HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Left Field]

While the HGH TA indicators are improving...... it's taking place with no new information.

A bullish update will ensure HGH's long awaited resurrection.

(but on the other hand...... yes well... don't go there.)

[LoungeLizard]

Isn't HGH far leaner and more efficient than those bloated whales and their hundreds of branches and tens of thousands of branch/call centre staff?

I guess, but these whales provide a much broader range of services and communities still want their banks to have a high street presence. HGH is a niche digital bank appealing to a much narrower section of the community. Which is why their risk profile is much higher - they only need one aspect of their business to fail and things go south rapidly. Which is why Challenger is pretty much a make or break thing for HGH. I'd want to see that bear fruit before I invest in HGH, but that's just me.

[snapiti]

While the HGH TA indicators are improving...... it's taking place with no new information.

A bullish update will ensure HGH's long awaited resurrection.

(but on the other hand...... yes well... don't go there.)

not sure they need to provide a bullish statement to have the SP go up from here, I think the SP has priced in a very modest result and outlook. My biggest concern with the economy like it is was we got a downgrade prior to the results, however I believe we would have seen that by now.
Big trades going through last thing Friday shows we are still filtering through weak holders from the cap raise. Going forward I suspect there will be a heap of profit taking $1.08 $1.10 ish level, but confident we will see this price soon.
Anyways nice to see green on my purchase price for a change

[Basil]

Some say that once broken out of a channel it's form a new channel just as wide

Channel amplitude about 40 wide which implies 170 on cards

Tend to agree that a breakout is imminent prior to the result.  I expect a modest result but the outlook if satisfactory, will be the key. We could then see a significant rerate.

[Teitei]

Tend to agree that a breakout is imminent prior to the result.  I expect a modest result but the outlook if satisfactory, will be the key. We could then see a significant rerate.

not sure they need to provide a bullish statement to have the SP go up from here, I think the SP has priced in a very modest result and outlook. My biggest concern with the economy like it is was we got a downgrade prior to the results, however I believe we would have seen that by now.
Big trades going through last thing Friday shows we are still filtering through weak holders from the cap raise. Going forward I suspect there will be a heap of profit taking $1.08 $1.10 ish level, but confident we will see this price soon.
Anyways nice to see green on my purchase price for a change

Two CRs in 18 months are a huge ask for any company, let alone a high dividend yield stock like HGH in the equity unfavourable settings over the same time. I sense however that the market is not that far off from leaving the CRs indigestion behind.

Meanwhile, I am very comfortable with HGH's reverse mortgage business from a business and risk perspective based upon the experience of a Melbourne contact last year.

He had to raise funds to revitalise his business post Covid and despite having a mortgage free home, he could not get a mortgage or funding from the other banks.  So he went to HGH via my recommendation and after putting him through hoops and loops (the paperwork! The compliance! The credit checks!), he obtained funding last year.  It was expensive funding compared to other mortgages and the LVR allowed was only 40%.  So relative low risk lending at high rates - great combination for a lender!

His business has since recovered and he has paid back more than half the reverse mortgage back. He said he would only use reverse mortgage again under similar circumstances but would prefer not to as it is expensive (yet low risk for HGH!).

The capital intensive nature of the reverse mortgage business can be alleviated via second tier funding (subordinated notes) and of course, when the business reaches scale so there's only a small lag between repayments and new lendings.

Cannot see HGH needing to CR again for a while and if it does, it will be because business is booming and there would be strong institutional support for a placement.

HGH imo is set to perform.

[KW]

Not that I follow it at all - but all those that follow TA/Charting probably noticed HGH had a big break above the 50 day moving average, the first time this year it has managed to move above it.

Those of us that follow TA realise that is completely meaningless.  Wake me when its the 200 day MA.

[Basil]

Okay, wakey wakey KW.  TRA just broke up through their 200 day MA.
On HGH - I'm no TA expert but looking at the chart it looks suspiciously like it has built a bottom in the last 3 months.  That said, I can understand why some people want to see more TA evidence.  I am a buyer in the late 90's if it goes there again as the FA at that price is truly compelling.  I think this winter is the trough in this economic cycle and I also think the performance of HGH is inextricably linked to the performance of the economy.

[BlackPeter]

Those of us that follow TA realise that is completely meaningless.  Wake me when its the 200 day MA.

Interesting - are you saying that TA is a faith based religion with its followers having believes which are separated from the laws of mathematics?

If it would be based on maths, then obviously for any trend change the SP would first go through MA50 and then it may or may not go through MA200, which means the MA50 (or any other of your favourite MA's) is not "meaningless", it just has a lower reliability in indicating a trend change than a MA based on a longer time frame.

Quite standard risk vs reward balance. The earlier your indicator, the higher the risk you get the prediction of a trend change wrong, but the higher the reward if you get it right.

There is nothing magic about the MA200.

[snapiti]

Looks to me that a fund is building a stake in HGH, the high volume will hopefully take care of the quick 10% profit takers around the 1.07 to 1.10 range although that will be a lot of shares.

[Basil]

Looks to me that a fund is building a stake in HGH, the high volume will hopefully take care of the quick 10% profit takers around the 1.07 to 1.10 range although that will be a lot of shares.

Yeah, I have also been noticing the very large increase in volumes in the last few days.
Maybe the guys at Discovery funds have discovered this and are actioning a new position based on the extreme deep value on offer ?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Those of us that follow TA realise that is completely meaningless.  Wake me when its the 200 day MA.

So you would only buy in after it hit $1.30 (current 200 day)?

Could you even tell anyone that after missing 30% upside?

[snapiti]

Yeah, I have also been noticing the very large increase in volumes in the last few days.
Maybe the guys at Discovery funds have discovered this and are actioning a new position based on the extreme deep value on offer ?

yep and whatever fund is buying knows they can pick up a sizable stake being profit taking first time since it bottomed @ 96 and circa cap raise at $1

[winner (n)]

HGH Book Value about $1.30 so at $1.06 still pretty cheap

Say P/B of 1.3 is share price about $1.70

Something to look forward to

[Basil]

We'll never see $1 again

[Shareguy]

We'll never see $1 again

I hope not.  Would be very surprised. Tempting to buy more but already have plenty.