HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Teitei]

They do say HGH shares are inextricably linked to the performance of the economy...and gosh haven't we seen ample evidence of that in the last year !  Hopefully the darkest days of the economy are behind us now and we can look forward to Spring, both literally in terms of the weather and metaphorically in terms of the economy.

Looking forward to results next week.

If HGH affirms that provisionings are under control and the integration of Challenger Bank is on track, am expecting the sp to track towards $1.25 as a first move. 

Bring on 29th August!

[snapiti]

Looking forward to results next week.

If HGH affirms that provisionings are under control and the integration of Challenger Bank is on track, am expecting the sp to track towards $1.25 as a first move. 

Bring on 29th August!

get out of my head tt, literally word for word my thoughts

[Shareguy]

Open banking should be a game changer for Heartland.

https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2024/a-stronger-kiwibank-and-open-banking-could-shake-up-nz-banking-sector

[LoungeLizard]

Looking forward to results next week.

If HGH affirms that provisionings are under control and the integration of Challenger Bank is on track, am expecting the sp to track towards $1.25 as a first move. 

Bring on 29th August!

And the flip-side of that coin is??

[Basil]

And the flip-side of that coin is??

If they were not on track to meet the FY24 guidance, they would have already made an announcement.

[LoungeLizard]

If they were not on track to meet the FY24 guidance, they would have already made an announcement.

Well, we all now khow provisions can be made below the line, as can many other things that may point to troubled waters ahead. The devils in the detail. One way or another 29th August will either give substance to the SP recovery or it may throw a curve ball. I'm hoping for some substance at which point I might throw some $ at HGH.   

[Basil]

I concur that the FY25 guidance will be a crucial factor, yet I am fully aware that the complete advantages of funding Australian reverse mortgage loans with retail deposits won't materialize until FY27, owing to existing hedges and contracts related to wholesale funding until that time.

From my perspective, investing in HGH involves looking beyond the present economic downturn, projecting 2-3 years ahead, and hoping that in the interim, there won't be a significant unexpected impact from delinquent loans.

[Shareguy]

It's our Jeff's last results. Would expect that he will be raiding any provisions to make this result look good.

Tempting to add more but going to wait for the result. One of my brokers has been buying for clients and for himself. Said "well under valued".  Not long to wait.

[LoungeLizard]

As has been noted on the TWR thread, the Suncorp CEO justified getting out of banking saying that they were too small to viably meet the increasing costs and capital requirements. HGH are a slightly different beast with their reverse mortgage business but I'm still nervous about Challengers prospects in the long run. Will the next 2-3 years be good for the small banks?. I'm still unconvinced at this stage, but willing to be proved wrong.   

[Basil]

It's our Jeff's last results. Would expect that he will be raiding any provisions to make this result look good.
Tempting to add more but going to wait for the result. One of my brokers has been buying for clients and for himself. Said "well under valued".  Not long to wait.

Certainly, there's deep value and it's not without risk—though that's true for any market area. I believe all the risks are more than accounted for in the price, so I purchased some more today. After all, fortune favors the brave. 😊

[Gerald]

2 interesting charts, top one price to book according to Tradingview, second one by the rocketman on X from Westpac.

Looks very cheap when you add in some option value of the retail herd returning and a repricing to 1.5+ P/B, hope all you guys do well.

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[Shareguy]

Harmoney down to $0.40. HGH might have to write down the value again.

[winner (n)]

Harmoney down to $0.40. HGH might have to write down the value again.

Booked a $1.9m gain December half year

HMY gone from 48 at December to 38 as at June so decent write down coming in full year results. No worries as doesn't count as it's a 'non-cash technical adjustment'

Soulf get a positive gain in F25 eh

[LoungeLizard]

Booked a $1.9m gain December half year

HMY gone from 48 at December to 38 as at June so decent write down coming in full year results. No worries as doesn't count as it's a 'non-cash technical adjustment'

Soulf get a positive gain in F25 eh

Expect a lot of "technical adjustments" to keep the headline figures looking healthy.

[Basil]

Future share price direction.  Its all going to be about the forecast for FY25.  Market is a forward-looking beast, always has been and always will be.