OCA - Oceania Healthcare

[TraderRay]

Back in the 50's no doubt at the opening bell. SR and VNZ will be ecstatic me too I've got a TD maturing the 12th and no way rolling it over for a 3% return. Small request boys, hold of buying till next week let the sp drift to 55c, I'll pick up a cool 100k at that price and join the uprampers brigade 

[Left Field]

Back in the 50's no doubt at the opening bell. SR and VNZ will be ecstatic me too I've got a TD maturing the 12th and no way rolling it over for a 3% return. Small request boys, hold of buying till next week let the sp drift to 55c, I'll pick up a cool 100k at that price and join the uprampers brigade 

TraderRay I wish you well with OCA, however your strategy (and post) sounds very much like that of a certain Sailor who just got him/herself banned from the other forum?

Take care.

[TGB]

TraderRay sounds fishy alright...

Tom Marvolo Riddle

[Basil]

Warriors showing true grit and going well but OCA...oh dear.

[Popeye]

I wonder if these businesses have the right business model.  In general they require a buoyant property market to both outpace development costs and maintain demand at a high or increasing price point.  They rely on resident loans to fund the business, however this borrowing capacity will necessarily fluctuate, and not necessarily in line with development costs.  They are a developer, but one that can never exit their development.  And you can never by completely sure that they have actually made any money, there is constant debate on how to even measure success or otherwise!

They are sort of an artificial financial arrangement to use residents to fund the operation, hoping that the stars align across the metrics that squeeze more cash from the temporary "customers".  The well run ones are a great ecosystem, but are they great businesses?  Under what circumstances would they become great business for investors, throwing off cash for distribution?

Maybe they should have gone down the rent-to-build path, at least that has a transparent business model that everybody understands.  Finance it, build it, rent it, maintain it.  KPL seem to be demonstrating that you can earn a rental premium based on the strength of your offer, location etc.  I reckon plenty of oldies would be happy to pay a premium rent in exchange for lifetime occupancy contract and keeping their house sale proceeds..

Just spitballing after very many very astute comments on this thread.

(not a holder)

[Basil]

RAD's excellent performance with healthcare profitability is making OCA's management look like total Muppets.  Just as well the current year is going to be different...(sarcasm).

[Left Field]

Auckland members of NZSA visited OCA premises at Meadowbank recently. The following update was provided.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/453789/attachment/446089/453789-446089.pdf

OCA not part of my portfolio but interesting to see OCA addressing investors concerns.

[Basil]

Interesting feedback from Ronaldson on the other channel that the 40 unit dementia facility in Meadowbank completed in May didn't yet have a single resident.
OCA trying to break new ground here with units available under ORA from $650K with 30% DMF.  Care fees are on top of that.  It will be interesting to see how many people are prepared to put their loved ones into care and with a substantial capital outlay, 30% DMF and care fees as well.

My Dad was in a RYM facility for a while.  No capital outlay, weekly fees mostly covered by Government funding and we paid a modest daily rate on top, (from vague memory about $40 a day) for a so called premium room.  Given residents of these secure facilities are basically "out of it", my view is there is going to be an extremely small market for people prepared to pay all the extra costs under an ORA for their loved one.

OCA think they can create a new market here with dementia units.  My thoughts.  How's that worked out for them so far with their care suites...
I think the fact that there's no residents yet despite this facility opening in May, speaks for itself.

[Basil]

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/454142/attachment/446451/454142-446451.pdf

Liz Coutts thinks OCA is a success. "

I want to begin by thanking everyone who plays a part in Oceania's success-our nearly 2,700 staff, our business partners, and you, our shareholders"

.

"Suzanne and her team have developed a five-year plan that builds on our strengths and focuses on
what matters most - improving resident outcomes, developing our workforce, and operating sustainably
over the long term. The Board fully supports this new strategy".

Its clear where their focus is.
Then there's this from the new CEO.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/454142/attachment/446452/454142-446452.pdf

They've sold 18 of the 25 properties they listed with.  In other words, private equity sold the market "a pup"

Not a single mention by anyone that eps has been declining over the years and we are not doing well enough for our shareholders.  No apology, no contrition, no remorse...just "we're doing a great job and we're growing stronger together".....so management say while they are patting themselves on the back with massive pay increases while shareholders get nothing.  How are shareholders growing stronger with the share price well under the IPO price when it listed 8 years ago and dividends cut to zero ? 

Just as well its all going to be so much better for shareholders going forward 

[Basil]

Some great recent posts on the other channel. Poet and Joshuatree telling it like it really is.

[Greekwatchdog]

Some great recent posts on the other channel. Poet and Joshuatree telling it like it really is.

Rich coming from you of all people. How many threads have you pumped up??

[Basil]

I've warned about this dog for years.

[Greekwatchdog]

I've warned about this dog for years.

And just like you used to ramp this stock up and thats after other posters were warning you and other investors.

OH the irony

[Popeye]

I occasionally see Basil (Beagle) bitterly accused of pumping, ramping etc.  Apparently because he flipped sides on a stock he was previously positive about.

My observation is that he develops an initial thesis on a stock, takes a position then forcefully argues it, normally extremely well.  And in the process his enthusiasm, consistency of position and strong logic carries a lot of other investors along for the ride (he probably talks himself into it too?).  Then something happens to change his mind, a little doubt or concern creeps in, a straw breaks the camels back, and he flips his view and 'switches teams'. 

So I would say Basil is probably a victim of his own success (in that he is so convincing and has called more right than not), and so sticks out a bit more than the average bear when he does change his mind!  At worst he could be accused of being a fair weather friend of his investments, in that they have to earn then work to keep his loyalty, an approach that seems to have worked pretty well for him.

This MB is all the richer for posters like Basil, keep it coming I say.  And to those that disagree - DYOR!

[Greekwatchdog]

I occasionally see Basil (Beagle) bitterly accused of pumping, ramping etc.  Apparently because he flipped sides on a stock he was previously positive about.

My observation is that he develops an initial thesis on a stock, takes a position then forcefully argues it, normally extremely well.  And in the process his enthusiasm, consistency of position and strong logic carries a lot of other investors along for the ride (he probably talks himself into it too?).  Then something happens to change his mind, a little doubt or concern creeps in, a straw breaks the camels back, and he flips his view and 'switches teams'.

So I would say Basil is probably a victim of his own success (in that he is so convincing and has called more right than not), and so sticks out a bit more than the average bear when he does change his mind!  At worst he could be accused of being a fair weather friend of his investments, in that they have to earn then work to keep his loyalty, an approach that seems to have worked pretty well for him.

This MB is all the richer for posters like Basil, keep it coming I say.  And to those that disagree - DYOR!

Argh ha, as this is the OCA thread I will keep it to OCA. Everyone is entitles to there views and philosophy on investments.

Sadly for Beagle/Basil as he continues to stick it up those who don't agree with him.

Funny he hates For Bar analysis except whern it agrees with his. You followers are welcome to it, hope he doesn't lead you off the cliff.