IKE - IKE GPS Group

[winner (n)]

don't forget the old saying 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact"

[Greekwatchdog]

don't forget the old saying 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact"

Like the WAHS Winner!!!!

[Greekwatchdog]

Update below.

ikeGPS Group Limited (IKE) (NZX: IKE / ASX: IKE) is pleased to release a performance update for the recent quarter and the nine-month period to 31 December 2024. All figures are in NZD, rounded to the nearest decimal, unaudited and subject to minor change.

Highlights for the nine-month period:

Exit run rate of annual platform subscription revenue grew to NZ$15.7m (+43% vs pcp).

Total recognized revenue in the period of NZ$18.5m (+21% vs pcp), with recognized revenue in 3Q of NZ$6.3m. Comprising the above was:
+ Subscription revenue of NZ$10.2m (+29% vs pcp).
+ Transaction revenue of NZ$5.8m (+14% vs pcp).
+ Hardware and other services revenue of NZ$2.5m (+9% vs pcp).

Gross margin of NZ$12.6m (+42% vs pcp), with gross margin in 3Q of $4.5m.
+ Gross margin percentage of 68% (up from pcp of 58%), driven by revenue mix continuing to shift to high margin subscription products.

Total cash and net receivables grew +NZ$4m in the quarter to NZ$13.6m.
+ Comprising NZ$9.2m in cash and NZ$4.4m in net receivables (NZ$5.9m receivables, with payables of NZ$1.5m) and no debt. This is a result of continued overall growth, from winning numerous large subscription contracts in the prior quarters and associated collection timing, and ongoing operating cost control.
+ The 31 December 2024 cash position is +NZ$1.2m on the same time in the year prior.

Commenting on company progress through the recent quarter, IKE CEO Glenn Milnes said:

"3Q25 was another strong quarter marked by significant subscription contracts closed with tier-1 North American customers, driving continued growth in ARR run rates. This resulted in the addition of 1,270 new subscription seat licenses during the quarter, bringing the total to over 7,000, a +181% increase compared to the prior year. Notable subscription customer wins in the quarter included with a 100+ year-old electric utility that delivers power to more than three million customers in the south of the U.S., an enterprise agreement with a national engineering group with 150 offices and 8,000 employees globally, and a U.S. communications company with >$50B revenue where IKE is initially supporting their overhead infrastructure operations across California.

We have closed a record ~NZ$44m in total contracts over the past nine months, spanning approximately 640 deals. It is important to note that some of these subscription and transaction contracts will be recognized over a multi-year period, with the execution of certain transaction contracts dependent on IKE customers completing their associated engineering.

Our balance sheet remains strong. The cash and net receivables position increased NZ$4m in the quarter. This is a result of continued overall growth, from winning numerous large subscription contracts in the prior quarters and the associated collection timing, and ongoing operating cost control. Our current cash position of NZ$9.2m exceeds the level reported at the same time last year. This has been achieved while investing significantly into building five new products and while we have continued our expansion in the market with new customer wins running at around one per week.

The investment into product and market development is yielding returns. For example, since the launch of the IKE PoleForeman product 13 months ago, Total Contract Value (TCV) has surpassed NZ$16m, driven by adoption among tier-1 electric utilities in the U.S. market. This has significantly contributed to ARR growth. The highly sticky nature of these customers ensures substantial lifetime contract value. To date, 109 customers have subscribed to the platform, including 59 existing customers and 50 new ones. This growth has driven the issuance of over 7,000 subscription seat licenses, each representing a distribution network design engineer using IKE's software. We expect more major customers to close in the near term and that by the end of FY25 IKE PoleForeman will be the Standard for structural analysis in eight of the ten largest electric utilities in North America.

The Company will discuss the results on a webinar with CEO Glenn Milnes at 11:00am AEDT/1:00pm NZDT today – Tuesday, 28 January 2025.

[Untamed]

Excellent!

I especially like this:

This resulted in the addition of 1,270 new subscription seat licenses during the quarter, bringing the total to over 7,000, a +181% increase compared to the prior year. Notable subscription customer wins in the quarter included with a 100+ year-old electric utility that delivers power to more than three million customers in the south of the U.S., an enterprise agreement with a national engineering group with 150 offices and 8,000 employees globally, and a U.S. communications company with >$50B revenue where IKE is initially supporting their overhead infrastructure operations across California.

We have closed a record ~NZ$44m in total contracts over the past nine months, spanning approximately 640 deal

Couldn't ask for more. The usual negative Nancies are out in force on the other channel, as always, but I am more than happy 

[BlackPeter]

Revenue Q1 .. Q3: $18.5m

analyst prediction for FY25: $28m (which would be a 33% rise from FY 24)

Looks like they need a really strong Q4 to make that.

Just saying.

Apart from that - does anybody know when they plan to break even? How are they tracking on this path? Writing losses year after year does not feel to be sustainable.

But I better stop before I get called negative Nancy .

BTW - do not watch the other channel anymore - their moderation is revolting.

[Mad Goat Keeper]

A repeat of Q3 would get them to 24.8m. All the duck lining up but the doormen seem to be slow at letting the ducks in to party... Still, I feel things are nearer than ever to getting traction. The increase in cash and receivables of +4m is great news

[winner (n)]

Glad you posted untamed

I thought of you when I read about a woman getting critically injured when a tree fell on her caravan in Canterbiry ...and hoping it wasn't you.

Cheers

[Untamed]

Probably a few here who would have been unperturbed, had it been me 

Thank you for your concern. Trees are always something I'm really weary of, living in a caravan. We had a line of very tall pines directly behind where I'm parked. Several times small branches broke off and fell through my neighbours awning. He was lucky he wasn't sitting under it at the time. A small branch, falling from height, can easily kill you. Fortunately, after we expressed our concern, the camp managers took the pines down, so we can all sleep at night now, even in a storm. Interestingly, our local Council refused to do anything about them, so we are very grateful that the managers did it, and met the cost themselves.

Glad you posted untamed

I thought of you when I read about a woman getting critically injured when a tree fell on her caravan in Canterbiry ...and hoping it wasn't you.

Cheers

[Untamed]

Yeah, you perpetually negative Nancy 

Glenn has been very transparent (via email to me some time ago, which I shared here), that they could be profitable tomorrow if they wished. But they believe they are better to focus on building on the progress they have made so far, and taking advantage of such a huge potential market, to grow the business. I agree with them, and these results show that there is still too much opportunity, not to take it. 181% growth in licence seats is huge. Not to mention a record $44M in closed contracts over the past nine months. Not too shabby as far as I am concerned.

Why don't you just buy some? You know you want to 

Revenue Q1 .. Q3: $18.5m

analyst prediction for FY25: $28m (which would be a 33% rise from FY 24)

Looks like they need a really strong Q4 to make that.
Just saying.
Apart from that - does anybody know when they plan to break even? How are they tracking on this path? Writing losses year after year does not feel to be sustainable.
But I better stop before I get called negative Nancy .
BTW - do not watch the other channel anymore - their moderation is revolting.

[Minimoke]

Revenue Q1 .. Q3: $18.5m

analyst prediction for FY25: $28m (which would be a 33% rise from FY 24)

Looks like they need a really strong Q4 to make that.

Just saying.

Apart from that - does anybody know when they plan to break even? How are they tracking on this path? Writing losses year after year does not feel to be sustainable.

But I better stop before I get called negative Nancy .

BTW - do not watch the other channel anymore - their moderation is revolting.

Well. 1 more cent and I am back to break even on this investment. So I'mm happy with the announcement. (my last lot of buys were at $0.45. Trouble was I bought in at $0.91)

[BlackPeter]

Yeah, you perpetually negative Nancy 

Glenn has been very transparent (via email to me some time ago, which I shared here), that they could be profitable tomorrow if they wished. But they believe they are better to focus on building on the progress they have made so far, and taking advantage of such a huge potential market, to grow the business. I agree with them, and these results show that there is still too much opportunity, not to take it. 181% growth in licence seats is huge. Not to mention a record $44M in closed contracts over the past nine months. Not too shabby as far as I am concerned.

Why don't you just buy some? You know you want to 

There is a fine difference between investing in a company saying that they could be profitable if they wanted to (but not wanting) ... and a company which actually is profitable.

But this is not the point. I understand that companies first need to invest to make money ... and I know as well that there are some examples for companies who managed to get outrageously profitable after asking shareholders for sometimes decades to add money. I do know however many more companies who followed the same strategy without ever returning the capital they consumed.

I guess the jury into which of these categories IKE belongs is still out, but just statistically seen are the odds  better to belong into the continuous loss makers category (obviously only until SH stop to give money). That's just the way it is.

My question however was, whether they have a plan when they intend to brake even? This would give shareholders at least something to measure against. Otherwise they can just keep publish whatever nice looking and not comparable numbers they have - and the time to break even is just like this proverbial peace of string ...

And no, I don't want to have their shares. There was a time when I was still young and prepared to to take high financial risks by investing into companies just based on a good story. Still licking my wounds , but I think I learned this lesson.

Anyway - all the best to holders - and don't misunderstand me, it well might turn out right. They appear to be a real company and clearly there are customers prepared to pay for their products / services. Just not enough, but sure - if client growth continues they might do at some stage the XRO of the electricity sector (though even they, though having past break even, are still far away from returning their shareholders investment in hard earnings).

Just statistics: the risks for a startup to lose money are drastically higher than the chance to make money, which means that the small number of success stories need to make outrageous money to make it all worthwhile. Question for the investor - do you see them as the amazon or the XRO of the electricity sector? Why? What is the business case? Which brings us back to: do they have a plan - or is it just hope?

[BlackPeter]

Well. 1 more cent and I am back to break even on this investment. So I'mm happy with the announcement. (my last lot of buys were at $0.45. Trouble was I bought in at $0.91)

Ahh - this is a traders perspective.

My question was not whether it is possible to make money with a stock where the SP is jittering enough. Of course, anybody can do it with either insider knowledge, good TA or just good luck.

My question was - what is the plan for the company to break even - i.e. reaching the point where their revenue is higher than the sum of all of their costs.

But I realize, this is more an investor type question.

[Untamed]

Why not email Glenn and ask him? You don't have to be a shareholder to do that.

Which brings us back to: do they have a plan - or is it just hope?

[BlackPeter]

Why not email Glenn and ask him? You don't have to be a shareholder to do that.

Look - I just try to convey what I would want to know as shareholder. However - I am not a shareholder of this company - and lets face it, the chances that an answer from him would change that are slim.

I expected some of the shareholders in the know to have an answer to the business case / break even question. If they don't and are still happy to put their money into this venture, this is fine with me.

[Untamed]

Fine. I'll ask him for you. Then at least you'll have an answer.

Look - I just try to convey what I would want to know as shareholder. However - I am not a shareholder of this company - and lets face it, the chances that an answer from him would change that are slim.

I expected some of the shareholders in the know to have an answer to the business case / break even question. If they don't and are still happy to put their money into this venture, this is fine with me.