HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Teitei]

I'm bound to say that we've seen these false dawns and blips in HGH many times, some very recently. This may be the start of the recovery but we won't know whether it is real or speculative until the end of year results.

Pig (the CR with the underwriting overhang) is still moving through the python.

HGH's sp performance lags the other banks by a long way - plenty of catching up to do when the pig is fully digested.

[Basil]

Nailed it with that comment mate, I couldn't agree more.

[LoungeLizard]

Pig (the CR with the underwriting overhang) is still moving through the python.

HGH's sp performance lags the other banks by a long way - plenty of catching up to do when the pig is fully digested.

Comparing HGH's metrics/ performance with a high street bank is indeed like comparing a pig with a python.

[LoungeLizard]

While that's fair comment, it's also fair to say many parts of the market, especially interest rate sensitive stocks, have appreciated markedly in recent days on nothing more than a wing and a prayer of hope that green shoots might start emerging this spring.  It seems quite evident we're at, or very, very close to the bottom of this economic cycle and also food for thought on your other comment about end of year financial results, HGH is by no means the only company with potentially has some skeletons that might be lurking in the closet.  Plenty of risk evident elsewhere in the market including in some stocks that have made a complete and utter hash of things in recent years and yet have appreciated nearly 20% in recent days (I'm looking at you RYM as a classic case in point). 

True what you say, but the big banks have a scale and resiliency which makes them a breed apart from HGH. There's no correlation at all between the  graphs of say, ANZ, and HGH. You could be looking at totally different industries for all they are worth.

 Maybe the banking industry as a whole is at the bottom of the cycle as you say, but there are risks attached to HGH that are peculiar to it - the whole Challenger deal (and what lies beneath) and the capital intensive nature of both Challenger and the reverse mortgage business. The risk profile of HGH is higher so it needs to outperform the big banks in order to compensate for that risk. Other-wise, if the banking industry is on the up, why not invest in ANZ or banking/finance funds and reduce that risk whilst still getting the gains.

Maybe the end of term report card will be a beauty, in which case I might get on board myself. But not before.
Fool me once....

[Teitei]

Comparing HGH's metrics/ performance with a high street bank is indeed like comparing a pig with a python.

That's not what the analogy is about but hi, pigs when they get moving actually move a lot faster than pythons!

[winner (n)]

HGH has a Beta  of 1.03 while ANZ Beta is 0.8 (5 year monthly)

Implies HGH share price is going to perform in line with the market while ANZ is likely to move less than the market

[Basil]

For mine, confession season is almost over. If HGH were going to update their FY24 forecast it would have happened by now.

The correlation between HGH and the peer group I follow has been surprisingly close over the last decade. notwithstanding the significant differences in their business models.  The last year or so has been unprecedented in terms of the vast divergence of their respective share prices and metrics.  (Like 5 standard deviations different)

BRM already have a sizeable allocation to Australian financials, so I don't need to replicate that elsewhere in my portfolio.

[Teitei]

HGH has a Beta  of 1.03 while ANZ Beta is 0.8 (5 year monthly)

Implies HGH share price is going to perform in line with the market while ANZ is likely to move less than the market

HGH is a slow burner - slowly heading towards the runway for liftoff.

As long as HGH's results are in line with market, fully expecting HGH to outperform the other banks from hereon in.

[Basil]

HGH is a slow burner - slowly heading towards the runway for liftoff.

When it does take off it might do so in this manner, skip ahead to the 2.00-minute mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jHVTy_V_e0&t=2s

[Left Field]

Strong closing with circa 2 mill shares crossing at $1.03

TA looking much improved too. Both MACD and RSI looking encouraging.

Basil might be right that $0.97 was the 'bottom'......(mind you I think he had 2 earlier less successful attempts. lol. )

GLH.

[Basil]

96 cents, bought lots more there and yes I did lol. 

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not that I follow it at all - but all those that follow TA/Charting probably noticed HGH had a big break above the 50 day moving average, the first time this year it has managed to move above it.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

True what you say, but the big banks have a scale and resiliency which makes them a breed apart from HGH. There's no correlation at all between the  graphs of say, ANZ, and HGH. You could be looking at totally different industries for all they are worth.

 Maybe the banking industry as a whole is at the bottom of the cycle as you say, but there are risks attached to HGH that are peculiar to it - the whole Challenger deal (and what lies beneath) and the capital intensive nature of both Challenger and the reverse mortgage business. The risk profile of HGH is higher so it needs to outperform the big banks in order to compensate for that risk. Other-wise, if the banking industry is on the up, why not invest in ANZ or banking/finance funds and reduce that risk whilst still getting the gains.

Maybe the end of term report card will be a beauty, in which case I might get on board myself. But not before.
Fool me once....

Isn't HGH far leaner and more efficient than those bloated whales and their hundreds of branches and tens of thousands of branch/call centre staff?

[Cod]

Down channel doing its thing, 1.28 breakout price to top trendline, big double trix cross suggests will hit upper trendline, AVWAP cross suggests price will hover for a bit.You cannot view this attachment.

[winner (n)]

Down channel doing its thing, 1.28 breakout price to top trendline, big double trix cross suggests will hit upper trendline, AVWAP cross suggests price will hover for a bit.You cannot view this attachment.

Some say that once broken out of a channel it's form a new channel just as wide

Channel amplitude about 40 wide which implies 170 on cards