Which is the most undervalued stock/best buy on the NZX ?

[Basil]

now in your opinion

It might be helpful if you stated your investment timeframe i.e. whether you're looking for a quick buck or gains over the long haul and also whether you're prepared to consider speculative shares which currently have no earnings or you want something with a proven track record.  Just suggesting this so you can get the most value from the responses.

[Playa]

Not something highly speculative Basil. But something that has been oversold for whatever reason, or has a growth strategy in place that will increase the share price greatly in the future

[Habitz]

If the rules are one stock-pick only then mine would be PEB.
Simple reason being that if undervaluation is code for potential gain then PEB has the potential to increase five fold in the next 12-18 months. The reasons for that is best explored on the PEB thread itself, but broadly the black swan event (loss of Medicare coverage) that led to the share collapsing from $1.50 to the current 20c, is MOST PROBABLY going to be reversed (deliberation to commence on 20/2)
There is a risk/reward calculation to be done, but on balance I don't see any other stock on the exchange with the potential for a fundamental re-rating than PEB.

Have got 5 percent invested in PEB, I'd like to magnify that percentage but not knowing the future (if only) I couldn't live with myself if it goes bad.

[winner (n)]

BlackPearl BPG without a doubt

[HAWKDOG]

ERD is my pick.   Dramatic sell off possibly overdone

Analyst targets range from 1.60 to 2.08

New road user charges modifications could add tail winds.

[Playa]

HLG, see my comments in the HLG thread. Additionally, $A1 = $US70 cents and $NZ$1 = $US60 cents is very helpful. Hold long term, them and TRA are two of the very best managed companies on the NZX. HLG in particular is trading on truly compelling metrics for their 10 year EPS CAGR of 7.3%.
Disc HLG is my biggest investment position, approx 20% of my portfolio.

HLG, see my comments in the HLG thread. Additionally, $A1 = $US70 cents and $NZ$1 = $US60 cents is very helpful. Hold long term, them and TRA are two of the very best managed companies on the NZX. HLG in particular is trading on truly compelling metrics for their 10 year EPS CAGR of 7.3%.
Disc HLG is my biggest investment position, approx 20% of my portfolio.

[Playa]

HLG used to be quite a volatile stock. What is the main thing that has changed? The move into Australia?

[Basil]

Yes If you go back to 2016, HLG was a no growth stock doing about $40m sales in Australia and about $180m sales here.

James Glasson took over running Glassons Au and sales will be cica $300m this year and about 60% of group sales. He has done and is doing an outstanding job.

Despite the remarkable growth Glassons Au store penetration is only approx one fifth the level of Glassons N.Z taking into account the population base there. There's scope for more than 20 years of steady store expansion in Australia.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It's a toughie to pick - but purely from potential returns and risk reward ratio, probably MHJ, but it was close between it and WHS.

Beaten down retailers with fixed costs that struggle to be profitable when retail environment is in the crapper, but with even a small uplift in revenue and/or margin their operational leverage kicks in and the extra revenue/margin flows straight through to the bottom line. Also low debt, in no danger of collapsing, but being priced like they are.

Hence why I think they are the "most undervalued" on the NZX given the price does not in my opinion reflect the potential at all.

[Red Baron]

I managed to vround up my old nemesis, ze vone zhat I vill call Z-dog vor ze purpose of zhis post (mainly because I cannot pronounce ze virst letter of hees name very easily) by vorcing heem to land behind enemy lines - again (i.e. inside my vineyard)!   It is vunny how heestory repeats.   And yet, here ve both vere on Christmas eve, zharing a toast of Christmas champagne!

I have teased heem about heez zomewhat dogged approach to pursuing Zpark zhares before.    But I managed to pinch hees notes vrom our Christmas eve chat vhich I reproduce below:

"A somewhat negative view of near future prospects, might be to assume no recovery from the underlying telecommunications funk affecting telecoms in NZ over FY2027.   The last half year dividend was $236m, but only $177m of that figure was imputed.    IOW $59m of that last dividend was really a capital repayment.

With no telecoms revival on the immediate horizon, and if we assume a pumped up dividend via a capital repayment top up will not recur in FY2027, this might suggest a further reduced underlying half yearly dividend rate (excluding any capital repayments) of $177m or $177m/1,889m = 9.4cps (fully imputed).     Annualising that to a base rate of 18.8cps, and lining it up with the  last trading share price of Spark at $2.26,, gives a projected gross dividend yield of  (18.8c/0.72)/226c = 11.6%.     None too shabby when the banks are offering 3.5% for 12 months.  Plus of course I expect the 'subscription economy' of 'essential services' to eventually get better.   So that 11.6% should be the gross yield market cycle low point.    You would then have to agree that with the Spark balance sheet now resorted, an 11.6% projected gross yield at this point of the business cycle sounds like the bargain of the century."

I vound myself cautiously in  agreement vith ze old mutt.   And I don't theenk it vas ze effect of ze champagne!

RB

[Shareguy]

Gosh, Three M&A deals on the NZX in a week.

Who's next.......?

[Basil]

Hopefully not HLG or TRA, hope private equity leave them alone as they're without any doubt in my opinion, the two most undervalued growth stocks on the NZX.

[Crackity]

Gosh, Three M&A deals on the NZX in a week.

Who's next.......?

Gosh, Three M&A deals on the NZX in a week.

Who's next.......?

MCK

[Dolcile]

I've been in the wilderness.... what are the 3 M&A deals?

[Crackity]

I've been in the wilderness.... what are the 3 M&A deals?

THL GXH HGH