IKE - IKE GPS Group

[Greekwatchdog]

Glad you are easy to please.

Looks like their FY25 revenue falls 1.1.m short of predictions (25.1m vs 26.2m), and they didn't even review their presentation before publishing it ... just look at the dates in slide 8 and 9.

Bat apart from that - a growth company with a patchy revenue CAGR growth of just 6%?

I am more focused on the 2025/26 year and beyond. I see good progress being made. 

Discuss next year.

[BlackPeter]

I am more focused on the 2025/26 year and beyond. I see good progress being made. 

Discuss next year.

Seeing pogress before it has been made is hard even in normal (predictable) times. These times are anything but predictable, but anyway - good luck with that.

[Greekwatchdog]

Seeing pogress before it has been made is hard even in normal (predictable) times. These times are anything but predictable, but anyway - good luck with that.

I get that, but if we worries about all the crap going on we wouldn't invest so sometimes you need to look past the unpredictable. I gave up on mind/crystal ball reading in 1983 as I found it un realiable.

[winner (n)]

I still trying to get excited but .......


.....the hype doesn't seem to translate into a great story

You cannot view this attachment.

[Greekwatchdog]

I still trying to get excited but .......


.....the hype doesn't seem to translate into a great story

You cannot view this attachment.

Go back in time and read why that happened Winner. Graphs dont always explain everything

[Left Field]

..... a growth company with a patchy revenue CAGR growth of just 6%?

Not quite correct BP? The 6% rate you quote relates to transaction revenue only (refer P8 chart.)

As I read the IKE charts provided,  three-year subscription revenue CAGR of +37% ( refer P6 chart ) needs to be added to the  6% transaction CAGR revenue growth??

That said, it is confusing as no total CAGR annual revenue fig is provided for the TOTAL revenue chart on page 9.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450406/attachment/441951/450406-441951.pdf

[winner (n)]

Not quite correct BP? The 6% rate you quote relates to transaction revenue only (refer P8 chart.)

As I read the IKE charts provided,  three-year subscription revenue CAGR of +37% ( refer P6 chart ) needs to be added to the  6% transaction CAGR revenue growth??

That said, it is confusing as no total CAGR annual revenue fig is provided for the TOTAL revenue chart on page 9.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450406/attachment/441951/450406-441951.pdf

Total revenue CAGR since 2022 is about 16%

Growth rate declining last few months

Need to see where it's going eh

[winner (n)]

From look at Gross Margin numbers will still report a sizeable loss .....and probably cash flow negative


But IKE wii get there one day

[BlackPeter]

Not quite correct BP? The 6% rate you quote relates to transaction revenue only (refer P8 chart.)

As I read the IKE charts provided,  three-year subscription revenue CAGR of +37% ( refer P6 chart ) needs to be added to the  6% transaction CAGR revenue growth??

That said, it is confusing as no total CAGR annual revenue fig is provided for the TOTAL revenue chart on page 9.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450406/attachment/441951/450406-441951.pdf

OK - I give you that the company makes it hard to get any meaningful statistics, which might well be another warning flag for investors. What do they have to hide, if anybody can see the losses and the snail pace revenue growth in plain sight?

Here are some facts: According to their published annual reports are they loosing money every year since 2018 (the earliest ref in a report I found). In good years they lost only 5 cts per share and in bad years 9 cents per share, but overall its a flat line.

Total Revenue in 2018 was $7.7m and it went up to 25.2m in 2025 (preliminary). OK - that's better than the 6% for recovering revenue they claimed in their presentation, but its still only a CAGR of 18%, which is pretty meaningless, given that it doesn't seem to turn into an improvement of the earnings situation.

Amazing what a good story can do ... companies like PEB are doing this already for more than 2 decades and people keep loving to give them money.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars Review

keGPS (IKE) reported a solid 4Q25 performance update, with total revenue for FY25 growing +19% on FY24, albeit modestly missing prior expectations on contract timing. Faster growth in Subscription revenues compared to Transactional revenues has seen a favourable lift in overall gross margins. As of FY25, net cash sits at NZ$10.3m, up +NZ$1.1m in the quarter—aided by prepayments of multi-year subscription contracts. We modestly cut our medium-term revenue expectations due to (1) the mild FY25 revenue miss, (2) three consecutive quarters of essentially flat total revenues (on reduced Transactional revenues), and (3) management's new FY26 guidance. The significant tech sector de-rating impacts our blended spot valuation despite rolling forward.

What's changed?



Earnings: Minor cuts to revenue estimates offset by an uplift in gross margins.
Spot valuation: Falls -3cps to NZ$0.89 on the net of 1) modestly lowered near-term revenue estimates, 2) higher gross margin assumptions, but mostly 3) the recent tech sector sell-off.


FY25 performance update


IKE's 4Q25/FY25 update highlighted subscription revenue as the primary driver, reaching NZ$14.4m, up +34% against the prior year. Transactional revenue rose to NZ$7.6m (+3%), reflecting project variability, while hardware and other services delivered NZ$3.2m (+5%). The shift towards higher-margin subscription income supported a +900bp expansion in gross margin, lifting to 69% for FY25. Customer numbers fell with the discontinuation of the legacy PoleForeman product, leading to the loss of around 40 lower-revenue customers—collectively contributing only NZ$0.1m in ARR—who did not transition to the new offering.�������

Operational developments highlight accelerating progress within existing customers


Significant enterprise deals in 4Q25 yielded approximately 1,300 new subscription seat licences, lifting the total to >8,000—up +103% against the prior year. Since the launch of the updated PoleForeman product in late 2023, total contract value has exceeded NZ$17.0m, reflecting IKE's deeper penetration among tier-1 electric utilities in the United States. Several of these operators are standardising on IKE's platform for distribution network structural analysis, prompted by newly introduced AI-driven features. The sticky nature of these customers underpins high retention rates and underscores meaningful long-term revenue potential.

Ongoing momentum sets upbeat FY26 management outlook


IKE's FY25 subscription revenue exit run rate rose by +48% against the prior year, reflecting the full transition to PoleForeman and the boost from macro-driven infrastructure spending. With these tailwinds, IKE forecasts FY26 ARR to grow by +35% or more. We view management's plan to increase gross margins (via a combination of mix and segment margin uplift) as highly constructive—our estimate assumes a +500bp rise from FY25 to reach 74% in FY26, on total revenue growth of +20%.


Earnings revisions

We have revised our FY25 estimates to align with IKE's latest revenue performance update. In FY26 and FY27, we now anticipate a more gradual recovery in Transaction revenue, reflecting potential shifts in US fibre deployment—particularly if policy trends favour satellite over ground-based infrastructure. This adjustment reduces total revenue growth forecasts, despite continuing subscription gains. The mix shift towards higher-margin subscriptions nevertheless provides a degree of earnings insulation, leaving our EBITDA forecasts essentially unchanged for FY25 and FY26, though slightly lower for

[winner (n)]

Thanks Gwd

Extract "...expect IKE to achieve monthly EBITDA break-even during 2H26, albeit with a full-year loss for that period, and maintain our outlook for EBITDA break-even in the FY27 year."

We all know what that means eh ....probably repeat it again next tear but pushingbdates out

[winner (n)]

Wow  ...IKE the new Gentrack


In the media --

Elevation Capital Funds Management's Eden Bradfield said there was clearly a strong trajectory for Ike in the US, with blue-chip customers such as AT&T.

"Consider how well Gentrack has done and the potential for Ike to surf on a similar tailwind.

[Left Field]

Wow  ...IKE the new Gentrack..

"Consider how well Gentrack has done and the potential for Ike to surf on a similar tailwind.

Crikey that's the stuff of dreams Winner! IKE at $10.00....imagine.

[Greekwatchdog]

Big trade for this stock on ASX @ $0.715

[Turkey]

Yeah.. interesting. I had a small qty just sell at .79 on nzx.