do wish holders that this time it might be different. Its just - one can write a lot of network provider specific ERP software for $160m (which would be IKE's market cap at $1). Anybody can do that (particularly all the other companies serving network providers at the moment - clearly, some market knowledge does help).

Anyway - board choose for you holders to gamble with your $160m ... and, as long as you all are happy with that (it sounds like you are for your share), this is absolutely o.k. Good luck.

[Untamed]

Investing is a gamble by nature. All of it. No matter whether you are an investing whizz like our "friend" Basil, or a small, inexperienced investor like me. It is all a gamble.

Sure - whoever made it thought it is more worth to them than the offer they made.

Its just - people making takeover offers are often not right either (remember the declined STU takeover at $1.80, the declined MPG takeover at around 20 cents or the declined SKY takeover? In every case the resident board demonstrated by declining the offer complete cluelessness related to the value of their organization. But hey, they just destroyed shareholder capital and not their own money, so it must be ok.

But yes - I do wish holders that this time it might be different. Its just - one can write a lot of network provider specific ERP software for $160m (which would be IKE's market cap at $1). Anybody can do that (particularly all the other companies serving network providers at the moment - clearly, some market knowledge does help).

Anyway - board choose for you holders to gamble with your $160m ... and, as long as you all are happy with that (it sounds like you are for your share), this is absolutely o.k. Good luck.

[BlackPeter]

Investing is a gamble by nature. All of it. No matter whether you are an investing whizz like our "friend" Basil, or a small, inexperienced investor like me. It is all a gamble.

Absolutely, though there are obviously classes of risk. While nobody can predict the future, it is possible to define which outcomes are more or less likely.

The less likely the predicted outcome (like in this case - IKE more worth than a present value of $160m), the higher the gambling component.

Anyway - no worries.

[Left Field]

Should bounce north of 80c today......

Naaiice.....onwards and upwards.

[Greekwatchdog]

Here is For Bars review..

ikeGPS (IKE) received an unsolicited, non-binding acquisition proposal from a North American private equity firm in late 2024, valuing the company at approximately NZ$1.00 per share, representing an enterprise value of NZ$165m–NZ$170m and a +62% premium to the 5 February 2025 share price. After assessing the proposal, IKE's board allowed the bidder a short period of exclusive due diligence to determine whether a firm offer could be sufficiently compelling to justify a scheme of arrangement. Following due diligence, the final offer was received in late January 2025. After confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements, the board determined that the price had no realistic chance of securing the required shareholder support, and the process was terminated. The acquisition proposal would have valued IKE at  a ~4.8x 12-month forward EV/Sales multiple, significantly below the median peer multiple of ~9x. While our blended spot valuation for IKE is NZ$0.92, we have previously noted that a materially higher price may be possible in an M&A scenario, reflecting: (1) IKE's new product development pipeline, and (2) IKE's high-quality customer base, with 34 of the top ~100 investor-owned utilities in North America using its software.

What's changed?
Spot valuation: Increases +5% to NZ$0.92, reflecting the incorporation of FY26 EV/Sales multiples as a component of our blended valuation.
Lack of shareholder support led to termination of discussions
IKE's board engaged in confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements to gauge potential support for the NZ$1.00 per share offer. Feedback from these discussions indicated that the proposed price was unlikely to gain sufficient backing to proceed with a scheme of arrangement. The board weighed this assessment against the potential costs and resource commitments required to advance discussions further. Despite the +62% premium offered, shareholders and the board remained unconvinced that the valuation reflected IKE's long-term growth potential. With no indication that a higher offer would be forthcoming, the board determined that the proposal had no realistic chance of success. As a result, IKE formally terminated discussions, ensuring that management's focus remained on executing its growth strategy rather than pursuing an offer that lacked shareholder support.

IKE's peer group shows significant M&A upside potential under IKE's better-than-sector growth
IKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.

[Left Field]

IKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.
 

Crikey..... not often I find myself agreeing with ForBar.

Onwards & upwards.

[Minimoke]

Announced today more cash coming in. And they have secured an agreement with the third largest electric utility in North America

[Greekwatchdog]

Announced today more cash coming in. And they have secured an agreement with the third largest electric utility in North America

With more to come....
IKE expects that further significant subscription contracts will close in the short and medium term.

[Minimoke]

With more to come....
IKE expects that further significant subscription contracts will close in the short and medium term.

Declaring a first ever dividend may be a bit closer.

[Greekwatchdog]

Declaring a first ever dividend may be a bit closer.

Hmmm, just imagine where the share price could be when that happens..

[Minimoke]

Hmmm, just imagine where the share price could be when that happens..

At which point they are probably ripe for a takeover.