HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner (n)]

thl today scrapped their $100m by 2006 target ....all too hard and unrealistic

Suppose Jeff will scrap his $200m by 2008 target on Thursday ....all too hard and unrealistic

[Greekwatchdog]

thl today scrapped their $100m by 2006 target ....all too hard and unrealistic

Suppose Jeff will scrap his $200m by 2008 target on Thursday ....all too hard and unrealistic

Assuming you mean 2026 and 2028 W69.

Jeff will look to go out on a high.

[winner (n)]

Assuming you mean 2026 and 2028 W69.

Jeff will look to go out on a high.

It's $200m+ in 2028

Jeff probably looks at that slide and says to himself what the heck was I thinking back then

[Teitei]

[/quote]

so I spent the last hour drilling into HGH 1/4 numbers for June available for all to see on the RBNZ website, not sure how long they have been available but the smart money would have seen this and now explains the solid 15% rise in SP over the last few weeks.
All the metrics are there including asset class allocations, comparisons with other banks over the last 4 1/4's.
Many metric's to research however this is my top 4 metric's I want to know.
NIM increased a whopping 10% 1/4 on 1/4
Loan book continued to grow yoy however decreased 1/4 on 1/4.  A breakdown of the numbers indicates a move away from riskier loans. (like given the circumstances)
Impaired assets decreased 1/4 on 1/4 (this is huge IMO given the climate)
Home loans increased but the rate of increase continued to slow
All in all a lot better than expected and IMO these numbers show a well run bank during the hardest of times........suspect we will get a good response come reporting day 

A few interesting numbers :

Profitability

HBL's H2 NPAT = $32.4m, 26.5% up on H1's $25.6m.

Impaired asset expense = $18.3m, down 24% on H1's $24m.

Asset Quality as at 30 June 2024

Impaired loans $61m vs $64.3m in 2023

Total non-performing loans $180.5m vs $136.6m in 2023

[Basil]

August 2027, HGH forecasts $185m in FY28, the shares hit $2.50 and Winner thinks, what the heck was I thinking back then, I could have more than doubled my money in 3 years.

[Fiordland Moose]

Aye non performing loans that are unprovisioned have crept up. So fair to question how well provisioned the business (non rm) book is.

Credit metrics look mostly good as well as they should after the cap raise as they kept it I recall correctly 25m for the NZ business. But the liquidity ratio has come down and sticks out - illustrates the company isnt really producing much cash and much of the reverse mortgage earnings is something being capitalised and added to existing balances. Hgh need the housing market to speed up to kick start voluntary repayments.

I think the reporting format is going to look a lot different this year end. Ie will section off legacy assets in one subgroup and the other divisions seperate

Expect it will be messy per normal with new divisional accounts, non recurring transaction expenses from the cap raise and challenger acquisition, etc. and shouldnt expect much from challenger as it will take some time to raise all the deposits to completely refinance the australian wholesale funding. So probably something for everyone (bears and bulls) to argue over when revealed this week.

[Left Field]

I have a regular coffee with an 80yr old retiree who is in the hands of a Jardens 'wealth manager'  who has been giving my mate some questionable advice recently (eg recently recommending AIR, FBU and THL as companies to buy because they will benefit from the coming low interest environment!?)

He was rung last week and recommended to sell his Westpac shares and buy HGH.

Question is...... is this advice a HGH sell signal or a HGH buy signal.. !!??

Watching this week with interest.

ps THL was another of the shares a broker recommended to my mate 2-3 weeks ago..... along with HGH more recently.

Today he's glad he didn't buy FBU/THL......still waiting for HGH.

[Basil]

With lower interest rates and an economy that's hopefully on the mend, I hope they can rehabilitate the vast majority of those non performing loans.

A week or so back I bought more Tower, Heartland and Argosy shares, all at $1.12 each.  I expect to do well out of at least 2 of them and one will probably not do much other than pay a decent dividend yield and that's okay.  We'll see which is which over the next few years.
All 3 have one thing in common, they're value stocks supported by very attractive metrics and a very decent dividend yield so even if all three go sideways i still get highly attractive income to support my hobbies and interests in my semi-retirement years.  I'm happy for others who buy the market darlings on super lofty PE's or tech stocks on no earnings at all and do well out of them but that's not my gig and never will be.   Each to their own.

[snapiti]

Aye non performing loans that are unprovisioned have crept up. So fair to question how well provisioned the business (non rm) book is.

Credit metrics look mostly good as well as they should after the cap raise as they kept it I recall correctly 25m for the NZ business. But the liquidity ratio has come down and sticks out - illustrates the company isnt really producing much cash and much of the reverse mortgage earnings is something being capitalised and added to existing balances. Hgh need the housing market to speed up to kick start voluntary repayments.

I think the reporting format is going to look a lot different this year end. Ie will section off legacy assets in one subgroup and the other divisions seperate

Expect it will be messy per normal with new divisional accounts, non recurring transaction expenses from the cap raise and challenger acquisition, etc. and shouldnt expect much from challenger as it will take some time to raise all the deposits to completely refinance the australian wholesale funding. So probably something for everyone (bears and bulls) to argue over when revealed this week.

I  tend too Agree about the bull/bear debate, SP reaction, after Ann, will say a lot

[Teitei]

I  tend too Agree about the bull/bear debate, SP reaction, after Ann, will say a lot

Looks like Mexican standoff at around $1.15 until results.

Who dares, wins!

[Shareguy]

Comes across well.


https://www.mpamag.com/au/mortgage-industry/business-growth/heartland-bank-australia-ceo-outlines-growth-plans/502956

[winner (n)]

From that Dash Board thingie HBL ROE looks a bit sad ..... as A2 would say it's  mid single digit

[Basil]

Comes across well.
https://www.mpamag.com/au/mortgage-industry/business-growth/heartland-bank-australia-ceo-outlines-growth-plans/502956

Highly experienced with a clear vision for the growth of the company.  Very good hire.  I am confident she will lead the team well and drive awesome growth in the business in the years ahead.  I am also confident the naysayers will keep saying nothing is proven yet despite Heartland already having the market dominant position of 40% of the reverse home loan market in Australia lol   

[Teitei]

Like I said in an earlier posts if the RBNZ numbers are accurate HGH has proven to be a very well run bank in very difficult times.
Now another consideration is their rural lending portfolio.
There has been a major decrease in the cost of fertilizer inputs over the last 3 months, milk payout has risen to a very healthy $9 and beef cattle and deer prices are close to an all time highs.
I can see $1.25 by weeks end

Attempting to break above the $1.15 level ... excellent chance it will go through to $1.25 if the $1.15 holds today.

[Basil]

TA looking VERY robust.  Just touched the 180 day moving average @ $1.17... Primed and ready for a breakout.    Volume on the offer side looking very thin.