ARV - Arvida Group

[Basil]

No no - this time is different

I predict share price over 130 by Kings Birthday week

LOL, sure...its time for a Tui.

[Shareguy]

No no - this time is different

I predict share price over 130 by Kings Birthday week

I like your confidence Winner. 

[winner (n)]

I like your confidence Winner. 

Another 2 cents today

Might need to review that King's Birthday date for 130

[Crackity]

No posts for a month eh and it's been on a tear

When does Charlie get a year older again?

[Shareguy]

Yes good to see. I think the bad old days of under a buck are gone, unless the review brings in some detrimental changes.

[Shareguy]

Arv to report Tuesday. EPS 22 $0.12 I'm thinking EPS 23 forecast $.11. Which is still a great result in my book. Will they cut the divi. Last year 5.5c

Thoughts ?

[Basil]

There should be no big surprises.
ARV communicate openly and transparently keeping the market updated on a quarterly basis.
Their recent update http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ARV/409551/392164.pdf here indicates they are on track for a satisfactory result of about 11 cps.
I like the way they are proactively managing their debt situation with winding back their development program.

[Left Field]

Results out....NPAT down 59%..... but underlying profit up by 20%.....sssooo otherwise all is fine?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412221

Highlights:
• Underlying profit[1] of $88.0 million, up 20%
• Total sales of $376.4 million, up 16%
• 215 new units delivered
• Gearing at 30.5%
• NTA at $1.90 per share
• Final dividend of 2.35 cents per share

NZX listed retirement village and aged care operator Arvida Group Limited (Arvida) today announced a record underlying profit of $88.0 million for the full year ending 31 March 2023, up 20% on FY22.

Net profit after tax at $82.5 million, which includes fair value movements in investment property, was 59% lower than FY22.

I don't hold so won't comment further ..... good luck holders.

[winner (n)]

Going from the chart in Investor News seems my 'forecast' is about spot on

So Underlying Earnings in F23 likely to be at least 20% up on F22

Pretty healthy eh

Betcha the likes of OCA won't be doing as well.

And so it turned out to be ....UE up 20% and way better than OCA's few %

Still quite a long way short from where they said they would be when acquiring Arena

But times are tough so let's be nice about them.

[lorraina]

I have a small holding.
Thought the result was outstanding in this market.

[winner (n)]

Underlying Earnings up from 12.0 cents/share to 12.2 cents/share (+1%) using weighted average number of shares

Suppose better than going backwards ....and suppose they can say Arena was EPS accretive .....but in saying that the rest of the business must be going backwards

Jeremy ...you need to do better ...but at least do a decent rave to the analysts and they and the market will love you and share price will head to 130 pretty soon ...but possibly not by Kings Birthday

[Basil]

Good result in this market.  Sales were quite good

[winner (n)]

• 59 resales from the Arena villages at an average resale margin of 53%, and price of $910k

That's pretty impressive

Doesn't that imply $58m of resale gains ....but total resale gains on 371 resales was $69m

Doesn't seem to make sense but I orobably a bit thick and read / understood that statement

[Shareguy]

Had a quick look and think the result is very good considering

UNPAT of $88.0m, ahead of consensus for $84.5m on stronger sales volumes in Q4. ARV missed its build target, as had been previously disclosed, with a block at Aria Bay now being completed Q2FY24, but has only maintained prior FY24 build rate guidance for c.200 units.

The "miss current year build target but maintain next year guidance" playbook has now been used by every retirement operator reporting in May, and to be clear amounts to a decrease in total new units completed over the two-year period.

EPS 11.4 with total divi at 4.85c

Gearing is good and cut to divi and build rate should mean no need to raise capital.

Happy I have taken a bigger position.

NTA $1.90 against FY22 $1.84

[winner (n)]

A bit of history re Underlying Earnings EPS

Suppose one could say its going up .... even though F23 was basically flat (in spite of a full year benefit (v 4 months in F22) of that big acquisition

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