GNE - Genesis Energy

[Shareguy]

Yes they will . It will be a key area to look at on Friday as they expire end of 22.

[winner (n)]

Shareguy - so profit going from 439m this year to 441m and then to 454m in F24

Not very inspiring is it ....but suppose its better than going backwards

Divie forecast F22 17.6 (up from 17.4 in F21) to 18.3 over two years - is only 1.7% pa growth (what's inflation?)

Seems they are treating punters as fools

Just as well punters will be happy with a 6% gross yield next year driving share price over 4 bucks

[Left Field]

Ssooo GNE headed for the lofty heights of perhaps 15% SP gain and div yield (say) 6%.

Meanwhile IFT with a div yield of (say) 2% has averaged SP growth over 20% pa over 5 years..... and now has considerable international expertise in 'renewable energy'. (Tilt/Longroad etc)

Which one should we prefer??

 

[BlackPeter]

Ssooo GNE headed for the lofty heights of perhaps 15% SP gain and div yield (say) 6%.

Meanwhile IFT with a div yield of (say) 2% has averaged SP growth over 20% pa over 5 years..... and now has considerable international expertise in 'renewable energy'. (Tilt/Longroad etc)

Which one should we prefer??

 

I guess both cyclicals, where GNE is basically driven by its properties as pseudobond (basically depending on the markets expectations what interet rates will do), while IFT currently seems to be mainly driven by the markets expectations into the infallibility of the IFT manager.

If you expect interest rates to rise, I would leave my fingers from GNE (or any other power stock) ... if you however believe that Reserve banks all around the world will start to chicken out and drop interest rates again, than GNE might be a good play.

IFT is a bit more complicated ... it all depends on how good the fund managers are in predicting future infrastructure needs as well as investor hype waves.

In the past - they sometimes got it right and sometimes they got it wrong (e.g. NZ Bus and European Airports), but recently they had a nice winning streak with good timing of Z-Energy sell, with Vodafone and with renewables and data centres.

If you believe that their winning streak continues, go in. Just make sure you get out before their winning streak ends. This is the secret key to success for any gambler.

For my personal feeling both are currently somewhere in the two upper quadrants of their SP cycle (which is not a good time to buy a cyclical), and particularly IFT appears to be priced for perfection. I am currently holding neither, but hey - my guess is as good as yours.

[Basil]

GNE a de facto bond and gross yield was ~ 8% last time I looked which was very recently.
I think interest rates will head back down next year and 8% will be very attractive.
Disc Hold.

[Plata]

200 MW of baseload geothermal coming online in next few years from contact alone. Without decent increases in demand this might put a dent in Huntly's utilisation. Really interested to hear how the biofuel trials went this Friday

[Raven]

Yes the outcome of the biofuel trial will be very interesting. However even if "very successful", from the little I have read it may then be a tough job scaling up to commercial supply, etc.

[arekaywhy]

Do I have it right that "biofuel" is firewood?

[Plata]

I think it is some form of processed, compressed wood. Not certain and don't think they have explicitly said.

[arekaywhy]

...just like coal except we cut it down?  ...and produce more particulates?

[Plata]

Likely made using low value wood, offcuts and waste products from other industries. Doubt they are growing trees specifically for burning, there is more money in a table and chairs set or new deck than the energy value of the wood itself.

[Shareguy]

Black pellets are produced from forestry or timber mill waste placed under high pressure; the resulting pellets store more energy than traditional white pellets, are denser for transportation, burn hotter, and like coal they can be stored outside without concern for moisture.

[Raven]

"Black Pellets are produced through a process of torrefaction, during which water content, cellulose sugars, and other volatile organic compounds are removed from the biomass to produce a solid biofuel with characteristics similar to those of fossil coal. The main differences between black pellets and standard wood pellets are that black pellets have a 30% higher volumetric energy density, is less subject to biological degradation, is safer to transport and have water resistant properties.
 
These factors lower the transportation and logistics costs of the black pellets. Torrefaction is a thermochemical treatment process that involves heating or "roasting" biomass at temperatures of 200-300°C in the absence of oxygen during which the biomass partly decomposes, giving off different types of volatiles. The final product of the process is the remaining solid, which is referred to as black pellets."

Sounds so simple. Apparently surprisingly hard to actually do on a large commercially viable scale.

[Raven]

Do I have it right that "biofuel" is firewood?

Genesis imported 4,000 tonnes of Black Pellets biofuel from Alabama for the trial.

[arekaywhy]

so after all that, why are they not just going back to the two step - 1) dig up coal, 2) burn coal...seems a bit simpler and less energy wasted