Which is the most undervalued stock/best buy on the NZX ?

[Playa]

now in your opinion

[Basil]

HLG, see my comments in the HLG thread. Additionally, $A1 = $US70 cents and $NZ$1 = $US60 cents is very helpful. Hold long term, them and TRA are two of the very best managed companies on the NZX. HLG in particular is trading on truly compelling metrics for their 10 year EPS CAGR of 7.3%.
Disc HLG is my biggest investment position, approx 20% of my portfolio.

[Auto Rower]

HLG, see my comments in the HLG thread. Additionally, $A1 = $US70 cents and $NZ$1 = $US60 cents is very helpful. Hold long term, them and TRA are two of the very best managed companies on the NZX
Disc HLG is my biggest investment position, approx 20% of my portfolio.

Hi Basil  I do  not see those two as any where near the most undervalued , great companies good management  .
But in my opinion not the most undervalued on the nzx.

[Dolcile]

Hi Basil  I do  not see those two as any where near the most undervalued , great companies good management  .
But in my opinion not the most undervalued on the nzx.

I'd say HLG is fairly cheap on a forward basis. 

Perhaps if you disagree, offer some suggestions on which are more undervalued?

[Auto Rower]

I'd say HLG is fairly cheap on a forward basis. 

Perhaps if you disagree, offer some suggestions on which are more undervalued?

Totally but are you saying itis the most undervalued on the nzx

[Basil]

Totally but are you saying itis the most undervalued on the nzx

He isn't, I am.
Here's why in a nutshell.  Its super low risk with no debt.
In 2018 they earned 46 cps.  If they make consensus 2028 forecast of 93.3 cps that's a decade long EPS CAGR of 7.33% and yet they trade on only 11.2 times next years earnings based on consensus forecast.  https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/

Its nuts that the oldest listed company on the NZX with a proven growth rate of that rate is trading on 11.2 times next years earnings.  Gross forecast yield based on Forsyth Barr's dividend forecast this year is 8.1% so investors are being paid very handsomely to enjoy the growth over the decades ahead.   Massive amount of room for further growth in Australia with their current very low store penetration rate.

If you're looking for quick bucks, look elsewhere.  If your looking for arguably the best value GARP stock in Australasia and one of the lowest risk holds for compounding growth trading at compelling value and are prepared to hold long term, HLG is the perfect stock to own in my opinion..

If you disagree, please add some value to this thread by naming what you think is better with a summary of the reasons why.

[Auto Rower]

 Absolutely G A R P great buy and hold .
 I suppose the most undervalued has many connotations ,some great companies undervalued for good reason.
 I do not think disagreeing that tra and hlg are the most undervalued is not adding interest to the thread as I see undervalued stocks as trading for a lot less than they are worth ,and depending on your reasoning I do not see these as trading for a lot less than they are worth in a contrarian viewpoint

[Basil]

My reasoning in a nutshell is its the most compelling value pathway to ongoing growth and their track record of success means they deserve to trade on higher metrics.  TRA has seen their track record of success acknowledged by the market.  Nobody wanted to know them less than 3 years ago when I was backing the truck up at $3.50.  Now its over $8.50.  HLG's track record has not been recognized in the same way by the market but I think it deserves to be.

I acknowledge a lot of retail investors will find the HLG ~ $10 share price off-putting and think a company like OCA or RYM is more compelling based on their discount to NTA.  In my book, discounts to NTA are completely irrelevant and what really matters is earnings per share and the growth rate.
Just my opinion, others are sure to have different opinions on what constitutes "most undervalued and best buy on the NZX".

[Auto Rower]

My reasoning in a nutshell is its the most compelling value pathway to ongoing growth and their track record of success means they deserve to trade on higher metrics.  TRA has seen their track record of success acknowledged by the market.  Nobody wanted to know them less than 3 years ago when I was backing the truck up at $3.50.  Now its over $8.50.  HLG's track record has not been recognized in the same way by the market but I think it deserves to be.

I acknowledge a lot of retail investors will find the HLG ~ $10 share price off-putting and think a company like OCA or RYM is more compelling based on their discount to NTA.  In my book, discounts to NTA are completely irrelevant and what really matters is earnings per share and the growth rate.
Just my opinion, others are sure to have different opinions on what constitutes "most undervalued and best buy on the NZX".

I see these as great companies and great buys at your entry point, and probably the best buy contenders for continued divisand such.
But as undervalued on  contrarians viewpoint and this is not me pushing or advising etc as undervalued with a good future growth after some bad management decisions etc in the past 
I see N Z k as greatly undervalued obviously this is not based on the eps or pe divvi etc  .
But as a company that is turning things around with blue endeavour

[Left Field]

What is the most undervalued stock/best buy now in your opinion??

I hesitate to post in response to such questions as certain posters here  have very fixed views and generally outpost any alternative view.

Suffice it to say that the 2026 stock picking competition is often a good guide.... (note; choices based on SP appreciation only)

Read into that what you want..........but the top picks for 2026 as at Jan 2nd are:
HGH > PEB > SKC > IFT > RYM

followed by:
SPK > OCA > EBO > HLG > SEK

Lastly it is likely the  February FY 26 results and updates will change viewpoints, so perhaps best to wait on these before making any major decisions or recommendations.

[Auto Rower]

Every one has fixed viewpoints ,and it is a very loaded question that needs refining somewhat.
But you do not need to be hesitant, its good to be open about this more opinions the merrier imho .
 The main thing in a discussion is its not personnel its inquiring minds, opinions learning

[LoungeLizard]

My picks would be IFT, PEB, SPK and GNE.

Agree that personal methodology plays a big part in assessing value - it's not a purely objective exercise. Risk plays a big part in how I assess value - some stocks are inherently riskier than others due to the industry they are in, and that needs to built in to their "valuation." Eg. TWR and Retail.

[Basil]

With all due respect I think the thread question is quite clear. You're supposed to pick a single stock on the NZX.

The most value you can provide to others is to pick one stock and explain why it's your top pick.

[lorraina]

 Q&A
Is the business simple to understand.............................................Yes.
Is it a consumer staple.........................................................Well NZders may think it is.
Does it have positive cash flow from operations...................................Yes.
Do current assets far exceed current liabilities..................................Yes by 3.23 times.
What is the company's total borrowings................................Extremely low at 4.31% of current assets.
Is the business's equity ratio over 50%..........................................Yes.61.58%
Is the business profitable..........................................................Yes
Is the business scalable. without calling on shareholders for more capital..............Yes
Does the business pay fully imputed dividends.......................................Yes.
 Is the major shareholder's interests the same as other shareholders..................Yes he is the CEO.
Is the Chairman business savy........................................................Yes.
Is the company's PE ratio lower than others in the sector.............................Yes.
Do I hold shares in the company.......................................................Yes.
Is the company's divie the highest in its sector.....................................Yes
Does the company give shareholders reqular updates....................................Yes
Is the company at the top of NZX's list of companies..................................Yes
Well if you have managed to read all the above fascinating facts you would have guess I am talking about 2CC...lol

[LoungeLizard]

If the rules are one stock-pick only then mine would be PEB.
Simple reason being that if undervaluation is code for potential gain then PEB has the potential to increase five fold in the next 12-18 months. The reasons for that is best explored on the PEB thread itself, but broadly the black swan event (loss of Medicare coverage) that led to the share collapsing from $1.50 to the current 20c, is MOST PROBABLY going to be reversed (deliberation to commence on 20/2)
There is a risk/reward calculation to be done, but on balance I don't see any other stock on the exchange with the potential for a fundamental re-rating than PEB.