HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[LoungeLizard]

Yes, you've mentioned that many, many times now and every single analyst out there disagrees with you and so do I.

Fair enough.I'm not saying I will turn out to be right, but as you so often say, it's good to hear an alternative viewpoint. You don't learn anything in an echo chamber. Let's see what the end of year report has to say, shall we?

[Shareguy]

Yes, you've mentioned that many, many times now and every single analyst out there disagrees with you and so do I.

Its the only NZX stock that I am adding currently.  Agree there is risk, but agree with Basil and others that downside should be limited. I'm prepared to take the risk but agree could be wrong.

[LoungeLizard]

Its the only NZX stock that I am adding currently.  Agree there is risk, but agree with Basil and others that downside should be limited. I'm prepared to take the risk but agree could be wrong.

Long term you should be fine. HGH are a solid business but have over-reached a bit and there is -and will continue to be - some weakness in the SP. The graphs all show that. The Cap raise will create a new low. Challenger will need to become profitable in itself, not be a deadweight that drags the other profitable arms of HGH down. It will be a long haul for many before they see the green again in their investment. And I say again - just to annoy Basil - the yield may not be that great for a few years. But if you have the patience of Job and time on your side, you will probably be ok.

[Basil]

Gave fair warning above. Thank goodness for the ignore button lol  Sorry LL, life's too short to read the same negativism regurgitated dozens of different ways.

[LoungeLizard]

Your prerogative, mate. The viewpoint I have re HGH is not really for you anyway - your mind is clearly made up. Just adding a cautionary, balancing note for those who might feel there's some quick money to be made. And since I'm no longer a holder I really don't care much which way this goes. I hope I am wrong actually, so no one gets burnt again, like last time.

[winner (n)]

Not only Greg.
The whole team hold a lot of shares.
Could say they have "The Owners' Eye".

"The Owner's Eye" eh ....they seem to have taken their eyes off the ball ...like the Crusaders

Both need to pull their socks up pronto

[Basil]

Greg Tomlinson's stable of listed companies not doing too well eh.  Big stakes in this and OCA, both in the dog box.  Maybe he's past his prime ?  Hope his horses are performing better otherwise they'll end up as dog tucker lol.

[Ricky Bobby]

Greg Tomlinson's stable of listed companies not doing too well eh.  Big stakes in this and OCA, both in the dog box.  Maybe he's past his prime ?  Hope his horses are performing better otherwise they'll end up as dog tucker lol.

Add seeka to this list as well... not many divs coming in...

[Fiordland Moose]

Back in early 2022 Jarden raised $60m in convertible notes from family offices to shore up its balance sheet as it expanded into Australia. I understand Greg is one of the larger noteholders. Conditions not been kind to Jarden since. They've folded their wealth management business into FirstCape, releasing $90m in cash back to Jarden. I'd wager Greg is keen to receive some of his capital back.

[Fiordland Moose]

I would like to see a $200mil placement to an Aussie intos.

+1

well, perhaps 2/3 to AU instos, balance as rights issue, with the later being the lower of insto placement price or a discount to vwap post completion of the institutional placement.

[KW]

Its almost as if its being priced like Challenger is to Heartland what Ansett was to Air NZ.  Those Aussies really see the Kiwi's coming lol
https://www.bankingday.com/challenger-red-faced-once-more-in-banking

[lorraina]

Early Challenger Bank AU deposit market experience
exceeding Heartland expectations
• Challenger Bank is actively raising deposits ahead of
being acquired by Heartland Bank and will continue to do
so. This will enable Heartland to optimise the advantage
of a lower cost of funds post-acquisition completion.
• Recent success of Challenger Bank in the AU deposit
market has exceeded Heartland's expectations.
• In the seven-week period commencing 8 January 2024,
retail deposit growth of $528 million was achieved, at a
rate which is 1.34% lower than Heartland Australia's
current cost of funds.

Looking as though HGH have Challenger Bank moving forward  on the right track very quickly.
ps.HGH's market share of Aussie   REL is 43%.Think that is already an outstanding success.
Challenger Bank fast growing deposits are proving HGH made the choice.

[Left Field]

Crikey quite a difference between KW's article on Challenger Bank and HGH's optimistic commentary.

SP reflecting this uncertainty.

[lorraina]

Look at the date of KW's article,and note HGH's was this year[27th February].

[KW]

Crikey quite a difference between KW's article on Challenger Bank and HGH's optimistic commentary.

SP reflecting this uncertainty.

Yup, if you're banking (pun intended) on a turnaround, its usually better to wait for the turnaround to occur.  Because as Buffet says "Turnarounds seldom do".  This is the problem with buying shares in a downtrend, you might be waiting years for the share price to recover, losing even more in the interim, or being permanently stuck in a turnaround that doesnt.

That and NZ companies buying underperforming Australian companies in order to gain market share, after the Aussie owners have already cash stripped them bare, fills me with dread.  Didnt just happen to Air NZ but a long list of Kiwi companies, like The Warehouse's foray into Australia with Silly Sollys