ARV - Arvida Group

[Shareguy]

After reading through the MetLifecare announcement along with all other information decided to add to my position today. For long term holders don't think you can go far wrong at $1.

I'm thinking limited downside from here.

[Basil]

At this level considering the last stated NTA was $1.93 there's an AWFUL lot of bad news already fully priced in and this would be my only buy in this sector if I was to action anything at this point.  Floated at 95 cents in December 2014 on a prospective yield of 5.9% its now ostensibly done a full boomerang trip back to where it started.  To get back to that float yield with 5.5 cps in annual dividends it would need to be 93 cents.

My view is in the short term a retest of the float price is likely.  Why?
I believe the huge Ryman cash issue is acting like a giant Dyson vacuum cleaner sucking all the wind out of the sails of the other companies in this sector and to some extent the market as well.  My view is this is FAR better buying at $1 than RYM at $5 but so much energy is being sucked out of the market by so many investors thinking RYM at $5 is cheap.

Long term, its hard to see anyone going wrong at $1.  I like ARV's business model and management are executing well. 
Very cheap at $1 but the headwinds are so fierce in this sector....and while the massive RYM vortex is sucking all the energy out of the market its hard to see this gaining traction before that's over on 6 March.

I do agree that downside should be limited from here in a rational market but sentiment often isn't rational.


 

[Buzz]

At this level considering the last stated NTA was $1.93 there's an AWFUL lot of bad news already fully priced in and this would be my only buy in this sector if I was to action anything at this point.  Floated at 95 cents in December 2014 on a prospective yield of 5.9% its now ostensibly done a full boomerang trip back to where it started.  To get back to that float yield with 5.5 cps in annual dividends it would need to be 93 cents.

My view is in the short term a retest of the float price is likely.  Why?
I believe the huge Ryman cash issue is acting like a giant Dyson vacuum cleaner sucking all the wind out of the sails of the other companies in this sector and to some extent the market as well.  My view is this is FAR better buying at $1 than RYM at $5 but so much energy is being sucked out of the market by so many investors thinking RYM at $5 is cheap.

Long term, its hard to see anyone going wrong at $1.  I like ARV's business model and management are executing well. 
Very cheap at $1 but the headwinds are so fierce in this sector....and while the massive RYM vortex is sucking all the energy out of the market its hard to see this gaining traction before that's over on 6 March.

I do agree that downside should be limited from here in a rational market but sentiment often isn't rational.


 

There will be plenty of time to decide what RV's to invest in and when, the muck in this sector is far from over and some will be happy to wait on the sidelines for the TA to invite them in, whether already invested or not. The FA, well, it's going to take a bit longer to shake out, so let the TA do the talking in the meantime, there's no need to anticipate or make any moves too early. Fabulous buy-in opportunity will come for the long term portfolio, but not just right now.

[snapiti]

I tend to agree and whilst the property market still declines one would be brave to step in even at current SP levels (sector wide)
 

[winner (n)]

After reading through the MetLifecare announcement along with all other information decided to add to my position today. For long term holders don't think you can go far wrong at $1.

I'm thinking limited downside from here.

ARV has always been seen as the 'ugly duckling' of the sector and despite a bit of enthusiasm for them early last year nothing seems to have changed ......remains a market pariah and even more so than Oceania

There's an old saying 'once a market pariah always a market pariah'

Hard to see this changing any time soon ....no compelling story to make them great

[Perky]

Hard to see this changing any time soon ....no compelling story to make them great
[/quote]

What about 1/2 price asset sale!

You wonder if any of those big offshore pension funds that like buying long term companies backed with hard assets might find this a compelling buy?

MET was an once an ugly duckling of the sector...probably still is...lol

Imagine if OCA or ARV got taken out at 20% north of todays prices

There would be howls of we was robbed..again.

[winner (n)]

Hard to see this changing any time soon ....no compelling story to make them great


What about 1/2 price asset sale!

You wonder if any of those big offshore pension funds that like buying long term companies backed with hard assets might find this a compelling buy?

MET was an once an ugly duckling of the sector...probably still is...lol

Imagine if OCA or ARV got taken out at 20% north of todays prices

There would be howls of we was robbed..again.

ARV (and OCA) have rarely ever traded above its Book Value and have always been rated (multiples) much lower than RYM and SUM - probably because of perception and performance, who knows

That's unlikely to change

And don'tf orget that 'fair value' or whatever you want to call it is essentially a guess to what NTA might be in a few monthsplus/lessthe present value of future gains/losses from day to day looking after and caring for people .... and these days that is a big cost (loss) to operators

But then again some outfit might be prepared to take on this 'liability' and but ARV out at current price plus 20%

[Onemootpoint]

Could perceptions change though?
RYM does not (at least for the moment) appear to be perceived particularly favourably after their recent manoeuvring. Anecdotally speaking of course.

[winner (n)]

Forbar and their clients still in love with ARV

12.388% is a deçent chunk

[Greekwatchdog]

Forbar and their clients still in love with ARV

12.388% is a deçent chunk

They are not the only ones who have been buying more. Is ridiculously cheap for a long term portfolio. Just thinking they normally do Investor update in March.

[winner (n)]

Jeez 25 million at days end at $1.00

Might be something to do with that 'adjust' session they said was today ...what ever that means

But $1.00 doesn't look too bright does it ...be $1.05 again on Monday though

[Greekwatchdog]

Depends on your time line W69. I really don't worry about this too much. This is certainly part of my Retirement Portfolio so long term for me.

Just be good to see there update. Be due soon followed by F/Y in May.

[Greekwatchdog]

Trading was extended to meet the quarterly rebalancing of the NZX and FTSE Russell Indices, with Arvida Group, Serko, Tourism Holdings and Vista Group falling out of the FTSE Small Cap Index, and Channel Infrastructure entering the NZX 50 in place of Restaurant Brands.

[Breezy]

Trading was extended to meet the quarterly rebalancing of the NZX and FTSE Russell Indices, with Arvida Group, Serko, Tourism Holdings and Vista Group falling out of the FTSE Small Cap Index, and Channel Infrastructure entering the NZX 50 in place of Restaurant Brands.

Other stocks like SPK also had big volume on close, I suspect there is a bit of end tax year squaring going on also.

[winner (n)]

Depends on your time line W69. I really don't worry about this too much. This is certainly part of my Retirement Portfolio so long term for me.

Just be good to see there update. Be due soon followed by F/Y in May.

Investor Newsletter any day now ...last year was first week April.

Number to look for is Total Gains on Sales. They don't usually say the $ and you have to add it up from the chart they put in.

Gains on sales +/- a few million gives you Underlying Profit for the year

Let's hope it's a lot more than $73.5m  achieved in F22