Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

Big meeting coming up today and Germans communciation has been a series of domestic related steps for voters.

Lets hope something gets sorted out this weekend...

https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-1-19-23/index.html

[Waltzing]

Is Urkaine war about to go big or will it be like the JAPO-RUSO war...

Germany seems to be in chaos and POLAND warns it will go it alone... The Sweds have one of the best IFV's and say it will supply ukraine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/19/germany-must-stop-stalling-ukraine-tanks-deal-say-nato-allies/

[Waltzing]

Swdish to send the most modern IFV? the CV90...

Its truely a modern and highly effective system according to the experts..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRwdxHXnUA0

Probably older models but they are still highly regarded apparently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUyZIqH2XQE

50 CV 90 being sent... Its a big number along with the ARCHER self propelled 155..

  Brigade size highly mobile armour... its a big shipment from the Sweds and has made the daily Telepgraph podcast...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/02/russia-ukraine-war-listen-daily-podcast/

Its a sizable war developing right on  europes borders.

[Waltzing]

CNN report - General Clarke says western aid needs to step up to providing not 5o of a vechile type is more like 100's..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7wKIeu9pC4

This war is just starting according to Clarke.

[Waltzing]

They are calling for a WAR TIME LEADER...

from Stuff ...

"Now the country, this is the reality, it needs a war-time leader and Labour does not have one waiting in the wings."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/political-roundup-jacinda-ardern-resigns-as-prime-minister-why-this-changes-everything-bryce-edwards/UVTFAGFPFVBOLJ4GY34GWECQ7I/

[Waltzing]

NZ have a new PM but even if they take away all those policies that no one was expecting they are still the same Tiger and they dont suddenly reverse the strips to different direction and colors....

Those policies will come back .....

They will just HIDE them maybe for a while but really will the TRIBES put up with that?

And will the pressure build for a March election as they have a figthing chance right now...

better a fighting chance then going out to fight in a snow storm that might be coming...

[Waltzing]

The Real cost of this war is the children effected by the death of parents and family...

we are all paying a financialc cost but that is not such a huge one compared to these young people and the famiy members they have lost.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-teen-dancers-america-s-got-talent/32233757.html

[Waltzing]

Germany stuck in a guilt and denial trip...

US gives them a kick up the you know what  ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/22/us-reads-riot-act-germany-refusal-send-leopard-tanks-ukraine/

[Waltzing]

The risks to the NZX market may be down a bit as its not really debatable that the Current GOVT has done nothing much for the private sector,,,

But now it appears that the POPP (the party of plenty of Policies) is now the PO NOPE ( Party of NO POLICIES)

not sure what the party is excited about as their new leader has just said we have NO BANANAS today...

Which could  rally the stock market on the basis that a labour party with NO POLICIES is more market friendly.....

[Waltzing]

Understanding the New Leader...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9_YJS7rFDM

And history repeats itself...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIedNhGqWF0

[Capt_Hook]

stuck in a guilt and denial trip...

[Waltzing]

Could it be that the current WOKE generation has no sense of HUMOUR...

this is a classic ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIedNhGqWF0

Reruns on JONES please....

along with YES MINISTER...

[Waltzing]

And the Germans start to collapse into the inevitable saying poland can go ahead or wont be stopped from sending in the big toys...

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-air-strikes-extended-military-threat/32234293.html

[BlackPeter]

Germany stuck in a guilt and denial trip...

US gives them a kick up the you know what  ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/22/us-reads-riot-act-germany-refusal-send-leopard-tanks-ukraine/

Actually - with all due respect, but this is all overblown kindergarten behaviour of a bunch of cowards and hesitants looking for an excuse. Heard yesterday an interview with the German Foreign Minster (Annalena Baerbock) and she said that Germany would not stand (and never stood) in the way of allies wanting to send Leopards into the Ukraine ... however, nobody yet has asked.

So - Germany is clearly not standing in the way of Leopards being sent to the Ukraine ... it just was such a convenient excuse for the others. Blame the Germans that they don't allow it, but better not ask them because them might say yes.

I recon the Western allies need to look for a different excuse not to send the Leopards. The old don't ask the Germans but blame them for not allowing the export strategy does not work anymore.

[Waltzing]

YES BP  - a lot of different messages coming from everyone.

But the Polish have now stated they will send ... or as you have said... have they...

it a very confusing state of affairs...

it does need someone to send a whole lot of tanks and soon... or will the russians get lost ...like last time they advanced to far...

its bewildering...

bear and tanks....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/20/ukraine-invasion-germany-tanks-leopards-russia-war-europe-weapons/