OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[Basil]

Last year Brent was very positive at the annual meeting how sales have gone year to date, (didn't turn out to be true at all)...this year, as you suggest, he's much more opaque.  I liked the bit where Brent says their care to ILU ratio is currently 60% but within 2 years it's going to be 45%.  I'll believe that when I see it and not before.  Bit like their promises of previous acquisitions being eps accretive...

Don't you find it strange that they never mention earnings per share in any of their presentations or speeches?  If you keep telling yourself you are doing well by certain other measures whether that's asset growth, patient care, staff engagement and satisfaction, lowering emissions or whatever other KPI's you choose and ignore eps the tendency is to end up believing your own B.S. that you really are doing well and then putting your hand up for more and more money and bonus's.

Remarkable how the only time they mention eps and eps accretive is when they are raising fresh capital and wanting more money out of you lol.

[winner (n)]

Liz might have described shareholders as 'experienced investors' but they were treated as idiots

[Gerald]

The brother Brent is so polished he could probably sell wildlife documentaries to David Attenborough. Must have been to toastmasters or some such 

Got to be careful being too polished though, can easily come off as slippery. Pity he didn't get a single decent question after the undoubted thorough preparation.

[Mos]

Posts above seem on the mark unfortunately. Radio silence on nearly 5 months sales since 31 March does not inspire confidence with OCA's history of waxing lyrical about any metric that could possibly be construed as positive. I was expecting some commentary on how The Helier sales are going and any headway on the selling through the very large inventory of care suites. But nothing.

[Waltzing]

Property prices ... pretty sure that is what this sector is really about although health care is part of it right? The gurus on this sector will be waiting good news on the property price front?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/300957138/property-guru-dont-expect-to-make-money-in-next-few-years

[winner (n)]

Property prices ... pretty sure that is what this sector is really about although health care is part of it right? The gurus on this sector will be waiting good news on the property price front?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/300957138/property-guru-dont-expect-to-make-money-in-next-few-years

He's a good guy that Olly

[Crackity]

He's a good guy that Olly

Unless you remember Landmark Properties 🤭

[Whacc]

The brother Brent is so polished he could probably sell wildlife documentaries to David Attenborough. Must have been to toastmasters or some such 

Got to be careful being too polished though, can easily come off as slippery. Pity he didn't get a single decent question after the undoubted thorough preparation.

Need to grease things up more when the teflon wears off.
Then what once appeared slick turns slimey.

[winner (n)]

Other channel reports that 6 apartments have been sold  at The Hellier

Not worthy of mention at ASM apparently so probably waiting for the big unveil at the half year announcement

And apparently 'technical issues' meant online questions were lost ..... oh dear

[Basil]

Forest a reliable sort of guy in my opinion.
How is it that RYM and SUM in particular seem to achieve vastly higher presales level's than this?
With all the marketing and lead up time to this development its quite extraordinary that less than 10% of the apartments are now sold.   Worse, without question these would be the premier units with the best sea views sold to MINO's (money is no object) customers so wouldn't care less about the extraordinarily expensive weekly opex fees at the Helier.  (Many others may find the weekly opex very off-putting).

I think those forecasting underlying eps of 11 cps are miles off the mark and yet another year of disappointment is ahead of them, this one differentiated only by lower dividends as OCA's debt level's continue to rise to, in my opinion, above 40% which must be concerning.
Some very pointed comments on OCA on the other channel today, most notably by Poet.    Compulsory reading in my opinion and hits the nail directly on the head.

[Waltzing]

Is the real questions what percentage of the nations net work in housing and what percentage is in business and export producing assets?

 

[Basil]

Over 1,000,000 traded at 74 cents so far today, the bottom of the recent trading range.
Will it hold and bounce off that level or will we see a breakdown and it head in the 60's ?

My view is management were quite positive on sales in the 2022 meeting but both half year and full year sales turned out to be extremely disappointing.  At their most recent annual meeting as we all know, there was no mention of sales so reading between the lines they are really struggling this year.  It seems the market simply doesn't want their small boutique style village units and prefers the larger full facility village units provided by their competitors.  Holding costs for their several years' worth of care suites are really now starting to bite and with 10 year Govt treasuries now at 16 year high's this is only going to get worse in the years ahead.

They must be very close to breeching their debt servicing covenants in terms of cash flow and with the highest gearing in the sector (and probably the weakest sales), I think the chances of a deeply discounted capital raise in the year ahead is looking ominous.

The silence in regard to any announcement on sales success with their 10+ old loss-making care villages that have been on the market for ages now is deafening.  Never mind... they are really kicking goals with their carbon reduction so all is forgiven.  (sarcasm).

Just as well they have been able to maintain their dividends at 4-5 cents per annum....oh hang on a minute....
I think the chances of there being no dividend at the half year announcement in late November is getting higher...not that anyone in their right mind is holding this for the yield.

[Hectorplains]

Ducked lower again today... like it's looking for a 6 to go in the front. 

A fair few traded though,  1.3m

[Buzz]

Ducked lower again today... like it's looking for a 6 to go in the front. 

A fair few traded though,  1.3m

Maybe EOM rebalancing going on, there's not enough depth on the buy side to accommodate the sell volume that has gone through. Speaking of which, the buy side has collapsed and there's a wall of asks, so the TA breakdown I suggested in another place has happened and there's little or no support between here and the recent low $0.66

Whether that's a gift or not I suppose is up to individual interpretations, but it's bascially half of NTA. Like if they could sell every asset now and realise NTA and payout that to shareholders, you'd get double what you would get selling on the sharemarket right now!

Strange times we live in, this is a very weird market right now, we haven't seen this across the market for at least a decade, its not just OCA, it takes time to recalibrate our thinking when we've been accustomed for a decade to sustained growth in everything.

I smell long term opportunity everywhere, even if my name is not Buffet. Remember that the posted gross yield is BS. Real yield is based on what actually you pay for it and what it actually returns, net, to you.

[Whacc]

I liked the bit where Brent says their care to ILU ratio is currently 60% but within 2 years it's going to be 45%.  I'll believe that when I see it and not before. 

Everything required to make this statement true will already be well in train, so it's easily fact-checked by just looking at what they have under construction.

These businesses are like container-liners - you can't turn them on a dime.