Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

Now this is how you defend the nation... dads army has nothing on this ... no panic here... now this is very watchable for everything... who does not like a fighting tiger!!!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6V1ah7jUFM

[Davexl]

Swedish Officials Warn of Hybrid Warfare Threats from Russia, China

https://news.usni.org/2025/01/17/swedish-officials-warn-of-hybrid-warfare-threats-from-russia-china?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=26cbd26e88&mc_e id=cc0f71bf89

[Davexl]

The Quad should help Indonesia achieve underwater domain awareness

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-quad-should-help-indonesia-achieve-underwater-domain-awareness/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_f69adb695b60f7c8eaf201183f0805da&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=The%20Quad%20should%20help%20Indonesia%20achieve%20underwater%20domain%20awareness

[Davexl]

Limited quarantine is China's likely first move in subduing Taiwan

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/limited-quarantine-is-chinas-likely-first-move-in-subduing-taiwan/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_f69adb695b60f7c8eaf201183f0805da&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Limited%20quarantine%20is%20Chinas%20likely%20first%20move%20in%20subduing%20Taiwan

[Davexl]

Australia & New Zealand as Chinese vassal states ?

Michael Pezzullo - Gradually, then suddenly: in geopolitics, decades can happen in weeks

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/gradually-then-suddenly-in-geopolitics-decades-can-happen-in-weeks/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_f69adb695b60f7c8eaf201183f0805da&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Gradually%20then%20suddenly%20in%20geopolitics%20decades%20can%20happen%20in%20weeks

Excerpt:

As Henry Kissinger often said, in the face of a wide range of uncertainties and imponderables, often action has to be taken when the opportunities and threats are only incompletely glimpsed, and when the probabilities and consequences cannot be calculated precisely. If we wait for time to play out, we are likely to be surprised when things happen suddenly.

As Australia grapples with this bewildering range of contingencies, it will need to focus its efforts on that which matters most. For Australia, the gradual and then sudden establishment of Chinese hegemony and a US strategic withdrawal from our region (whether by choice or through military defeat) would be the most adverse geopolitical occurrence in our history.

Everything else listed above matters. This would matter most. A hegemonic China, technologically dominant and militarily unchecked, with the US looking on from its hemispheric citadel, would be for Australia a more demanding overlord than Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan or Soviet Russia would have been had any one of them managed to achieve mastery in Eurasia. A dominant China would expect to get its way, and resisting would incur high costs.

[Davexl]

Kim Beazley - The (Mining) winners we must pick eg Rare Earths, vanadium, gallium, germanium and antimony

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-winners-we-must-pick/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_f69adb695b60f7c8eaf201183f0805da&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=The%20winners%20we%20must%20pick

Excerpt:

But putting the whole picture together requires a continual strategic commitment. Examining the recent Chinese bans, we can see that we can encourage a broad global effort. Given incoming president Donald Trump's intentions, he will need to take a deep interest in what we are doing. It is worth a major effort to indicate to him that we have the capacity to relieve what might be a substantial point of blackmail that cripples his strategic position. The Chinese have already demonstrated a willingness to move in this general area and have indicated a preparedness to take those bans further into the goods now covered by Iluka's production.

[BlackPeter]

Australia & New Zealand as Chinese vassal states ?

Not sure I would be that pessimistic. I suppose China might be for some time somewhat occupied with subduing some countries lying closer to them like Japan, Taiwan, South-Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, India. If I add them all together, this is probably twice of Chinas population and as well exceeding their GDP. Add to that that China will need more and more of their resources to look after their elderlies rather than subduing others, we should be ok if we tread carefully.

But yes, it will be a challenge to keep the power hungry autocrats of this globe at bay. Not sure yet, whether Trump or Xi will be the bigger danger for us - some even say that Xi looks like the adult in the room. Others might say this is easy given the mental state of the other guy.

[Davexl]

Not sure I would be that pessimistic. I suppose China might be for some time somewhat occupied with subduing some countries lying closer to them like Japan, Taiwan, South-Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, India. If I add them all together, this is probably twice of Chinas population and as well exceeding their GDP. Add to that that China will need more and more of their resources to look after their elderlies rather than subduing others, we should be ok if we tread carefully.

But yes, it will be a challenge to keep the power hungry autocrats of this globe at bay. Not sure yet, whether Trump or Xi will be the bigger danger for us - some even say that Xi looks like the adult in the room. Others might say this is easy given the mental state of the other guy.

Yes BP, I am increasingly realising the difficult predicament Australia finds itself in by rapidly arming itself and aligning itself to the US more strongly than we are just now - your cautiously "hedging our bets" in NZ as it were, by not being as aggressive as Australia, who has all the resources that China would like if it were to dominate the Western Pacific hemisphere, following US disengagement.
Hopefully Trump will be gone in 4 years...

However as the minchkin of the defence world, NZ could perhaps aggressively arm itself to do its bit, maintaining its more even handed diplomacy with China - while quietly uncoupling and diversifing its trade relationships...?

[Davexl]

Justin Bassi - The West's crisis of confidence

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-wests-crisis-of-confidence/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_f69adb695b60f7c8eaf201183f0805da&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=The%20Wests%20crisis%20of%20confidence

[BlackPeter]

Yes BP, I am increasingly realising the difficult predicament Australia finds itself in by rapidly arming itself and aligning itself to the US more strongly than we are just now - your cautiously "hedging our bets" in NZ as it were, by not being as aggressive as Australia, who has all the resources that China would like if it were to dominate the Western Pacific hemisphere, following US disengagement.
Hopefully Trump will be gone in 4 years...

However as the minchkin of the defence world, NZ could perhaps aggressively arm itself to do its bit, maintaining its more even handed diplomacy with China - while quietly uncoupling and diversifing its trade relationships...?

No argument on that. Our current military expenses are a pittance, and clearly - the results do show. Our navy used to have (I think) 6 larger ships, and just sunk one before Samoa. Out air force isn't anymore and even our PM transporter tends to break every second time it is in use. Ah yes, and our army fits into four not even particularly large military camps. No doubt we will pay a high price for our pitiful defense spending if we ever need to defend ourselves.

So - yes, Singapore (similar sized population) invests every year 3% of its GDP into their army ... and they manage to keep this way some quite unruly neighbors at bay. We have the same population size, probably several thousand times the territory to defend and we spend only 1% of (an anyway much smaller) GDP. Drop in the ocean.

[Davexl]

I won't be making a habit of this...no subscr. reqd today...

Live Updates: Trump Pardons Jan. 6 Rioters and Signs Executive Orders

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/20/us/trump-executive-orders

[Davexl]

From BB if not already read...

Donald Trump on Monday echoed his first inauguration speech eight years ago, painting a dark picture of an America where, in 2025, many still struggle to make ends meet though employment is high and the Federal Reserve well on its way to achieving a soft landing. Trump said he would reverse America's "horrible betrayal" and instead usher in a "golden age" while taking on "a radical and corrupt establishment." He pledged to tackle residual inflation by declaring a "national energy emergency" to encourage more domestic fossil fuel production, with policy changes that would enable new oil and gas development on federal lands and roll back Biden-era climate regulations.

Still, much of Trump's agenda hinges on Congress, where Republicans have narrow majorities in both chambers and where splits are already emerging over plans that could expand the country's monstrous national debt. Trump will also weigh the extent to which he wants to orient his administration around personal grievances, including his frequent falsehoods about his 2020 electoral defeat and efforts to prosecute him after leaving office. Earlier Monday, now-former President Joe Biden announced pardons for family members and some government officials that Trump had threatened to go after.

At 78, Trump is the oldest president to be sworn into office, as well as the first Commander-in-Chief to be a convicted felon and the subject of two separate impeachments by the House of Representatives for high crimes and misdemeanors. Nevertheless, he returns to office more emboldened than ever, and with fewer likely checks given full Republican control of the US government.  —David E. Rovella

What You Need to Know Today

Trump has delayed his promised renewal of the trade war he launched against China seven years ago. Instead, he is ordering his administration to address unfair trade practices globally and investigate whether Beijing had complied with a deal signed during his first term. Trump's first administration negotiated a "phase one" trade deal with Beijing that ended years of tit-for-tat tariffs, but few of China's promised purchases of US goods materialized. Trump's moves today call for key federal agencies to address alleged currency manipulation by other countries. The decision not to immediately target Beijing as promised comes after a campaign season in which promised a 10% to 20% charge on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese products. He has also vowed a 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico.

Trump has promised executive orders on everything ranging from immigration, energy, the military and federal workforce, casting many as attempts to reverse the policies of his predecessor. He has said he could sign about 100 executive orders, and the White House on Monday pledged "an unprecedented slate" of actions rescinding Biden's orders. It's expected that many of them will be challenged in court. Here's a rundown of what might be coming.

Migrants near the Rio Grande along the US-Mexico border in Juarez, Chihuahua state, Mexico, on Dec. 18.  Photographer: Bloomberg

Wall Street reacted positively to Trump's initial tariff backpedaling, pushing US equity futures higher. Signs that he may pursue a less protectionist approach, for now, is a boon for multinational companies that rely on cross-border commerce, giving them time to adjust pricing and mitigate any impact to profit margins. The dollar however slumped. Betting on the greenback has become one of Wall Street's favored trades for those investors expecting that sweeping trade tariffs will crimp global growth, accelerate US inflation and potentially cause the Federal Reserve to refrain from interest-rate cuts this year. "I do think, and maybe it's just a hope, that Trump backs off from his most extreme rhetoric, especially on the deportation and tariff fronts," said Marvin Loh, senior macro strategist at State Street Global Markets.

Orsted A/S recorded a $1.7 billion hit on its earnings as the costs of offshore wind farms, particularly in the US, keep rising. The setback is the latest in a long series of issues for Denmark's Orsted, one of the world's biggest developers of wind farms at sea. It doesn't help that Trump vowed in the first hours of his second term that he will stop leasing areas for new projects. The Republican has promised to undercut sources of renewable energy from wind to electric vehicle batteries.

Many of Trump's announced executive orders are sure to be the subject of litigation. But even before that can begin, other lawsuits already have been filed. A union representing hundreds of thousands of federal employees sued the Trump administration over its as-yet detailed cost-cutting effort to be led by Trump adjutant Elon Musk. The lawsuit from the American Federation of Government Employees and government watchdog groups Public Citizen and State Democracy Defenders Fund was one of three cases filed as Trump was being sworn in on Monday challenging the "Department of Government Efficiency," or DOGE after Musk's favorite cryptocurrency. The AFGE case claims that the initiative violates a 1972 US law requiring checks on conflicts of interest, ideological balance and transparency for groups with a direct line to the White House.

Instead of waiting to see whether Trump follows through on his endorsement of a national "strategic" Bitcoin stockpile, some states are taking matters into their own hands. As local legislative sessions get underway, eight states have already introduced bills proposing crypto reserves. But while the push to ensure that state governments hold Bitcoin in one form or another has generated momentum among long-time crypto advocates, the clamor may not be more than just loud noise.

Some of the world's richest people turned out Monday to pay homage to Trump. It was a who's who of the world's wealthiest—gathering a combined net worth exceeding $1.3 trillion for the occasion. Seated prominently behind the Trump family for Monday's swearing-in were the top three individuals on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg. Also spotted inside the Capitol Rotunda for the inaugural ceremony were LVMH Chief Executive Officer and France's richest man, Bernard Arnault, and Alphabet co-founder Sergey Brin. Present in the crowd as well were hedge fund billionaire John Paulson and Apple CEO Tim Cook, who enjoyed a cordial relationship with Trump during his first term.

From left, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai and Elon Musk during Donald Trump's inauguration in the rotunda of the US Capitol. Photographer: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP Photo

[Davexl]

Hey people, I'm pausing my contributions indefinitely for now as per the other site.
Don't currently have the time to maintain both.

Hopefully you mostly have logins if you still wish to contribute to the subject...

Anyhow, here's the article that redoubled my efforts in this area as some of you will be familiar with already.

New Zealand's dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/

[Waltzing]

when we all go 3D virtual these wonderful text based forums will be like a coma 64..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_64

[Waltzing]

TRA is a special infrastructure company ... russia hasnt got one ... here is some special operations soldiers , highly trained doing special evac exfil on the front lines...