GNE - Genesis Energy

[winner (n)]

Basil says ' Has been better in years past but is that entirely relevant in a low interest rate environment where lots of people are chasing yield ?'

Is that TINA still hanging around

[Basil]

There is no alternative to stocks could be said to be under threat from good quality corporate bonds in the mid 5% range.

[Shareguy]

I can't see it going back to $2.50.  They are going to report a large increase in profit due to the high one off costs in Fy21.

Forbar say, We are forecasting modest final dividend increases from GNE (+0.1cps to 8.9cps) and MEL (+0.3cps to 11.5cps). GNE's earnings suggest a higher dividend is possible and we estimate the 17.6cps FY22 dividend represents a 64% free cash flow payout ratio, below the 70% to 90% target range. However, we believe GNE will err on the side of caution as debt headroom is limited and it also needs to factor in declining Kupe earnings after FY26.

Craigs have a target price of $3.80 so upwards and onwards I say.

[winner (n)]

Good one shareguy

Craig's have GNE target $3.80

Like that ........hope they are right

[blackie]

the first installment ($116.67) of the "cost of living payment" to hit many eligible bank accounts tomorrow.

for many this will be welcomed and already allocated to the rising cost of living

but also, perhaps, a significant sum may find its way into the market.

could provide increased demand for stocks like GNE.

I wish I had thought of that before the close on Friday

[Basil]

I can't see it going back to $2.50.  They are going to report a large increase in profit due to the high one off costs in Fy21.

Forbar say, We are forecasting modest final dividend increases from GNE (+0.1cps to 8.9cps) and MEL (+0.3cps to 11.5cps). GNE's earnings suggest a higher dividend is possible and we estimate the 17.6cps FY22 dividend represents a 64% free cash flow payout ratio, below the 70% to 90% target range. However, we believe GNE will err on the side of caution as debt headroom is limited and it also needs to factor in declining Kupe earnings after FY26.

Craigs have a target price of $3.80 so upwards and onwards I say.

I agree and from a chart point of view there's reasonable evidence that we may be in a new uptrend, e.g. clear and sustained break above 100 day moving average.

[winner (n)]

This chart sort of says share price 'deserves' to be over 300

Will be well over when they report a number higher than guidance

You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

I really appreciate all your work with charts and images you do Winner, its super helpful, you're a legend !  As the old saying goes, "a picture says a thousand words" and that's a beautiful image ! 

[Plata]

http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/carbon-prices/report/carbon-prices.pdf

This report delves into other issues around subsidies, however, Box 4.1 on page 123 might interest you.

Does it not strike you as odd that if wind and solar were so cheap, then it should be literally everywhere in the developing world?

That box is dated from 10 years ago, the prices of solar and wind have dropped significantly since then. I imagine there are numerous reasons these sources are not "everywhere in the developing world", but a big factor would probably be that they are intermittent.

[Plata]

GNE's earnings suggest a higher dividend is possible and we estimate the 17.6cps FY22 dividend represents a 64% free cash flow payout ratio, below the 70% to 90% target range.

I hope they stick to the low end of the pay-out range going forward. Being so constrained by debt really limits GNE's options for growth going forward, not so simple raising capital with the govt owning 50%.

[winner (n)]

I really appreciate all your work with charts and images you do Winner, its super helpful, you're a legend !  As the old saying goes, "a picture says a thousand words" and that's a beautiful image ! 

Thanks Basil

Charts are useful to highlight things.

Cold and miserable here today so I did a really cool radar chart comparing the investment attributes OCA and SUM to see which is better bet.

A thing of beauty ... which is good as some say investing is more of an art than science.

Don't think I'll post it here ...might be too 'controversial'

[winner (n)]

Into the 290's the share price goes

Next week we'll be saying 'into the 300's she goes'

Cool

[Basil]

10 year Govt stock rate has fallen a whole 99 basis points since the very recent high of 4.30% (think was in June)  Yesterday closed at 3.31%...not sure what it is today but this is supportive of the rally in stocks we saw in July.  I think this can go higher and am a happy holder for 8% gross forecast FY23 return (based on current price) and like the highly defensive nature of GNE.

[arekaywhy]

wow, the run since mid June...

[Shareguy]

Yes $3.00 here we come.