ARV - Arvida Group

[Basil]

18/12/2014 they listed.
SUM were $2.77 and RYM were $8.52
Interesting to observe their relative performance since then.
Couple of prominent posters called RYM overpriced in the mid $8's in 2014 and reckoned they'd suffer from years of underperformance from there going forward.  Wonder if either of them thought it would go on for 8 years ?  (I'm a much older dog now and can't remember lol suppose we could go back and have a look but I can't be bothered).

[BlackPeter]

The IPO raised $80m.  Plus those who bought were encouraged to enjoy the feel good factor that 3 All Blacks were fellow shareholders.  All Blacks guaranteeing success in business... or something like that.

You mean they are in business as successful as they are on the field    ?

[winner (n)]

Goodness gracious me - Arvida share price closed today at $1.28 .... and looks like it's going to fall further

Glad I didn't get seduced into buying those cheap shares they hocked off a year ago - $1.85 not a bargain after all. And even more glad I quit the few I had at the time around $1.95 when the market reaction to the Arena acquisition wasn't all that enthusiastic.

What's incredible is that the current market cap of $926m is $187m less than what it was at the time of announcing that acquisition .... and that's after raising $330m of new capital - massive loss of market value eh

Probably a case of no worries - it'll be all OK one day

[Basil]

I wonder if it heads down as low as $1.00 and I also wonder if it does whether it might be worth buying then ?

[winner (n)]

I wonder if it heads down as low as $1.00 and I also wonder if it does whether it might be worth buying then ?

Getting close to being 'train wreck' material methinks

Once that happens very dificulta-te get the market back on side .....confidence is lost.

Arvida May end up as Oceania MK2 ....one of those gunna stocks with 'huge potential' that never seem to deliver.

[Basil]

Yes, only time will tell how ugly this gets.  One thing's for sure the chart looks really ugly.  No way I am going to stand in front of this train rolling downhill at 100 miles an hour.

[Crackity]

Yes, only time will tell how ugly this gets.  One thing's for sure the chart looks really ugly.  No way I am going to stand in front of this train rolling downhill at 100 miles an hour.

When you two experienced old campaigners are so negative on a company it piques my interest 

Are we up to the capitulation market phase yet? Asking for a friend.....

[Basil]

When you two experienced old campaigners are so negative on a company it piques my interest 

Are we up to the capitulation market phase yet? Asking for a friend.....

You should ask our mutual friend KW what she thinks about buying in a downtrend 😁
Better to wait for TA to confirm the typhoon strength headwinds are over.
Personally speaking I think this statement by Winner hits the nail on the head, grammar and spelling improved by me, hope you don't mind Winner

"Once that happens it very difficult to get the market back on side .....confidence
is lost".

This flea and mange ridden mutt cost me $17K earlier this year with all their B.S. eps accretive talk with the placement, (worst loss for me for many years).
Definitely a case for me of once bitten twice shy !  I'd need to see a VERY deep discount to NTA to be interested in backing this unproven nag for another round at the races.  These days whenever I see talk in a placement funding an acquisition and the directors say its eps accretive, I think to myself, yeah right, can I have a Tui to go with that !

[Basil]

Getting close to being 'train wreck' material methinks

Once that happens very dificulta-te get the market back on side .....confidence is lost.

Arvida May end up as Oceania MK2 ....one of those gunna stocks with 'huge potential' that never seem to deliver.

Oh my goodness, we need another dog like that like we need around few rounds of impacted wisdom tooth surgery.
They certainly talked the acquisition up big time and are not delivering this year.  It's certainly opened up a huge question as to the integrity of what they said and what they're delivering, and institutions appear distinctly unimpressed.  On the face of it with only 28% of their units in care and 78% independent living units the care tail should not be wagging the dog as much as ARV suggest it is.

There's something else going on here that a lot of people don't like which is perhaps why institutions are dumping this in big volumes.  I've seen windows on toilets that are less opaque than their statement the other day.  People are shooting first and asking questions later and can you blame them ?

Might be some value here if it gets down to a dollar but then again lots of people thought that with OCA so maybe not ?

[Shareguy]

I send an email to Jeremy Nicoll CEO over the weekend with my concerns. Very pleased to report that I'm impressed that he replied. Here's his reply

Thanks for the email

Over the past 12 months we have seen all share prices in the sector come back significantly, as the market prices in concerns on the housing market, interest rates and a potentially recessionary environment. We are always focused on making sure that we look after shareholder interests, as well as those in our team and that live with us.

Share buybacks do send a positive signal to the market on where the company sees value, however they also erode gearing capacity. On that topic I cant say much more than that.

Kind regards

Jeremy

Our half year results are out on 29 November and that will include a full picture on our performance and strategies.

[Basil]

Off another 3 cents to$1.26.  On my goodness, on a very strong market day too !...what is the market trying to tell us ?

[winner (n)]

Off another 3 cents to$1.26.  On my goodness, on a very strong market day too !...what is the market trying to tell us ?

Jeez --- $1.25 today

Back to 2018/2019 levels ... and they've raised $450m since March 2019

Book Value March 2019 was $1.33 and now its $1.87 plus what they've made since March

And upcoming result going to be a record

Yes Basil - market trying to tell us something

[winner (n)]

I send an email to Jeremy Nicoll CEO over the weekend with my concerns. Very pleased to report that I'm impressed that he replied. Here's his reply

Thanks for the email

Over the past 12 months we have seen all share prices in the sector come back significantly, as the market prices in concerns on the housing market, interest rates and a potentially recessionary environment. We are always focused on making sure that we look after shareholder interests, as well as those in our team and that live with us.

Share buybacks do send a positive signal to the market on where the company sees value, however they also erode gearing capacity. On that topic I cant say much more than that.

Kind regards

Jeremy

Our half year results are out on 29 November and that will include a full picture on our performance and strategies.

You suggest a share buy back?

Even though Jeremy didn't say so he does seem to agree with me in thinking that's not a good idea

[Basil]

Jeez --- $1.25 today

Back to 2018/2019 levels ... and they've raised $450m since March 2019

Book Value March 2019 was $1.33 and now its $1.87 plus what they've made since March

And upcoming result going to be a record

Yes Basil - market trying to tell us something

Supply and demand currently in a major state of imbalance?  (see post in other retirement thread)

Suppose NTA currently $1.90.  Buy units at $1.25 = 190/125 = 52% instant tax free value accretion to remaining shareholders, more than triple their historical development margin if they invested the capital in new units instead.  Hmmm

[Basil]

Tuesday will be fascinating.  What exactly has the market been trying to tell us ?  Wonder what has the market so spooked sending this to another multi year low on Friday at $1.22 ?  Only 28% of their business is care so something else must be worrying the market ?  RYM managed to increase NTA this week with its result and this already has an NTA of $1.84 so if that goes up by a similar amount as RYM's did it should be about $1.95 so a prospective discount to NTA of 73 cents or ~ 37.5%.  Hmmm...not sure what to make of that ?  Anyone brave enough to share their thoughts before the result ?

Sounds like you have a few Shareguy, what do you make of this situation ?