ARV - Arvida Group

[Onemootpoint]

Nice to see the boost in these stocks for a change.

[Untamed]

For anyone who is interested:

Arvida is included.

https://mailchi.mp/nzx.com/virtual-investor-event-19jul23?e=a16d6df77c

[Shareguy]

AGM today 3.30PM

[winner (n)]

AGM today 3.30PM

Look forward to your report later on shareguy ...assuming you back home or participating online

[winner (n)]

Not online ...seems you have to go in person

And 3.30 on a Friday seems a ploy to avoid meeting shareholders ...suppose they are a bit of a nuisance anyway

[lorraina]

I was going to go,however the wife is taking me to 180 mins of Oppenheimer at 2.20pm.

[winner (n)]

I was going to go,however the wife is taking me to 180 mins of Oppenheimer at 2.20pm.

Oppenheimer better choice i reckon

Going next week, just have to make sure I go the right theatre else it's Barbie

[Shareguy]

Did not attend. From notes not much to report not already known other than

From chair

Looking forward, Covid is expected to have a lesser impact on business performance as transmission rates decline. We are also seeing early signs of improved liquidity in the residential property market which is flowing through to sales activity. However, the general election in the third quarter is likely to result in a period of uncertainty for the market, this expected to have an impact on New Zealand's economic activity.
Acknowledging the uncertainties around economic and market conditions, we believe Arvida is well positioned to continue to progress and deliver shareholder value. We are rebalancing our focus across residents, teams and shareholders as we move out of the Covid environment and hopefully transition into a stronger residential market.
In concluding ladies and gentlemen, I would note that while market conditions remain challenging.

Outlook
• Indicators for economy and property market beginning to steady but still with challenges
• Shortages in care workforce stabilising
• Care funding rates increased by 8.6-11.3%
from 1 July
• Lower reported Covid infection rates positive for continued normalisation of care occupancy
• Pending regulatory reviews and sector focus
• Capital market sentiment continues to overhang total shareholder returns

[Shareguy]

Craigs have initiated coverage

Cheaper to buy than build? Initiate with Overweight and $1.43 TP
At $1.24, ARV is currently trading at a 35% discount to NTA, well below its five year average (of 1.1x NTA), and making it arguably cheaper to buy shares in ARV than to build a new retirement village. While ARV's discount is similar to OCA, with which ARV is most often compared, we strongly prefer ARV, given its lower risk development strategy, stronger balance sheet, stronger cash generation, and lower exposure to (low margin) aged care. With ARV also trading below our $1.43 DCF-driven target price, we initiate with Overweight.

[winner (n)]

Quite often lately ARV share price looks weak in the morning and even seems to be heading to 120 or below

How like a little warrior it resolutely fights back and hangs around the 125/126 mark

Good sign punters are supporting them

[Shareguy]

Quite often lately ARV share price looks weak in the morning and even seems to be heading to 120 or below

How like a little warrior it resolutely fights back and hangs around the 125/126 mark

Good sign punters are supporting them

Yes Winner it's been holding up well. Not long ago was under $1.

Wednesday is Sum HY which will give us a good idea on how the property market and cash flow is going for the sector.

[Basil]

Investor news out today and strikes a notably more cautious tone than SUM.
ARV is a far better comparison to OCA than SUM, in my opinion.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARV/419731/404817.pdf

[winner (n)]

Gains on sales in H1 about $38m ...less than the $43m reported last year

This signals Underlying profit will be less (significantly?) than the $39m reported last year

Not a good result ....even if excuse is a lot of sales were made in last month of F23

[winner (n)]

This update might result in some of those optimistic price targets etc being changed (dramatically?)

Arvida proudly displayed this table in update

You cannot view this attachment.

[Waltzing]

"ARV is a far better comparison to OCA than SUM, in my opinion."

can we get back to ...

CARS CARS CARS...

there is no fun in retirement homes compared to the mobility of cars...

Wheeled things in retirement homes are NOT very interesting either...