Geopolitical Risk

[BlackPeter]

really!!! amazing...

and what about these BP ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eitUCcDgr0c

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panther_KF51#:~:text=The%20Panther%20KF51%20is%20a,%22%2C%20i.e.%2C%20tracked%20vehicle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXG_WpicClI

... not my area of expertise ; 

Used to serve in and later on develop stuff for the air defence. Panther not air defence - it is some sort of replacement for the Leopard 2. Not really defence (and certainly not air defence), but attack.

I am sure the older Leopard 2's would do just fine for Ukraine (certainly compared to the gear Russia recovered from the scrap yards), but for some reason Nato seems to be very reluctant to give Ukraine anything they can use for offence, even if they want to use it only to attack the attackers.

[Waltzing]

Some say China is objecting to gear being sent to ukraine

but who knows...

[Waltzing]

Its looking bleak... does russia care how many of its soldiers die... maybe not ... can the west keep up this war?

a bleak accessment ...

is Iran the real problem here and North K..

the new axis of evil.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-running-out-ammo-how-much-longer-can-keep-fighting-1762346

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-solution-bakhmut-meat-grinder-1768195

[Waltzing]

BP these a big...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-send-seven-additional-gepard-tanks-ukraine-spiegel-2022-12-02/

apparently large orders being handed out by ugly bear for missile to the defence industry... will sanction work ... where does North K get its missile guidence technology from... lots of questions...

if this thing goes for on for years it will effect markets...

whos selling western technology and where.

is crypto at the heart of the evil defence trade for these evil countries.

[Waltzing]

Well BP - if this is right then the germans and the french are in for a shock and those tank systems and fighters cant be handed over fast enough....

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia%E2%80%99s-capability-not-its-intent

and market impact is not built in yet..

of course having the intent and actually doing it is another thing..

[BlackPeter]

Well BP - if this is right then the germans and the french are in for a shock and those tank systems and fighters cant be handed over fast enough....

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia%E2%80%99s-capability-not-its-intent

and market impact is not built in yet..

of course having the intent and actually doing it is another thing..

Hard enough to fathom the intent of somebody you know and can trust ...

Putin on the other hand is for Russia, what Hitler was four generations ago for Germany: A populist leader who promises his subjugated subjects that they will conquer the world.

Good thing is - Putin is dumber and more corrupt than Hitler was and the Russians are less enthusiastic to fight.

But still - I think that this nightmare will only end when Russia is either militarily defeated or when they manage to change the system. Only choice the West has is to pick whether they want a long and painful experience (a la World War 2) or whether they want to short cut the slaughter by properly supporting Ukraine.

[Waltzing]

BP "cut the slaughter by properly supporting Ukraine."

yes that the heart of the matter....

Book "Heart of Darkness"

and there lurks a new darkness... 500 thousand troop announced but where is ugle bear going to get the equipment from...

and are the hord going to follow orders? It isnt a german army that followers orders and they know they arnt threatened...

this war isnt following the pattern of the old ones and that means no ones knows how it will end becuase it isnt like any other one..

My Cousin who served in the balkans for NZ... says thay are all different..

be interesting to see how the new air defense systems work...

BUY DEFENSE stocks cause this looks like it going to go for a while unless the ugly bear freezes in the dug outs...

and BP thats just going to go down in history along with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_invasion_of_Russia

is this what we are going to see shortly?

[BlackPeter]

and BP thats just going to go down in history along with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_invasion_of_Russia

is this what we are going to see shortly?

Are you referring to the forecasted second full scale attack Russia's against Ukraine? Maybe, but as you indicated - Russia has not even enough gear to supply their existing troops. Apparently soldiers need to bring their own gear - the evil stepmother Russia provides only the weapons, and even those are old and bad maintained. How are they going to equip new troops?

If you are talking about the final solution to Russia - I would think that the Russian federation starts crumbling. If Russia can't even discipline their little neighbor Ukraine, whey should the rest of the Russian federation bow to the cruel but inept czar in Moscow?

[Waltzing]

A look back at WW2 and resource management and industrial production.

Is the west now at War in a new era of war that will go on for how long? Well it sure looks like a world at the begining of new era of war..

Arming the Uke's is only just beginning as most of the budget that has been passed for the Pentagon to buy weapons that havnt even been built yet...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZnfmaGC3Lg

The interesting conclusion was that while the UK created a social solution for housing after WW2 it failed to develop a vibrant market economy to support it.

Atlee is hailed as a great social reformer but by the 1970's the UK had nearly failed as a market leader in every sector of its industrial base...

Lessons here for NZ?

[Hectorplains]

Maybe - but your argument is predicated on some serious cherry picking. The UK economy was a basket case post WW2 - crippled by chronic shortages in food, housing and resources. Atlee's social and economic reforms may not have resulted in the UK becoming, "a market leader in every sector of its industrial base" but when you're coming off a base of reliance on foreign aide, would you expect that in 20 short years?  Especially given that Atlee lost power in '51 - so had no handle on the rudder for 19 of them.

[Waltzing]

Not my argument, my statements did not say it was.... it was an argument deep into the video ....
 
Interesting that this country also has a government not dissimilar to UK after the war.
 Much more air defence needed for these poor people being murdered by Ugly beer evil.

2 deacdes can be a long time in a market economy.
 
 https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-missile-defense-weapons-charts-russia/32192132.html

[Hectorplains]

Not my argument, my statements did not say it was.... it was an argument deep into the video ....
 
Interesting that this country also has a government not dissimilar to UK after the war.
 Much more air defence needed for these poor people being murdered by Ugly beer evil.

2 deacdes can be a long time in a market economy.
 
 https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-missile-defense-weapons-charts-russia/32192132.html

Apart from the party moniker of "Labour" these two Governments  - Britain post WW2 and modern NZ have little in common.  I'm not seeing Ardern throwing open the doors to immigrants or nationalizing core assets.  The issues faced by both Governments do have some commonality, on a rudimentary level.  Much as any economy coming out of war or a pandemic will.  It's time the Nats put some real policy planks around growth on the table.  So far, they have presented little more than a few easy re-heats.  It's not clear what their vision actually is; although that may not be a problem at the polls, given how unpopular this government is becoming.   

[Waltzing]

some light reading ... but one does hope that something good happens next year becuase 2022 was a shocker...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-faces-humiliating-reality-and-political-ruin/WPRLW7EM7RBKTNXWR4ZKIXSLE4/

something good and well done to these two for showing they are people after all and not just pollies...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130848645/damien-grant-even-contrarians-deserve-a-happy-christmas

[Hectorplains]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/26/ukraine-war-revenge-of-history-how-geopolitics-shaping-conflict

Interesting piece from the Grauniad.

[Waltzing]

Uk defence minister

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuHbcM9Gg40