HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[LoungeLizard]

No one knows where the bottom is in a share price, just like no one knows when the next disaster will happen. The thing with Tower, is that its all benign on the claims front, also premiums have sky rocketed.

It will only take 1 weather bomb or disaster to change that

Yes true, but TWR have a substantial (45m) large event provision that 10 months into the reporting year has gone unused. Even if that provision is all used up by some catastrophic weather event in the next couple of months, guidance is still for $40m profit. So I think the risk is manageable and to some extent it's more transparent than HGH's, which needs Challenger to be profitable from day 1.

But, horses for courses. In the last 12 months Towers SP has rocketed and HGHS has continued on its death spiral. Lets see how the next 12 months go.

[BlackPeter]

Yep, spot on - the market sentiment was against HGH ever since two value destructive capital raises. It was like the market suddenly saw that they were being taken for a ride.

But my point is that there were those that refused to see the writing on the wall and ignore that sentiment but then when the sentiment shifted slightly ( as we see now) they are all of a sudden gung ho. I guess we are all guilty of that - selective reasoning - but until the fundamentals change it's all just speculative chatter.

 Maybe buying in early - like participating in the CR at $1 or buying in now at $1.06 - may turn out to be the best time to maximise gains, but it is also the time that maximises risk, because there's nothing to back the upswing other than a few overenthusiastic punters. It just could be a classic blip that we see all the time. I've said it before - I'd rather miss the potential early gains and wait until the genuine green shoots appear. And if I want to take a punt - Tower has proved (and in my opinion will continue to prove) to be a better option
(TWR :up 63% in 12 months, HGH ; down 39% !!)

Is this Lizard a snakeoil merchant?

Look - I don't follow Tower and am not interested. Pretty annoying to have these constant shameless and baseless promotions for an irrelevant theme polluting the good Heartland thread.

I only remember that many people lost a lot of money with Tower and other insurance companies. Pure speculation. But again - this is the Heartland thread, so I suggest you put your TWR up-ramps / "promotions" for anybody interested in gambling with the insurance lottery into the appropriate thread.

[snapiti]

No one knows where the bottom is in a share price, just like no one knows when the next disaster will happen. The thing with Tower, is that its all benign on the claims front, also premiums have sky rocketed.

It will only take 1 weather bomb or disaster to change that

not exactly true, Tower has a maximum exposure to anyone event, last year was $12m this year will be higher maybe $15m per event

[Basil]

Pretty clear looking at the chart the bottom is in at 96 cents, but you stick with it being in a death spiral if you like because that suits your narrative.  By all means join KW and wait for a break up through the 200 day MA at about $1.30 and leave the first 35% recovery on the table for me and others.

One day you will wake up and realize that HGH already have a lucrative reverse home mortgage business in Australia with demand growing at a 20% CAGR and they are backing this highly profitable business into Challenger from day 1, so yes, guess what...it is profitable from day 1.

[Basil]

Is this Lizard a snakeoil merchant?

Look - I don't follow Tower and am not interested. Pretty annoying to have these constant shameless and baseless promotions for an irrelevant theme polluting the good Heartland thread.

I only remember that many people lost a lot of money with Tower and other insurance companies. Pure speculation. But again - this is the Heartland thread, so I suggest you put your TWR up-ramps / "promotions" for anybody interested in gambling with the insurance lottery into the appropriate thread.

Well said.  Tower is a highly cyclical business highly susceptible to earnings shocks from insuring homes and other stuff venerable to weather events in an environment of extreme global warming.  What could possibly go wrong in future years lol

[snapiti]

now back to HGH, it will be good to see high volume for a few days in a row, normally when an insto is taking a stake in any company they will go hard then take a day or two off to keep everyone guessing. I reckon a total of 25m shares need to be bought @ current levels to get through the profit takers, we have seen about 10m   

[snapiti]

Pretty clear looking at the chart the bottom is in at 96 cents, but you stick with it being in a death spiral if you like because that suits your narrative.  By all means join KW and wait for a break up through the 200 day MA at about $1.30 and leave the first 35% recovery on the table for me and others.

One day you will wake up and realize that HGH already have a lucrative reverse home mortgage business in Australia with demand growing at a 20% CAGR and they are backing this highly profitable business into Challenger from day 1, so yes, guess what...it is profitable from day 1.

I would suggest it maybe sometime before we are at $1.30 in the meantime the 200 DMA will continue to decrease, in 30 days if the SP is around current levels the 200DMA will be more like $1.20, that aside buying under or at $1 was to irresistible to me   

[Basil]

I would suggest it maybe sometime before we are at $1.30 in the meantime the 200 DMA will continue to decrease, in 30 days if the SP is around current levels the 200DMA will be more like $1.20, that aside buying under or at $1 was to irresistible to me   

Fair comment.  Maybe it will come down to about $1.25 in the weeks ahead and they will only miss the first 30% upside.
RBNZ to start cutting in August ?

[Left Field]

Look - I don't follow Tower and am not interested. Pretty annoying to have these constant shameless and baseless promotions for an irrelevant theme polluting the good Heartland thread.

When looking to make an investment in the financial sector it is sensible investing to compare a company with its peers. Comparable P/E's and EPS  within a sector are valid  and widely used FA comparisons.

As pointed out in post #1369 on this thread there are more  similarities that make comparisons  between TWR and HGH relevant.  Both HGH and TWR are Finance sector stocks. Both much beaten down in recent times. Both undergoing considerable changes and both possibly overdue for rerating etc etc.

So at the risk of annoying your personal sensitivities,  it is perfectly relevant to discuss the HGH/TWR comparisons.... and the charts in post #1369 highlight the rewards (to date)  of not having your head stuck in the sand.

Those with an open mind should check out ForBars latest research on the sector.  $1.50 value seen in TWR. https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/publications/TWR-2024-06-12-Calm-Claims-Help-Elevate-Profit-Projections.pdf

[Basil]

You are drawing a very long bow and making a very spurious argument saying TWR and HGH are comparable companies.  Please stick to the TWR thread skiting about your profits there. I am sure the vast majority of posters on this thread would prefer that.

Hey Snapper.  Maybe sellers are running out of shares to sell ?

[snapiti]

You are drawing a very long bow and making a very spurious argument saying TWR and HGH are comparable companies.  Please stick to the TWR thread skiting about your profits there. I am sure the vast majority of posters on this thread would prefer that.

Hey Snapper.  Maybe sellers are running out of shares to sell ?

hope your right Basil brush, but I am still thinking we are stuck at this level for sometime unless they come out with a stellar report (unlikely), afternoon is when the big traders step in

[Basil]

hope your right Basil brush, but I am still thinking we are stuck at this level for sometime unless they come out with a stellar report (unlikely), afternoon is when the big traders step in

Suits me mate, I want more and I am happy to take a "dogged" approach 

[LoungeLizard]

Is this Lizard a snakeoil merchant?

Look - I don't follow Tower and am not interested. Pretty annoying to have these constant shameless and baseless promotions for an irrelevant theme polluting the good Heartland thread.

I only remember that many people lost a lot of money with Tower and other insurance companies. Pure speculation. But again - this is the Heartland thread, so I suggest you put your TWR up-ramps / "promotions" for anybody interested in gambling with the insurance lottery into the appropriate thread.

Jeez, relax mate. People compare companies performance all the time. Comparison is not promotion. As for :constant" - I think there's been probably three references. I'd hardly call that ramping. Anyway, the point has been made - there's more than one way to bring home the bacon.

[Basil]

Well, I'm glad to finally be out of "underwater purgatory" with this one.  HGH has a very long history of performance tied inextricably to the N.Z. economy and I feel we're past the darkest days of winter, both figuratively and metaphorically.
Onwards and upwards from here.  I'm hoping for 60-70% gains from here in the next 2-3 years plus I note average broker forecast of 8 cps in dividends fully imputed (11.1% gross yield) for FY25.  I can foresee that yield growing very strongly in the years ahead as dividends revert to their historical level.
Huge growth in reverse home loans on both sides of the Tasman.

If we get 70% SP gains in three years and 11% per annum in gross yield each year over 3 years shareholders will double their money.    Yeah...NAH, can't happen...or could it even happen sooner ?

Average broker forecast for FY25 is 13.23 cps.  Put a normal mid cycle (for HGH) PE of 13 on that and we could easily see $1.72 as early as next year !
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HEARTLAND-GROUP-HOLDINGS--47041144/finances/
I'm going to get some more.  "Some guy" said "Be Greedy when others are fearful" Hmmm, I wonder who that was   

[KW]

It's been called the best-kept secret for older Australians, but the deep discount offered by the government's reverse mortgage scheme is now so blatantly obvious it's more like an open secret – participation in the scheme has boomed tenfold since 2019.
New data shows that the Home Equity Scheme – where the government offers reverse mortgages at less than half commercial rates – has changed from an obscure scheme to a mainstream product with participation figures reported in the year to March at more than 12,000 people, up from 700 in 2019.
And why not? Any older person looking to tap into the value of their family home can get the government mortgage at a set rate of 3.95 per cent (unchanged in the last budget).
Meanwhile, commercial rates are more than twice this level, with rates climbing towards 10 per cent. Commercial mortgages have fewer restrictions, but the effectively discounted rate the government offers is clearly a powerful trade-off.
The boom in reverse mortgages (where the applicant generally sells part of their home to an institution in return for regular income) was always going to happen with the escalation of house prices occurring while owner-occupiers on fixed incomes were facing inflation.
But the take-up has been accelerated by a change of regulations, which allowed financial advisers to recommend the government scheme alongside commercial products.
Commercial reverse mortgages have also been growing quickly, but nothing like the pace of the government scheme.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/older-australians-have-rushed-the-governments-cutprice-reverse-mortgage-scheme/news-story/078bbc965063057ca05c8a71a2af07ff?amp