ARV - Arvida Group

[Shareguy]

Fbar latest

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and maintain our view that ARV provides one of the most attractive risk rewards in the New Zealand market.

Disc, Will keep my holding, thought result was good.

[Basil]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARV/403208/384608.pdf

Interim report.  Looks satisfactory to me and I think they are managing the business prudently.  Arena acquisition has clearly paid dividends and was eps accretive.  Queenstown Country Club looks very nice.  Embedded value per share of $1.53 is very interesting.
My opinion: Would make a nice complimentary holding to SUM and for those looking to apply fresh capital to this sector it could be a good idea to very gradually dollar cost average into this and SUM over the next 12-18 months.
Others in this sector face too many headwinds for my liking.

[Shareguy]

Jarden says

Arvida's 1H underlying NPAT of $37.7m fell below analysts'
estimate. Jarden analyst Andrew Steele commented,
"ARV highlighted the outlook has an increasingly
negative bias, with regulatory, funding, housing
and healthcare factors presenting challenges."
Dividend outlook for FY23F reiterated with ARV
expecting a payout towards the middle of its payout
range (40-60% of underlying NPAT). Jarden estimate a
dividend close to 5.5cps, which implies an underlying
NPAT range of $80 88m (~4% downgrade).
"ARV expects to deliver 270 units and care suites
in FY23F although the medium-term target has been
lowered to 250+ units and suites, down from 300+.
We reduce earnings 6-10%, which largely reflects lower
development delivery assumptions for FY24F and
FY25F."
Jarden believe valuation upside and balance sheet
strength outweigh ARV's large aged care asset base,
which they expect to "remain a drag on earnings in
the near to medium term, and its modest development
pipeline relative to its in-place asset base.
Target price NZ$1.50 (was $1.58). Rated
Overweight.

[Basil]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARVIDA-GROUP-LIMITED-20708484/consensus/

Analysts like it.

[winner (n)]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARVIDA-GROUP-LIMITED-20708484/consensus/

Analysts like it.

The pale line hasn't caught up to the dark line yet lol

But the $2.04 one is very conservative still

[winner (n)]

A guy from Oceania said in an investor webinvar today that the 'market went to sleep' in the later bit of half one - hence the shortfall in new sales. But its all back to normal now so big catch up in second half

Went to sleep for all in the sector I reckon, so Arvida will be busy selling new ORAs as well this summer

[BlackPeter]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARVIDA-GROUP-LIMITED-20708484/consensus/

Analysts like it.

Agree, they are actually quite comparable to OCA, though started with some still scruffier sites and somewhat dishonest marketing during IPO.

Anyway - long time ago, and these days there is not a lot of difference between ARV and OCA in my spreadsheets - I am sure both will do fine.

Anybody who likes OCA should like ARV as well ;

[Basil]

Hope you are not copying Mav's spreadsheets.

[BlackPeter]

Hope you are not copying Mav's spreadsheets.

Does he have a spreadsheet about ARV as well?

Anyway, as far as I am concerned is his OCA spreadsheet quite accurate capturing the past as well as the ongoing business. But to predict the future you need as well a crystal ball which is not supplied by Microsoft ... but I recon we all tend to have problems when making statements about the future, don't we?

[winner (n)]

Does he have a spreadsheet about ARV as well?

Anyway, as far as I am concerned is his OCA spreadsheet quite accurate capturing the past as well as the ongoing business. But to predict the future you need as well a crystal ball which is not supplied by Microsoft ... but I recon we all tend to have problems when making statements about the future, don't we?

Hey Peter ==  There is an add-in in Excel called Crystal Ball .... works wonders in Excel and does millions of simulations in a few minutes .... and intuitively calculates CAGR over different periods to give the best results

Mav probably uses this Crystal Ball

[Basil]

You need to get with the program BP, I've been using Microsoft's crystal ball to good effect for years now     https://apps.microsoft.com/store/detail/crystal-ball/XP99X23CPNJZPS

[BlackPeter]

You need to get with the program BP, I've been using Microsoft's crystal ball to good effect for years now     https://apps.microsoft.com/store/detail/crystal-ball/XP99X23CPNJZPS

This helps me to better understand some of your predictions ;

[winner (n)]

OMG the worlds gone mad ....ARV close at 109

Just as well one can't predict the future else we might predict sub 100 by New Years

[Basil]

I should have kept my powder dry until a confirmed bottom was in.  Lowest gearing in the sector, sales holding up really well but headwinds are simply too strong for the entire sector.  Glad I only put my toe in the water with a 2% portfolio position which is getting rebalanced lower all by itself lol.

[Onemootpoint]

Nice comeback today (so far). Just as dramatic as yesterday's drop.