IFT - Infratil

[bulltrap]

MSCI NZ index......SPK out....... IFT in.

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Nov24_STPublicList.pdf

Looking into what trading patterns to expect around IFT index promotion, here's a counterpart to the 'index removal' charts I just posted on the SPK thread.

Big volume on the 25th is all but guaranteed - let's say around 75M shares. Although that's driven by ETF buying, it'd be unusual for it to push the price up.

If I really squint, there's a pattern that suggests IFT goes up this week, down next week, and up again the following week. But it's only a few percent either way, and the net change is close to zero.

But yeah, there's always other stuff going on in the world to keep us guessing. The ATM chart is a case in point - the drop following soon after the index announcement was triggered by this trading update. Buying into that good news would've lost you 20% within days.

[Left Field]

Looking into what trading patterns to expect around IFT index promotion, here's a counterpart to the 'index removal' charts I just posted on the SPK thread.

Big volume on the 25th is all but guaranteed - let's say around 75M shares. Although that's driven by ETF buying, it'd be unusual for it to push the price up.

Thanks Bulltrap, useful charts.

For me, Index inclusion/exclusion is not in itself a reason to buy/sell any stock, however,  it is encouraging when a stock you have chosen for your portfolio gets caught up in the index hype! lol.

IMO Getting your TA and FA right are the keys to good investing, and in IFT's case the next update scheduled for 14 Nov  will give us much more important info on which to base our decisions.

[Left Field]

Good update today.....operational EBITDAF for the half year of $506 million – a 25% increase on the $400 million from the same period the previous year – with full year guidance on track.

The FY2025 Proportionate operational EBITDAF guidance range has been narrowed at the top end to NZ$960–$1,000 million (previously NZ$962-$1,012 million).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/441869

Interestingly over the last 2 weeks Australian shorters have taken rare IFT negative positions  based I suspect on the USA election results and Trumps "drill baby drill" call as shown here (bearing in mind the 4 trading day delay in this report).... refer.....

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=IFT

Today's update and subsequent conference call calmed fears around the LongRoad USA business which is well protected by 2-3 year forward contracts and although IFT is treading carefully in the US, at this stage it seems the shorters have got it wrong. Ouch.

So maybe some short term volatility due to the shorters...... but longer term IFT looks set to perform well.

Another snippet from the briefing...  following a recent Aust airport sale, IFT's stake in Wellington airport is due to be revalued.... upwards.

[LoungeLizard]

Good update today.....operational EBITDAF for the half year of $506 million – a 25% increase on the $400 million from the same period the previous year – with full year guidance on track.

The FY2025 Proportionate operational EBITDAF guidance range has been narrowed at the top end to NZ$960–$1,000 million (previously NZ$962-$1,012 million).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/441869

Interestingly over the last 2 weeks Australian shorters have taken rare IFT negative positions  based I suspect on the USA election results and Trumps "drill baby drill" call as shown here (bearing in mind the 4 trading day delay in this report).... refer.....

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=IFT

Today's update and subsequent conference call calmed fears around the LongRoad USA business which is well protected by 2-3 year forward contracts and although IFT is treading carefully in the US, at this stage it seems the shorters have got it wrong. Ouch.

So maybe some short term volatility due to the shorters...... but longer term IFT looks set to perform well.

Another snippet from the briefing...  following a recent Aust airport sale, IFT's stake in Wellington airport is due to be revalued.... upwards.

Yeah, I too read about the shorting going on based on Trumps comments. My response was to buy a couple of thousand more. Meanwhile IFT just keep producing the results and their valuations continue to increase.

As you say, LongRoad is contractually well protected in the short-term, but it's also true that at state level the move to renewables will continue. LongRoad operate and are based in Democrat strongholds in both the House and Senate, so even if the Federal Government make things difficult I would expect the State Government to pick up the slack.

[Basil]

Infratil down $1 since 29 October even though its been confirmed it's going into the MSCI index.  Go figure?  What do the Infratil enthusiasts make of that?

[LoungeLizard]

Infratil down $1 since 29 October even though its been confirmed it's going into the MSCI index.  Go figure?  What do the Infratil enthusiasts make of that?

Mr Market moves in mysterious - and occasionally, baffling -  ways. See Spark. Both though have embedded value, and once the disruptors have had their fill, it will be business as usual.

[Basil]

Its bizarre.

[mike2023]

I see a lot of ASX listings influenced by shorts and traders, IFT does seem to be becoming a trader's stock with large movements. I bet if it was entirely ASX it would be worse.

[BlackPeter]

Mr Market moves in mysterious - and occasionally, baffling -  ways. See Spark. Both though have embedded value, and once the disruptors have had their fill, it will be business as usual.

Obviously - one could say as well that at times the market comes to its senses, stops the hype machine and starts to focus on real value (starts weighing). No fundamentals can justify the bubble IFT is currently in. While investing in renewables is the right way, one can pay too much for anything, no matter how sensible it is, particular if the crowds egg each other on applying plenty of Group Think. Hard to find fundamentals justifying IFT's current SP.

And SPK - well, don't get me started ;

[Crackity]

Just over a Bill NZD worth of IFT traded today

Go the passive fundies

[Basil]

Interesting that IFT sat out the global tech rally in the last 4 months of 2024 and is now breaking down through key support levels, (clear breakdown through the 180 day MA for example), and looks very bearish from a TA perspective.  Hype from datacenters now done and dusted?  I am sure long-term investors will not be perturbed in the slightest, but in the short term, maybe more pain to come ?

[KW]

Interesting that IFT sat out the global tech rally in the last 4 months of 2024 and is now breaking down through key support levels, (clear breakdown through the 180 day MA for example), and looks very bearish from a TA perspective.  Hype from datacenters now done and dusted?  I am sure long-term investors will not be perturbed in the slightest, but in the short term, maybe more pain to come ?

It certainly participated in the 2024 rally, exploding from $9.86 to $13.27, with about half of those gains coming post the Sept breakout.

But yes, the data centre hype has been revealed as just that, hype.  See the sell off in NXT as well.  

You cannot view this attachment.

[KW]

Seems I am not the only person left who remembers the dot com fibre roll outs.  

https://www.afr.com/technology/the-wall-of-money-heading-for-data-centres-has-short-sellers-excited-20250106-p5l2ah

High-profile hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has warned of dangers that an investment boom in data centres could result in far too much capacity, casting doubt on the record prices assets in the sector have attracted.

Mr Chanos, in a series of posts to social media platform X, compared the boom in data centre projects to the overinvestment in fibre optic networks two decades earlier. "I can still hear the fibre optic cable guys saying demand was 'infinite' in 2000 because internet traffic was doubling every quarter (it wasn't)," he wrote in response to a post that claimed the demand for data centres was so great that the sector could never build enough capacity.

[LoungeLizard]

Seems I am not the only person left who remembers the dot com fibre roll outs. 

https://www.afr.com/technology/the-wall-of-money-heading-for-data-centres-has-short-sellers-excited-20250106-p5l2ah

High-profile hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has warned of dangers that an investment boom in data centres could result in far too much capacity, casting doubt on the record prices assets in the sector have attracted.

Mr Chanos, in a series of posts to social media platform X, compared the boom in data centre projects to the overinvestment in fibre optic networks two decades earlier. "I can still hear the fibre optic cable guys saying demand was 'infinite' in 2000 because internet traffic was doubling every quarter (it wasn't)," he wrote in response to a post that claimed the demand for data centres was so great that the sector could never build enough capacity.

Chanos is a notorious hedge fund shorter. As much practical use to the traditional, long term investor as a cat flap on a submarine.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting that IFT sat out the global tech rally in the last 4 months of 2024 and is now breaking down through key support levels, (clear breakdown through the 180 day MA for example), and looks very bearish from a TA perspective.  Hype from datacenters now done and dusted?  I am sure long-term investors will not be perturbed in the slightest, but in the short term, maybe more pain to come ?

Sharemarket might just react to various fascist statements that they want to tear down wind generators.

Bad for IFT, but hey - everybody jumping to make Musk and his minions happy.

Musk farts, Trump amplifies and IFT drops.

https://www.semafor.com/article/08/30/2024/german-state-election-state-elections-far-right-afd-centers-anti-wind-energy-stance