HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Syd]

Expect a lot of "technical adjustments" to keep the headline figures looking healthy.

And the flip-side of that coin is??

And here's the contrarian Lizard for another bite, I don't know why you guys give him oxygen .

[Basil]

And here's the contrarian Lizard for another bite, I don't know why you guys give him oxygen .

Sometimes pictures or video's are better than words 😉
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_XTNXRvkBYA

[LoungeLizard]

And here's the contrarian Lizard for another bite, I don't know why you guys give him oxygen .

It's a free country, brother.

[winner (n)]

Heartland profit announcement next week

FY23  underlying was $110.2 (Real $95.9m)

In August 23 gave Guidance F24 underlying $116m to $122m

In December said $108m/$112m. (Real $93m to $97m)

So likely to make less than F23 and maybe even less than F22 ...goodness knows what Real NPAT will be

So as Basil says F25 guidance is key part of announcement

Could even come out with underlying $110m ....what a disaster that would be

Even underlying $120m would be disappointing ...seeing that would likely be changed downwards early next year.

Not looking too good in my opinion ....and hate to say the lizard might have been right

[Greekwatchdog]

It's a free country, brother.

No its not, maybe for some that live in NZ, but you are allowed to share your opinion. Just be careful how you come accross.

[Basil]

The adage 'it's always darkest before the dawn' rings loud and clear here, Winner. The chart looks promising. I'm content to let others chase after the market's favorites with their sky-high valuations while I choose to invest in value stocks that boast compelling metrics and excellent prospects for earnings growth in the coming years. To each their own. The future prospects of HGH are closely linked to the economy, and I believe we have passed the darkest days.

[LoungeLizard]

The adage 'it's always darkest before the dawn' rings loud and clear here, Winner. The chart looks promising. I'm content to let others chase after the market's favorites with their sky-high valuations while I choose to invest in value stocks that boast compelling metrics and excellent prospects for earnings growth in the coming years. To each their own. The future prospects of HGH are closely linked to the economy, and I believe we have passed the darkest days.

You could well be right regarding HGH, but I'm not sure about the NZ economy as a whole. A lot of economists aren't sure either. Many people are struggling with inflation baked in, interest rates still high, the construction industry - a reasonable barometer of the countries mood - is "challenging." Public spending is being cut so there's that as well. In the last business survey 65% expected a continued deterioration in NZ's economic circumstances. The companies that have exposure to OZ - like HGH and HLG - may do better. But for HGH to do well, Challenger has to do well and that is still yet to be determined, although we will know soon enough on that I guess.

[Shareguy]

There is risks, so it's good to have the good and bad opinions.  We have not had any disclosures so I expect FY24 to be as per guidance. I see the risk's already built into the share price. Still not at terp of $1.17. When you compare price to book HGH is nearly half the Aust sector average.

I agree this is all about FY25 onwards. The reduction in the divi to 50 percent was for FY24 only from 70/75%. I'm expecting an increase to perhaps 60 %.

Open banking with account portability has the potential to be a game changer for the smaller banks including HGH. The future is bright, very bright in my opinion.

[Left Field]

I have a regular coffee with an 80yr old retiree who is in the hands of a Jardens 'wealth manager'  who has been giving my mate some questionable advice recently (eg recently recommending AIR, FBU and THL as companies to buy because they will benefit from the coming low interest environment!?)

He was rung last week and recommended to sell his Westpac shares and buy HGH.

Question is...... is this advice a HGH sell signal or a HGH buy signal.. !!??

Watching this week with interest.

[Teitei]

I have a regular coffee with an 80yr old retiree who is in the hands of a Jardens 'wealth manager'  who has been giving my mate some questionable advice recently (eg recommending AIR, FBU and THL as companies to buy because they will benefit from the coming low interest environment!?)

He was rung last week and recommended to sell his Westpac shares and buy HGH.

Question is...... is this advice a HGH sell signal or a HGH buy signal.. !!??

Watching this week with interest.

I understand analysts are all a bit at sea with HGH because the bank has not been interacting with them much since the Challenger acquisition.

And nothing make analysts nervous than not getting their forecast and assumptions verified by companies!

And imo with HGH in a way, rightly so as management have their hands full integrating Challenger into HGH. Plus, would have been premature to indicate anything until at least 6 months into the integration process.

Hence, much nervousness heading into the results on Thursday.

One way or the other, we will find out on 29th August.

[winner (n)]

I have a gut feeling that all is not right with Heartland these days.

Things don't seem to be like they used to be. In the past I've been confident in their ability to perform but no more do I have that feeling. Too many things 'just don't gel' in my opinion.

Yeah I know they have this multi year strategy to generate ever increasing profits. In light of their recent track record iI think one should take their plans as hopeful intent. That doesn't mean they are lying, just that we really don't necessarily know what they can or cannot do. There is a particular danger that be using language that resonates with man it's almost certain to happen. But saying the right things can lull one into believing that ....but I've learnt in the past that things that haven't worked out recently often don't work out in the future.

That's how I see Heartland today. Ive acted on that gut feel ...OK they say you shouldn't act on gut feel but I reckon it's often more right than wrong.

Next week will be interesting ......and I hope I'm wrong

[Teitei]

I have a gut feeling that all is not right with Heartland these days.

Things don't seem to be like they used to be. In the past I've been confident in their ability to perform but no more do I have that feeling. Too many things 'just don't gel' in my opinion.

Yeah I know they have this multi year strategy to generate ever increasing profits. In light of their recent track record iI think one should take their plans as hopeful intent. That doesn't mean they are lying, just that we really don't necessarily know what they can or cannot do. There is a particular danger that be using language that resonates with man it's almost certain to happen. But saying the right things can lull one into believing that ....but I've learnt in the past that things that haven't worked out recently often don't work out in the future.

That's how I see Heartland today. Ive acted on that gut feel ...OK they say you shouldn't act on gut feel but I reckon it's often more right than wrong.

Next week will be interesting ......and I hope I'm wrong

Market shares your view W69.

That's why HGH's sp is where it is.

Limited downside but plenty of upside imo.

[Basil]

Limited downside but plenty of upside imo.

That's how I see it too.  Let's flip this coin...seeing as I have quite a bit on coin invested here.  Heads you win and over the next few years earnings grow nicely, and the metrics return to some sort of normality, (PE expansion plus earnings growth could quite plausibly see a doubling in the share price over the next few years or somewhere around that level), or tails, despite the well know 20% CAGR in Reverse home loan mortgage demand, for some reason unknown to me neither growth in eps nor a reversion to a normal PE of about 13 or anywhere around that level doesn't happen and the shares stay around the current level, perhaps only head a little bit higher as their circa 10% gross yield for FY25 and beyond becomes more attractive as interest rates fall.
Food for thought for the naysayers.  If tails occur, (i.e. the bearish outcome) is that really a loss?

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/finances/
Market expectations.
FY24 $93m
FY25 $118m
FY26 $150m

[winner (n)]

Analysts forecast $150m ....I think they've been seduced by a glossy presentation with all the words they wanted to hear

Even that F25:looks rather hopeful ....but we should know cone Thursday

[Basil]

~ $30m per annum extra NIM just with lower costs from funding reverse home loans with retail deposits rather than wholesale funding and that's before you consider they have a multiyear track record of 20% CAGR in those low-risk loans.  One morning soon you'll wake up and smell the coffee that HGH have never traded on such a deep discount to NTA or PE relative to Australian banks before.
Keep in mind there's now 930.56m shares on issue so FY26's average analyst forecast of $150m is 16.1 cps.  Put a normal mid cycle PE of 13 on that and $2.10 is on the cards for late 2025.  Mate, you snooze, you lose😉