GNE - Genesis Energy

[winner (n)]

Yes $3.00 here we come.   

Amazing what TINA can do

TINA only rationale reason for this excitement around the share price

[Basil]

Wish TINA would work some more magic with Turners...oh hang on a minute, they have their own Tina.
Looking forward to the next divvy, expecting 9.0 cps to be declared on 19 August when they report.

[winner (n)]

I'm thinking about what I'll be doing when share price gets to $3.70

[lorraina]

I expect you will be adding a few scallops to your oysters and chips special luncheons.

[Basil]

Craigs very recently had this to say:-
The analysis suggests that the sensitivity of gentailer stocks to the 10-year government bond
yield has lessened in recent times. Two potential reasons for this could be that investors feel
bond yields have reached a level where they may start to plateau, or possibly that other
factors such as positive sentiment toward electrification is providing a certain amount of
buoyancy to the stocks, resulting in a level of dislocation from historical behaviours. It is
possible that investors are concerned about a recessionary outlook, thus turning to utility
stocks as a defensive strategy, with an expectation that once a recession takes hold bond
yields would likely fall, hence making the gentailer yield more attractive

I NEED to BUY more.  A new and VERY thirsty toy is coming...going to need to all my share and then some as well of that lovely black oil out of Kupe.

[Shareguy]

$3.00 this week all going well. Not long to wait to the result and confirmation of that juicy divi.

[Shareguy]

$3.00 hit today.  $3.50 next?  Go you good thing.

[Shareguy]

Craig's bullish on GNE. Latest note today

Outperform $3.81 and number 1 power pick.

Based on our revised full-year earnings forecasts we reshuffle our sector preference order as follows: GNE remains our top pick based on a relative view of our Target Price to current share price, followed by CEN (previously 3rd), with MEL lifted a place and MCY falling to fourth (downgraded to neutral) due to its strong recent share price performance and accounting for less uplift in mass market pricing than previously estimated..

Expected to support a sustained period of solid earnings for the company.

[winner (n)]

It's likely some punters will only be interested in divie yields next year .....some say interest rates have already peaked and next year they will be a lot lower than they are now.

Maybe a 6% gross yield will be attractive next year ...especially so if it's coming from a safe utility

On forecast dividends that would give a $3.80/$4.00 share price for GNE this time next year

Seems GNE is a BUY ...a strong BUY at todays price.

don't know if this is Craig's thinking but heck they put a target of $3.81 didn't they ....that's spooky

[Basil]

I think they need to lift the dividend more than the pretty miserable 1-1.5% increases they have been over recent years.  Profit will be well up and inflation is running at 7% so I think what would really kick the share price along is a dividend increase commensurate with the inflation rate.

There's really strong growth in EBITDA forecast to be reported shortly so they can afford it.  Show me the money !

[winner (n)]

My understanding of how power companies make money is very limited so I need some educating. Just I've never been inspired enough to learn but have a hefty interest at the moment and they say you shouldn't invest in anything you don't understand.

Seems GNE FY22 EBITAF is going to be about $440m (their guidance and guru analysts in same ball park

To achieve that second half EBITAF going to be about 60% up on last year (pcp)

Just seems to me incredible result -- EBITAF splutters along at $350m/$360m for a few years and then a big spike to $440m

So whats behind this spike? Is it sustainable?

Seems too good to be true - please educate me

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[winner (n)]

Hey basil

That chart in prior post seems to say we should see a decent increase in divie next week

Full year about 21 cents meaning final divie 12 cents plus

But I suppose they'll say we need to hold some back for a rainy day and future developments blah blah

Whose having who on I say

[Plata]

I think it is a mix of falling generation costs, rising sale prices for power and gas as well as the benefit of the carbon credits they stocked up on in the past being realised. Also they took a decent hit a while ago from some dispute about emissions that caused a ~50 million dollar bill, which probably is partially responsible for the sudden jump this year.

[Shareguy]

GNE FY21 result was $358m EBITDA. It was impacted by $60m in one off costs. $33m was the emissions arbitration that they lost and $27m in fixed price carbon credits.

Is the forecast GNE own guidance of $430m to $440m sustainable?

Craig's say it is and forecasting

FY22.  $439m. 17.6 dps
FY23.  $441m. 18
FY24.  $454m. 18.3

So yes not only sustainable but safe and look at that yield. I think still good buying.

Results on Friday

[winner (n)]

Genesis swaption with Meridian expires December and I gather Contact are involved somewhere as well

I assume this is some deal where either can got power from the other if need be

Will the expiration of this swaption have any impact on GNE profits?