ARV - Arvida Group

[BlackPeter]

"ARV is a far better comparison to OCA than SUM, in my opinion."

can we get back to ...

CARS CARS CARS...

there is no fun in retirement homes compared to the mobility of cars...

Wheeled things in retirement homes are NOT very interesting either...

You realise that this is the Arvida thread, do you?

... and while fast cars may or may not have their attraction - for a fast growing share of our population is a safe home and good care more important !

I like fast growth ... particualarly when we are talking about market share and opportunities  ;

[Basil]

This update might result in some of those optimistic price targets etc being changed (dramatically?)

Arvida proudly displayed this table in update

You cannot view this attachment.

Agreed, Jarden have the best and brightest analysts.  $1.27 12 month price target with the low dividend yield suggests the shares are currently fully priced at $1.24 now.  Arvida's update does not bode well at all for OCA's half year result next month.

[winner (n)]

More sales than last year but for a raft of reasons gains less .....lnot good

Underlying profit likely to be down on last year ....not good

Definitely hasn't delivered on the eps accretive 'promise' made at that capital 2 years at $1.85

In my view Arvida continues to disappoint .......always showing promise but not delivering ....things don't seem to be getting better even though Jeremy did a bit of a rave about 'green shoots' ...and this Intergenerational Technology Learning sounds fun.

[Basil]

There's no money in care, NONE. 
ARV 43% care 57% ILU.
OCA even worse at about 60% care and 40% ILU.
Capital tied up in care is ostensibly dead money and NTA related to care facilities is almost meaningless and is tripping up a lot of inexperienced investors who think NTA really matters.  Its earnings that really matter, always has been and always will be.
There's a profoundly good reason ARV and OCA share prices both remain in the toilet and will do for the foreseeable future, (see first sentence).
The only company in this sector that is really fit for purpose with the massive costs of providing care going forward is SUM with its care lite business model.  Even RYM have too much capital tied up in care.    Not time to buy SUM yet though in my opinion.

[winner (n)]

I'm surprised that the ARV share price has held up so well after that rather dismal update the other day

Maybe Jeremy talking about green shoots gave holders the warm fuzzies

[winner (n)]

Banks sorted for a few more years

Interesting debt increased by $130m to $775m over last six months ...no worries. Debt ratio at September will be about 35%/36%


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARV/420740/406096.pdf

Recent newsletter wasn't good news .....this announcement indicates more stress ......still surprised ARV share price has held up as much as it has last month

[Basil]

Newsletter indicated satisfactory sales in a very tough market.  What I found most interesting was that ARV care suites sold pretty well.  I know that ARV have the highest number of villages of the sector in the Gold Standard ministry of health 4 year audit cycle so maybe with ARV you really can believe in better...care.

In terms of this announcement this rejog of their bank funding and splitting it between development and core funding and rejigging interest coverage ratio's brings them into line with the rest of the sector so I don't have any concerns there.

Disc: I hold ARV bonds ARV010, not the shares.

[winner (n)]

First half satisfactory sales ......but realised margin and underlying earnings will probably print a lot lower than last year

[Basil]

My prediction is that they're not going to be the only company in this sector that prints a very ordinary number next month.  Hopefully we not all that far away from the bottom in real estate prices and turnover. I'm not sure we are so remaining with no equity exposure to this sector at this point.

[winner (n)]

Jeez, ARV share price down to 115

No worries ....the faithful will come out late afternoon and push the share price back to 120

[Basil]

Just as well those 6 villages they brought a while back were eps accretive eh 

[Shareguy]

I here you re EPS Basil. A common issue it seems with acquisitions. Divi has been cut and should be cut completely in my view. Does not make sense borrowing to pay a divi at these rates.

Still a lot to like with retirement stocks in general. House prices looking positive and national have promised to offer incentives for nurses.

On saying that I don't have a big holding anymore of Arvida or the others.

The quality of the research from Jarden is certainly very high. All the brokers get it wrong some time and some a lot of the time. Gosh I notice Jarden have GNE at $3.05 outperform.    

 

[Basil]

Thing is mate, this was one of the rare times when an acquisition actually did turn out to be eps accretive lol.  I hate to think what eps would be without that Arena acquisition.  Poor mugs like me that funded it though in the $1.85 cash issue.  Tried buying this twice and lost both times.  Should have learned the first time, once bitten twice shy and all that...I hate losses, so I am trying to get them back with the ARV bonds but I'm underwater on them as well lol

[winner (n)]

I have to disagree .......the Arena acquisition was NOT EPS ACCRETIVE.

[Shareguy]

Closed at $1.13🙈