HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[BlackPeter]

Good points FM. Its hard though not to escape the conclusion, from the risks you have outlined, that this was a $50m gamble on buying "a fund raising channel" regardless of the potential downside on NIM, legacy costs, NPAT, EPS etc. Similarly, the cap raise needed to fund the purchase had a huge negative effect on shareholder wealth and the next one could be similar.
Perhaps it will all come right but the new risk profile and lower yield of HGH 2.0 doesn't interest a conservative investor like myself. Those that have stuck with HGH, bought in at $1.80, will literally have to wait years to just breakeven. If patience is a virtue, HGH investors are going to have to be saints  

While they say its all about time in the market, whoever says this is wrong. Timing your buys (and sells) is of the essence, no matter which stock you are talking about.

So, yes - anybody who buys any stock at its peak is screwed for a long time, no matter, whether the stock is called GTK, RYM, OCA, HGH, HLG, WHS, FPH - or even MFT or SUM.

You are absolutely correct - anybody who bought HGH at $1.80 clearly made (with the benefit of hindsight) an expensive mistake. However - this is absolutely irrelevant here and now. These things happen with any stock if the hype wave is at its peak. The only relevant question is - is it a good idea to buy HGH now? Do the potential gains at the current price outweigh the clearly still existing risks (nothing in life is risk free).

So, I guess, this is the discussion we should have, not whether people paid at some stage too much for the stock considering its peaks and troughs. Every stock was at some stage in history too dear, including HGH. Boring.

[LoungeLizard]

While they say its all about time in the market, whoever says this is wrong. Timing your buys (and sells) is of the essence, no matter which stock you are talking about.

So, yes - anybody who buys any stock at its peak is screwed for a long time, no matter, whether the stock is called GTK, RYM, OCA, HGH, HLG, WHS, FPH - or even MFT or SUM.

You are absolutely correct - anybody who bought HGH at $1.80 clearly made (with the benefit of hindsight) an expensive mistake. However - this is absolutely irrelevant here and now. These things happen with any stock if the hype wave is at its peak. The only relevant question is - is it a good idea to buy HGH now? Do the potential gains at the current price outweigh the clearly still existing risks (nothing in life is risk free).

So, I guess, this is the discussion we should have, not whether people paid at some stage too much for the stock considering its peaks and troughs. Every stock was at some stage in history too dear, including HGH. Boring.

Yep, fair enough BP. Moving on, but also being aware that history sometimes has a habit of repeating itself. I am of course talking about a cap raise. There's no question that there's another one coming, in whatever form, and that is likely to have a dilutive effect.
The rest - the future of HGH 2.0  - is a matter of debate. I have no skin in the game so if the TA and the next report changes its tune, I may be back in. Good luck to holders in the meantime.

[BlackPeter]

Yep, fair enough BP. Moving on, but also being aware that history sometimes has a habit of repeating itself. I am of course talking about a cap raise. There's no question that there's another one coming, in whatever form, and that is likely to have a dilutive effect.
The rest - the future of HGH 2.0  - is a matter of debate. I have no skin in the game so if the TA and the next report changes its tune, I may be back in. Good luck to holders in the meantime.

Sounds like we are in heavenly harmony  . Most of the posters here see this cap rise you talked about coming (in order to kick start the Australian REL business in earnest) ... and if it works out (and so far I don't see, why not), this will be the bottom of the SP. And obviously - cap rises are always dilutive (per share), no matter whether you add the appropriate amount of cash  to buy more shares, or not.

Still - some cap rises are just to pay out holders on the run (MFB), some are to pay for past sins (like the last RYM CR) and others are a worthwhile investment.

So far I'd see the (likely) cap rise coming as one of the third category.

But I guess time will tell.

[winner (n)]

I think Heartland got to promote themselves as a FINTECH a lot more ....might get some punters in to pump the share price up and take focus off being a bank.

Being 145 years in business implies being old fashioned and rather staid in ways they do things ..but they do things the modern digital way ..like fintechs should.

[Basil]

Kiwi's won the Sail GP today handsomely in the Heartland of N.Z. in Lyttleton Harbour today, (Winner Winner Chicken dinner), and now lead the entire series slightly ahead of the Australians.  Didn't start well but the sailing itself was top notch.  Good Omen for better things going forward with Heartland bank.

[winner (n)]

HGH share price trending up

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[Basil]

HGH was #1 stock most bought by Jarden clients last week according to Jarden Direct website.
MLN was #3   Of course I had nothing to do with this lol

[Basil]

Interesting article by Mark Lister of Craigs, is it time to ditch term deposits?  Plenty of food for thought in this https://craigsip.com/news/is-it-time-to-ditch-the-term-deposits?utm_source=insights-enews-260324&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=is-it-time-to-ditch-the-term-deposits&_cldee=_4DzIPyuZhQxF62tZSAKv5T39qKXqfJ5IW-1VHzb5GRNMHkt9vhZVg7DEuaZ1U63&recipientid=contact-f4e18c1d7f2de8119427005056a307fc-739d472038f94390ae1495d24e66bf50&esid=f2f513df-69e6-ee11-a2ee-00505681265f

What occurs to me for those looking ahead is that by as early as the middle of next year we could be looking at term deposits paying in the 4-5% range.  On the other hand investors in Heartland starting FY26 in July 2025 are looking at a gross dividend yield of 13.81% (based on fully imputed dividends of 11.8 cps which is the average of broker forecasts for that year), see https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/finances/ 

That's about three times the prospective income from HGH shares that a term deposit will pay you and this situation will unfold in less than 18 months.  Hmmm...I think he has a very good point.  Tick tock....

[TGB]

Glad I don't take the DRP and reinvested at $1.15, pulled the trigger just before the dip to $1.12 but won't be worried about 3c long term. I've enjoyed a 12.4%p.a. gross dividend yield since Apr 2020.

Learnt from observing/reflecting that it could have been good to sell at various points and buy back in but HGH has been a great investment even if I could have done better. Nice to see $1.21/$1.22 today

[lorraina]

Interesting article by Mark Lister of Craigs, is it time to ditch term deposits?  Plenty of food for thought in this https://craigsip.com/news/is-it-time-to-ditch-the-term-deposits?utm_source=insights-enews-260324&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=is-it-time-to-ditch-the-term-deposits&_cldee=_4DzIPyuZhQxF62tZSAKv5T39qKXqfJ5IW-1VHzb5GRNMHkt9vhZVg7DEuaZ1U63&recipientid=contact-f4e18c1d7f2de8119427005056a307fc-739d472038f94390ae1495d24e66bf50&esid=f2f513df-69e6-ee11-a2ee-00505681265f

What occurs to me for those looking ahead is that by as early as the middle of next year we could be looking at term deposits paying in the 4-5% range.  On the other hand investors in Heartland starting FY26 in July 2025 are looking at a gross dividend yield of 13.81% (based on fully imputed dividends of 11.8 cps which is the average of broker forecasts for that year), see https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/finances/ 

That's about three times the prospective income from HGH shares that a term deposit will pay you and this situation will unfold in less than 18 months.  Hmmm...I think he has a very good point.  Tick tock....

Hmmm.?........Yes.
"Better to own the bank than putting money in the bank"

[winner (n)]

Hmmm.?........Yes.
"Better to own the bank than putting money in the bank"

Esp when the bank has the 'owners eyes' running it

[LoungeLizard]

Glad I don't take the DRP and reinvested at $1.15, pulled the trigger just before the dip to $1.12 but won't be worried about 3c long term. I've enjoyed a 12.4%p.a. gross dividend yield since Apr 2020.

Learnt from observing/reflecting that it could have been good to sell at various points and buy back in but HGH has been a great investment even if I could have done better. Nice to see $1.21/$1.22 today

HGH definitely a traders stock. The SP has declined 25% in the last 5 years and a whopping 45% since the cap raise was announced only 18 months ago. For holders it has been a nightmare, but some have made a quick buck along the way.

[TGB]

It has been a bit sad to see my gains erode but equally I haven't lost any money either so I can't say it's been a nightmare.

[LoungeLizard]

It has been a bit sad to see my gains erode but equally I haven't lost any money either so I can't say it's been a nightmare.

I get what you are saying - if you've been with HGH for a while you are still in the green. But losing gains is still losing money you might have had, and that's why HGH has become a traders stock - the gains you have at any one time are not secure and you have to be ready to jump in and out, if that's your thing.
 
Or, you could buy into an indexed fund or perhaps a stock like Infratil which has nearly tripled in value in the last 5 years, and with the only odd blip has shown steady, consistent growth. And that's my thing.  

[Basil]

Yep, fair enough BP. Moving on

Please do what you said, it's getting super boring now.  You keep remining us its down XYZ since the last capital raise, over and over and over... like we didn't hear you the first three dozen times.

The only relevant question is - is it a good idea to buy HGH now? Do the potential gains at the current price outweigh the clearly still existing risks (nothing in life is risk free).BlackPeter

Bears repeating as someone has obviously, already forgotten this.