OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[BlackPeter]

Maybe its time to do a stocktake Untamed.  Nearly six years on from the IPO and the share price is less than the IPO price.  I think you are very "brave" with RYM's long term track record since their IPO to suggest OCA directors and management have better insight than them.

At least with ARV, (and its dirt cheap with an even bigger discount to theoretical NTA than OCA) they have actually achieved some reasonable earnings growth since their IPO.  I'm probably one of the very few to have made six figures from OCA and lived to tell the tale.  Sold most of my shares at roughly twice the current share price but what would I know...

As so often - you pick the data to suit your story. It is quite non sensical to compare the first 6 years of companies who started at different times. If you compare the last 5 years of OCA (yellow line) and RYM (blue line) under comparable conditions, you will see that OCA performed better than Ryman. How do you explain that?

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[Untamed]

Yep, we know that's what you think, but that doesn't automatically mean you are correct. You are primarily a trader so I accept that OCA may not be the best "pick" for your situation. But for those of who are in it for the long term, OCA will do just fine. I am not entirely convinced that you actually fully understand their "business model" - because you really don't understand Aged Care. You are not the only one. Many here do not appear to have even a basic understanding of how the system works in terms of entry to care, what that care entails, and how the government subsidies work. Add to that the fact that most here seem unwilling to accept that the current situation in this country is already at crisis point, with a pending tsunami of hospital level and dementia level cases, fast approaching. The potential market for the provision of care from here on out, is huge.

[winner (n)]

Was somebody desperate to finally getting rid of OCA having to accept 72 today

Hope it wasn't somebody we know.

[Greekwatchdog]

We all have different investment strategies. You are a Momentum Trader so be it. Like many other's I am a long term Investor and have my timeline on OCA. I look forward to 2023/24 and onwards.

I guess with your "Myopic Vision" is that you calling it a great company with great management in 2/3 years when results finally give long term investors what we all new?

OCA is only a long term investment as they were transitioning a number of sites from old to new. You new this when you invested in OCA but have no patience so trash companies, management when it doesn't meet your expectations.

[Shareguy]

At the end of the day no one really knows how a company's going to do and more importantly what a share price will do.  Even the so called experts get it wrong sometimes.

I made the mistake of buying more OCA last year and my average cost is now in the red. Still think long term it's going to do well but agree in short term it's most probably not going to do much. As soon as we see signs of house price stabilisation and interest rates going back down then the retirement sector should improve. All the so called  experts agree though that there is going to be huge growth in the age care sector with massive demand coming through in the next 50 years.

So I'm holding and hope for the best. I also think when it does turn and it always has done in the past, then these beaten down companies are going to look attractive.

[Untamed]

It won't take 50 years. Unless the government (whichever one is irrelevant) decides to take on Aged Care themselves, RV providers will be the only practical option for the provision of care. The NGOs and small private providers can't cope now. It is only a matter of time before they become non-viable.

OCA is sitting in a prime position to pick up a heck of a lot of this market. If they ever decide to take on dementia level care .... you have no idea how huge that would be. Whether that is something they would consider, I have no idea, but "someone" has to provide it. Those who believe there is no money in care, are lacking forward vision.

I'm happy to wait as long as it takes, because I strongly believe OCA is a far "smarter" company than some are willing to consider.

At the end of the day no one really knows how a company's going to do and more importantly what a share price will do.  Even the so called experts get it wrong sometimes.

I made the mistake of buying more OCA last year and my average cost is now in the red. Still think long term it's going to do well but agree in short term it's most probably not going to do much. As soon as we see signs of house price stabilisation and interest rates going back down then the retirement sector should improve. All the so cool experts to agree though that there is going to be huge growth in the age care sector with massive demand coming through in the next 50 years.

So I'm holding and hope for the best. I also think when it does turn and it always has done in the past, then these beaten down companies are going to look attractive.

[Fiordland Moose]

At the end of the day no one really knows how a company's going to do and more importantly what a share price will do.  Even the so called experts get it wrong sometimes.

I made the mistake of buying more OCA last year and my average cost is now in the red. Still think long term it's going to do well but agree in short term it's most probably not going to do much. As soon as we see signs of house price stabilisation and interest rates going back down then the retirement sector should improve. All the so called  experts agree though that there is going to be huge growth in the age care sector with massive demand coming through in the next 50 years.

So I'm holding and hope for the best. I also think when it does turn and it always has done in the past, then these beaten down companies are going to look attractive.

This forum started off well but some collective bad habits have crept back in

I think it would be a great and prudent thing for all of us posters to not make statements like something is a BUY or a SELL and provide a target price. Not only do I believe its an unwise thing to do in the first place, but its not good for the maintainability of the forum. 

Post #278 on this thread a classic example: "After reviewing the result, I have downgraded my target price to 60 cents.  Remaining with a SELL and if you can borrow the scrip, SHORT !" 

I just don't think these sort of price targets and buy/sell recs have a place on this forum. It should be for discussing how a company is travelling, the tailwinds and headwinds present, a discussion around the pros and cons and merits of a share, people outlining their rational for buying, not buying, holding or selling a share. Invariably the discussion may lead to thoughts on if a price may increase or decrease over time or because of certain catalysts, and that is fine in my view, but up to a certain point.

The conversation becomes loaded, and while making a BUY/SELL rec and or target price may look clever if it pans out, invariably with the passage of time it's easy to be reminded of it when things move in the opposite direction. Overall all of that isn't healthy and I personally reckon should be avoided.

[Administrator]

Hey everyone. Once again the OCA is the trouble maker on StockTalk. Is this a coincidence?

If you intend to make negative postings about OCA as an investment, please keep in mind some investors may have lost more than half of their investment in the last few years. Bragging, discussing how sad people must feel or how wrong they are/were is just straight up rude and begging for negative responses. Some of you need to learn how to read the room, and some of you need to learn to use the report and ignore functions. Blowing up a thread with a mess of emotionally charged replies makes it significantly harder to moderate. If you do not know how to use this you can message me or view/ask the help section. It is much easier for me to remove or clean offending posts when no one has replied to them. I am happy to elaborate further via pm as to why if anyone is interested.

It is frustrating to see these bonfire threads start in the same place and for similar reasons every time there is a request for moderation. As you might have noticed, I have taken the axe to many posts from today in an effort to keep content and remove bickering. My apologies if your post has been removed or "cleaned", please understand how difficult it is to define a clean line between useful information and wasteful arguments. Fiordland Moose also makes a valid point. Financial advice is not permitted on StockTalk and I recommend all posters consider their wording when discussing intentions/feelings to buy/sell or when sharing target prices of estimates of fair value. It is important to emphasise these judgements are for informing your own behaviour, not influencing that of others.

I am open to GENERAL suggestions on how to prevent this from happening again in the future.

[Mos]

I have a holding in Oceania. It is certainly a stock that tests patience nearly six years in from the IPO. The inflection and earnings growth is taking longer than anticipated. I think the FY24 year to 31 March 2024 will tell us a lot given Waimarie sales should come through that year. I am not sure we will learn much more in FY23 after the first half with soft new sales and a lot of the new deliveries being care suites which take a long time to sell down and don't contribute much dollar margin initially. I am willing to wait another year or so for the FY24 result to see if Oceania can deliver results.

[Ricky Bobby]

Hey everyone. Once again the OCA is the trouble maker on StockTalk. Is this a coincidence?

If you intend to make negative postings about OCA as an investment, please keep in mind some investors may have lost more than half of their investment in the last few years. Bragging, discussing how sad people must feel or how wrong they are/were is just straight up rude and begging for negative responses. Some of you need to learn how to read the room, and some of you need to learn to use the report and ignore functions. Blowing up a thread with a mess of emotionally charged replies makes it significantly harder to moderate. If you do not know how to use this you can message me or view/ask the help section. It is much easier for me to remove or clean offending posts when no one has replied to them. I am happy to elaborate further via pm as to why if anyone is interested.

It is frustrating to see these bonfire threads start in the same place and for similar reasons every time there is a request for moderation. As you might have noticed, I have taken the axe to many posts from today in an effort to keep content and remove bickering. My apologies if your post has been removed or "cleaned", please understand how difficult it is to define a clean line between useful information and wasteful arguments. Fiordland Moose also makes a valid point. Financial advice is not permitted on StockTalk and I recommend all posters consider their wording when discussing intentions/feelings to buy/sell or when sharing target prices of estimates of fair value. It is important to emphasise these judgements are for informing your own behaviour, not influencing that of others.

I am open to GENERAL suggestions on how to prevent this from happening again in the future.

Thanks admin. Business is business and this forum should treat it so. I get a hell of lot of insight from these forums and truly value the discussions. Let's take the emotions out of the chat and just focus on the business. I actually like it when people put on their price targets as gives me an indication of where the room sees the stocks. As long as they do it in way that is respectful! I hold some OCA as a long term investment, they are a bit different to the other operators and that's why I have decided to go with them. The next few years will be a bumpy ride, but that's life also!

[winner (n)]

Hadn't looked at my OCA forecast for a while so with latest property and other relevant reports out had a go.

Reckon Underlying Earnings will be $57m - less than pcp and means H2 was down quite a bit.

Cash Flows seem top of mind these days and OCA wil burn through even more cash this year. Even my AFFO (proxy for operating cash flow and seen as a better measure than Underlying Earnings) is negative,

Never mind as they'll borrow to keep the dividend coming.

What the market thinks will be up to Brent and how shiny / positive his presentation is but unless he does a good job with that possibly see negative impacts on share price come May/June. Something in the 60's even

My view only so don't get grumpy if ypu think differently - you could even put up a case to convince me it could be a great result and much better than last year

[Breezy]

quick buy the banks they look like a real Bargain today......

get a Bargain and forget buying old homes you have to do up...

Offering financial advice is a no no, read admin post above.

[winner (n)]

One of key things form property data reports is the sales volume number. Retire sector sales numbers seem to follow the overall property market - didn't Brent say the bottom has fallen out of the market or something similar

Sales volumes continue to trend down and are at multi year lows .... bould to have some impact on OCA sales volumes (esp new units) and Underlying Earnings

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[Waltzing]

Dont buy any stocks today... its too riske...

this is not financial advise... stay home... dont move... dont even think,,,,, its too dangerous....

to help this sector please do your gardening today as it will help keep property prices up in the long run and this will keep the country looking attractive to foreign investment....

especially from space as google starts reimagining the world...

now this is not gardening advise ...

[Breezy]

Dont buy any stocks today... its too riske...

this is not financial advise... stay home... dont move... dont even think,,,,, its too dangerous....

to help this sector please do your gardening today as it will help keep property prices up in the long run and this will keep the country looking attractive to foreign investment....

especially from space as google starts reimagining the world...

now this is not gardening advise ...

Your gardening advice sounds fine.