IFT - Infratil

[LoungeLizard]

More than 20% compounded for 10 years results in tremendous gains over a decade, ask me how I know lol.  I haven't missed anything and have achieved similar results in a different and lower risk way with shares spread and diversified over a much wider range of assets.  I get it why people are happy with IFT's long term performance, I really do but I still believe they are a quasi-fund manager that deserves to be trading close to asset backing.

Well, that's what I'm saying - there's more than one way to invest - growth stocks, dividend stocks, fund stocks, a mix of all. There's little point in being critical of a stock that's patently performed, simply because you have been able to make similar amounts doing something different. It's not an either or.

[Basil]

Fair enough...I'm just fishing around for some new idea's for 2025.  I think Winners comment about the premium to NTA is the best one in this thread for ages and one which resonates with me, which means for me this is not a buy at this point in time, but I totally get it why long-term holders are happy campers.

[mike2023]

You probably have enough exposure to IFT though KFL anyway Basil.

[Mos]

You probably have enough exposure to IFT though KFL anyway Basil.

Ouch. Two slices of eye-watering management fees. Prefer to keep it to one slice myself.

[Red Baron]

Ouch. Two slices of eye-watering management fees. Prefer to keep it to one slice myself.

Or zero zlices?   Just buy ze class of shares zhat Infratil invests een directly?

RB

[mike2023]

Or zero zlices?   Just buy ze class of shares zhat Infratil invests een directly?

RB

And pay full price? Why, when you can get an 8% discount and PIE fund credits.

[Red Baron]

And pay full price? Why, when you can get an 8% discount and PIE fund credits.

Mid Point Valuation of Infratil's CDC Data Centre Stake

September 2023: $3,884m
December 2023: $4,017m
March 2024:$4,058m
June 2024: $4,524m
September 2024; $4,811m

But zhese valuations are not based on 'present day profits'.   Zhey are based on discounted cashflow valuations of 'vuture profits'.   Zo eef ze earnings projections go down and/or ze discount rate to evaluate vuture profits goes up, zhen these data centre valuations vill go down.   By reducing ze zhrae price of other listed data centres, Mr Market eez telling you zhat a revaluation downwards vor datacentres eez already happening.   Zhus ze 8% discount you theenk you are getting, by purchasing Infratil zhares on market at a discount to NTA eez likely illusory. 

RB

[BlackPeter]

You change with the wind. You say that trying to predict the future is a waste of time, now past performance can't be used either. What's left - flip a coin?
...

Your post doesn't make sense. Apart from trying to pick cherries - the two statements you made up on my behalf are not even inconsistent. What is your point?

And no, flipping a coin - while clearly an option - is not an option I would recommend as investment strategy. Ever tried to look at earnings potential, (realistic) growth expectations and asset base? 

If a stock is getting dearer and dearer on PE basis, than either they stand in front of a step change (these things do happen), or more likely they are approaching the next cyclical SP peak.

Sure - IFT seemed to have over the recent years a lucky streak in buying cheap and selling dear assets (though it didn't always work, didn't it), but they managed as well to minimize this way their NTA. Yes, they do hold so called blue chips, but the only thing which is left of their asset base but goodwill is earnings potential - and this is, just looking at their past earnings, quite mediocre. It certainly is now, and considering that every Tom, Dick and Harry is competing with them to build renewable energy as well as data centers ... am I not seeing where huge earnings growth is supposed to come from.

Ever checked by how much the annual income of IFT would need to rise to justify their current share price? But hey, maybe they find again a bigger fool, as they did with Z ... and with the mobile towers to sell their assets, though not yet sure with the latter whether it was the buyer or the seller to take the fools role.

Anyway - always good to hold a share in an uptrend ... just a good idea to get out while it is still up. Didn't seem to have worked for the people who are still holding Spark. IFT in my view shows parallels, and not just the keenness on building datacenters, but as well the asset stripping strategy.

But no doubt - this time it will be different.

[LoungeLizard]

Your post doesn't make sense. Apart from trying to pick cherries - the two statements you made up on my behalf are not even inconsistent. What is your point?

And no, flipping a coin - while clearly an option - is not an option I would recommend as investment strategy. Ever tried to look at earnings potential, (realistic) growth expectations and asset base? 

If a stock is getting dearer and dearer on PE basis, than either they stand in front of a step change (these things do happen), or more likely they are approaching the next cyclical SP peak.

Sure - IFT seemed to have over the recent years a lucky streak in buying cheap and selling dear assets (though it didn't always work, didn't it), but they managed as well to minimize this way their NTA. Yes, they do hold so called blue chips, but the only thing which is left of their asset base but goodwill is earnings potential - and this is, just looking at their past earnings, quite mediocre. It certainly is now, and considering that every Tom, Dick and Harry is competing with them to build renewable energy as well as data centers ... am I not seeing where huge earnings growth is supposed to come from.

Ever checked by how much the annual income of IFT would need to rise to justify their current share price? But hey, maybe they find again a bigger fool, as they did with Z ... and with the mobile towers to sell their assets, though not yet sure with the latter whether it was the buyer or the seller to take the fools role.

Anyway - always good to hold a share in an uptrend ... just a good idea to get out while it is still up. Didn't seem to have worked for the people who are still holding Spark. IFT in my view shows parallels, and not just the keenness on building datacenters, but as well the asset stripping strategy.

But no doubt - this time it will be different.

You talk about forward and backward PE's, potential for earnings growth, management decision making etc, without seeming to be aware that you are engaged in the apparently verboten act of predicting the future and assessing the past. You claim that all investors need to do is assess what a stock is worth today, without thinking it through that in doing so investors will have to consider the future and the past. That's my point.

It's clear that you  have a bee in your bonnet about IFT and that is unfortunately preventing you from perhaps admitting that you missed out years ago (when you were saying the same thing). Most of us find it easy to admit we wished we got on board any number of stocks that did well, because of course, we can't catch them all. But instead you choose to spout revisionary nonsense about 10 years of 20% year on year growth as being "a lucky streak"  and the bubble will burst....soon...later...whenever...

To put the current downtrend (if that's what it is) into context, IFT closed out the 2024 year with the SP at 10.89 - after another year of 22% growth. Today's SP - which is the lowest it has been for the last 4 months - is $11.81. Add in dividends then investors still have made over 10% in what might be construed as a bad year. IFT's target for this year is for total shareholder returns to be 15%. The SP only needs to partially recover for that target to be attained. I think it will.

[seaweed]

Fair enough...I'm just fishing around for some new idea's for 2025.  I think Winners comment about the premium to NTA is the best one in this thread for ages and one which resonates with me, which means for me this is not a buy at this point in time, but I totally get it why long-term holders are happy campers.

Yes, it has done really well in last few years, but have noticed the small downtrend in last 3 months or just catching their breath. The 30day MA crossed over the 60day MA just recently. Like you, wouldn't mind picking up a few at a discounted price but see where it settles. But in the mean time, I have been a bad boy and ended up buying more SPK instead of selling.  I suppose I can look forward to next div of 25c in March.

[Red Baron]

I have been a bad boy and ended up buying more SPK instead of selling.  I suppose I can look forward to next div of 25c in March.

Err try 12.5c.   25 cents eez vor ze vull year.

RB

[Left Field]

From Kiora on the other channel.......(thanks)

AI-Driven Power Boom Will Drive Demand 38% Higher on Top US Grid

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-driven-power-boom-drive-233825622.html

IFT well positioned....

[BlackPeter]

From Kiora on the other channel.......(thanks)

AI-Driven Power Boom Will Drive Demand 38% Higher on Top US Grid

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-driven-power-boom-drive-233825622.html

IFT well positioned....

That's assuming that king Dump isn't killing the windmills as he indicated, isn't it?

[Left Field]

That's assuming that king Dump isn't killing the windmills as he indicated, isn't it?

Nope.....

IFT only builds USA energy supply based on 10 year user/supply contracts plus IFT are currently biased to solar in the USA.

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/longroad-energy-update/

Lastly - If the USA makes things too difficult there will be plenty of alternative options for IFT energy investments elsewhere in the world where IFT already has strong representation (eg Europe/Japan/Singapore/Malaysia etc.)

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/renewable-energy-update/

- Global investment in the energy transition hit a record US$1.8tr in 2023, to reach net zero this needs to almost triple for the remainder of the decade

• New investment in renewable energy reached yet another record in 2023, coming in 10% higher than a year earlier

• Solar was the main driver for growth in renewable investments, accounting for more than half the global total with a 12% year-on-year increase

[BlackPeter]

Nope.....

IFT only builds USA energy supply based on 10 year user/supply contracts plus IFT are currently biased to solar in the USA.

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/longroad-energy-update/

Lastly - If the USA makes things too difficult there will be plenty of alternative options for IFT energy investments elsewhere in the world where IFT already has strong representation (eg Europe/Japan/Singapore/Malaysia etc.)

DYOR - https://infratil.com/for-investors/reports-results-meetings-investor-days/investor-materials/2024-march-investor-day/renewable-energy-update/

- Global investment in the energy transition hit a record US$1.8tr in 2023, to reach net zero this needs to almost triple for the remainder of the decade

• New investment in renewable energy reached yet another record in 2023, coming in 10% higher than a year earlier

• Solar was the main driver for growth in renewable investments, accounting for more than half the global total with a 12% year-on-year increase

Just tried to tease ;

No doubt - wind (and solar) are sensible renewable energy options and (in a energy mix) necessary to stem climate change.

No doubt as well they will survive the idiot government (not just) in the US. President non elect Musk currently pushing a far right anti windmill party in Germany (AFD). He does not even seem to understand that his hyperinflated cars need electricity.

However - renewable energies have currently a lot of political headwind from the extreme right - and it will take at least several years (possibly longer) for this headwind to recede. This was my point.

No matter whether IFT owns a good portfolio of future proof companies (or not - not all renewables will turn out to be as well profitable) - my concern is more that the current IFT investment mix is priced for perfection (which is always a good reason for SP drops) - and the political headwinds against renewable energy coming from the extreme right and dumb does not help.