HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[LoungeLizard]

Please do what you said, it's getting super boring now.  You keep remining us its down XYZ since the last capital raise, over and over and over... like we didn't hear you the first three dozen times.Bears repeating as someone has obviously, already forgotten this.

It's a free country, Brother. You can always use the ignore button, like you said.

[Basil]

Good institutional support at the close @ $1.20.  I'm calling it, $1.13, cum the 4-cent interim divvy, ($1.09 ex divvy) was this cycle's low point.

[BlackPeter]

I get what you are saying - if you've been with HGH for a while you are still in the green. But losing gains is still losing money you might have had, and that's why HGH has become a traders stock - the gains you have at any one time are not secure and you have to be ready to jump in and out, if that's your thing.
 
Or, you could buy into an indexed fund or perhaps a stock like Infratil which has nearly tripled in value in the last 5 years, and with the only odd blip has shown steady, consistent growth. And that's my thing.  

Well, might just show off my age, but I do remember times when IFT owners licked their wounds for years after having bought in at the peak. Hint - just switch your time window to 20+ years and look at the nice peak around 2007, and how long it took the people buying at peak to recover their coin.

Always a bit sad, if people praise individual stocks because 5 years is the longest period of time they can remember ...

But sure, everybody needs to decide, whether they want to apply a traders strategy or an investor strategy. Both strategies can be successful (I suppose?), though for some reason one hears more about really successful investors than about traders. I am wondering why?

Not sure, however why anybody would call an undervalued stock like HGH a traders stock? If the fundamentals are right, than this is the time when prudent investors will go in. Only traders would jump in when the stock is already fully valued, wouldn't they?

[Basil]

BP - I think Winners image below says it all.  In terms of high's and lows, HGH does throw up real opportunities of being overvalued and undervalued from time to time.  I call these opportunities "actionable events" Those that can't see this is one of those actionable opportunities should get themselves down to Specsavers really quickly lol.   The only question left in my mind revolves around is this the time to back up the truck or take the more measured approach I have taken so far ?  Hmmm...I guess fortune favors the brave...

By the way, off topic, you've just made an outstanding point about Infratil.  I just looked up the long-term chart on Yahoo finance, (Jarden only goes back 10 years) and it wasn't until 2018, 11 years later that IFT made a meaningful break about its 2007 peak.  That's more than 11 years of going nowhere while Morrison and Co milk shareholders for their ongoing egregiously high fees.  Maybe we're due for another decade plus long period of woeful performance after the last 5 years of outperformance?  My Marlin units NAV is up 26% since 1 November 2023 and yet IFT have barely participated in the international markets strong rally since then.  Hmmm....no wonder some are trying to talk it up.

WE HAVE TAKEOFF

Share price on its way to above $2 again

Over $2 it becomes 'overpriced' and one needs to keep a close eye on the charts to assess when maximum return is likely and SELL

Price/Book preferred multiple for me .....but at end of day it's essentially the same as Basil's peer group multiples monitoring.

FYI average P/B has been about 1.35 ......the recent tops seen share price at about $2.20 and about $2.50 respectively.

Main thing is we are on our way back

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[Fiordland Moose]

Can't eat NAV - Marlin SP up only 10% from 1 Nov 2023 till now.

VOO/SPY on the otherhand, up 2.3x that.

Am rooting for Basil's call on HGH to be correct.

[Basil]

Two juicy dividends between then and now on MLN, you can definitely eat those  , but I get into the DRIP at a 3% discount.  Think shares were trading at a premium to NAV back in early Nov and a decent discount now.  I bought in solid numbers @ 86 cents in early December and had just under 4 cents in divvies since then so quite content with that.  Approx 19% gain in share price incl divvies since early Dec. 
Is it time to back the truck up on HGH FM   

[Fiordland Moose]

Just giving you a stir.
Never invested in the LICs as prefer to go directly in ASX stocks and access US etfs directly via IBKR. Wrong thread but one thing I always wondered about was the discount to NTA seemingly representing value. I would have thought given the LICs come with high forever mgmt fees a discount should apply to them to represent the present value of perpetual mgmt fees. If doing this you'd need to addback any provision for mgmt & performance fees as you'd double count one years worth of fees. Sorry off topic I know

[Left Field]

Hey Basil, your figs on IFT above seem a bit out of kilter (specially as you use NAV BRM's recent performance.) I'll post some figs on the IFT thread for you.

[Basil]

In the appropriate thread I have previously highlighted how on average over the years they have well and truly outperformed their benchmark index's (the relevant index adjusted for a degree of FX hedging) after fees and tax.  If it weren't for that, you would have a point.  The 2% tax free quarterly PIE distributions are ideal for semi or retired investors. Then there's the warrants to play with...
Here's Barramundi as an example.  Adjusted NAV return after fees and tax for 5 years 14.6% per annum, annualized.  ASX200 Benchmark is 9.2% 70% hedged to $N.Z.  That's a 5.4% per annum outperformance after all fees and tax and it's a tax-free PIE so distributions are tax free in my hands.  I have a real boatload of Barramundi, (the last 3 months in particular, with them have also been a lot of fun) and a lot of Marlin. https://barramundi.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/

LF - Go onto Yahoo Finance and bring up a 20 year chart for IFT and see for yourself.

[winner (n)]

Director Harvey (or his wife) took the divie in shares by way of DRP

Be interesting how many insiders did as well ...esp our Greg

[LoungeLizard]

Well, might just show off my age, but I do remember times when IFT owners licked their wounds for years after having bought in at the peak. Hint - just switch your time window to 20+ years and look at the nice peak around 2007, and how long it took the people buying at peak to recover their coin.

Always a bit sad, if people praise individual stocks because 5 years is the longest period of time they can remember ...

But sure, everybody needs to decide, whether they want to apply a traders strategy or an investor strategy. Both strategies can be successful (I suppose?), though for some reason one hears more about really successful investors than about traders. I am wondering why?

Not sure, however why anybody would call an undervalued stock like HGH a traders stock? If the fundamentals are right, than this is the time when prudent investors will go in. Only traders would jump in when the stock is already fully valued, wouldn't they?

I bought into IFT only a few years ago, so that's my own personal timeframe. I'm not too interested in what was happening 20 years ago - totally different company in a totally different phase of operations. 
Have a look at the recent chart postings on IFT thread. They tell the real story. And the prospects going forward are exceptionally good.

[BlackPeter]

I bought into IFT only a few years ago, so that's my own personal timeframe. I'm not too interested in what was happening 20 years ago - totally different company in a totally different phase of operations. 
Have a look at the recent chart postings on IFT thread. They tell the real story. And the prospects going forward are exceptionally good.

Well, those who are not interested in learning from history are bound to repeat it. This is roughly how the saying goes, isn't it?

If you want to know how greed, hype and fear is contaminating all threads, then just have a look at e.g. the ups and downs of e.g. ATM (A2M) and e.g. RYM or OCA - and lets face it, while Groupthink is a popular leader, it never turned out to be a good guide.

Have a look as well into the other channel, they do have a longer history (and admittedly still more trolls). Amazing collection of hyped up and hyped down threads.

But I forgot - you said you are not interested to learn from history. In my view a lost opportunity, but sure - in this case: enjoy the ride!

[Shareguy]

According to the ABR Bendigo Bank looks to exit its Reverse Mortgage book "Homesafe" (c$500m) due to the capital it is consuming.


 

[LoungeLizard]

Well, those who are not interested in learning from history are bound to repeat it. This is roughly how the saying goes, isn't it?

If you want to know how greed, hype and fear is contaminating all threads, then just have a look at e.g. the ups and downs of e.g. ATM (A2M) and e.g. RYM or OCA - and lets face it, while Groupthink is a popular leader, it never turned out to be a good guide.

Have a look as well into the other channel, they do have a longer history (and admittedly still more trolls). Amazing collection of hyped up and hyped down threads.

But I forgot - you said you are not interested to learn from history. In my view a lost opportunity, but sure - in this case: enjoy the ride!

When did I say I don't learn from history? That's the opposite of what I've been banging on about HGH of late. It's a question of relevance - there's relevent, recent history and then there's the not so relevent, far distant past. 20 years is interesting in a historical sense but not relevant to the trends of today. You point towards IFT being in the doldrums for quite a few years - many of the most successful companies on the NZX and internationally, started very slowly, making losses in some cases. There's plenty of people who would have liked to have invested in Apple, Amazon or Xero or FPH.
Interesting you mention ATM - life changing investment for me. 

[Teitei]

HGH share price trending up

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$1.27 - big move towards the retracement to $1.40?