Geopolitical Risk

[Davexl]

China is buying less from developed countries, but not Australia | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/china-is-buying-less-from-developed-countries-but-not-australia/

Excerpt:
"However, China's share of Australia's goods exports has revived from a low of 29 percent two years ago during China's campaign of economic coercion to 36 percent now. Australia is thus more dependent on a single market than it has been since the late 1940s, when its biggest export customer was Britain."

Sound familiar ? Compare with the US decoupling above...

[Waltzing]

The Kanga's have the good stuff and the dragon's want it.

[Davexl]

US tech-defence leaders want to upend the establishment

featuring the machinations of 'our very own' Peter Thiel...

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/us-tech-defence-leaders-want-to-upend-the-establishment/

[Davexl]

From the Financial Times:

Exclusive: Trump wants 5% Nato defence spending target, Europe told

Donald Trump's team has told European officials that the incoming US president will demand Nato member states increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, but plans to continue supplying military aid to Ukraine.

(Makes even more a mockery of our 1.1 % of GDP, not that 5% is realistically achievable in the short term, unless we have WW-III!)

[Davexl]

China Expanding Pacific Operations, Taiwan Invasion 'Not Possible' by 2027, Say DoD Officials

https://news.usni.org/2024/12/19/china-expanding-pacific-operations-taiwan-invasion-not-possible-by-2027-say-dod-officials?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=7b68847196&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

[Davexl]

Marine-Moving Medium Landing Ship Critical To China Fight Put On Hold Again By Navy

https://www.twz.com/sea/marine-moving-medium-landing-ship-critical-to-china-fight-put-on-hold-again-by-navy

[BlackPeter]

China Expanding Pacific Operations, Taiwan Invasion 'Not Possible' by 2027, Say DoD Officials

https://news.usni.org/2024/12/19/china-expanding-pacific-operations-taiwan-invasion-not-possible-by-2027-say-dod-officials?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=7b68847196&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

Situation not too different from pre-WW 2. America isolationist, not caring about (at that stage) Hitler expanding his territory by attacking neighboring nations. What did wake up America at that time was Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour.

Today Russia is playing the role Germany played in WW2 (attacking the neighbors and occupying their territory) - and China might end up doing what Japan did in WW 2 (waking up an isolationist America).

Just wondering where Americas Pearl Harbor event will be this time? Will it be Chinas attack on Taiwan? Will it be the dear leader of North Korea (loved by Trump, Xi and Putin) attacking South Korea and flattening the US army bases there? Or is China going for Japan (with lots of US soldiers stationed) or even Guam (US naval base)? Perhaps its even Pearl Harbour (i.e. Hawaii) again? Who knows - so many options when the US are run by an illiterate who didn't learn the lessons of history.

Interesting times, no doubt. 

[Davexl]

"From the Financial Times:

Exclusive: Trump wants 5% Nato defence spending target, Europe told

Donald Trump's team has told European officials that the incoming US president will demand Nato member states increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, but plans to continue supplying military aid to Ukraine.

(Makes even more a mockery of our 1.1 % of GDP, not that 5% is realistically achievable in the short term, unless we have WW-III!)"

 Quote Originally Posted by jonu View Post
"NZ is also not in Europe and has no common borders. Kinda like a really wide moat really. There has to be some advantages from being so remote from the rest of the world"
-----------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunately, China's recent lobbing of a missile into the South-West Pacific (Kiribati)...
Just saying...(Wasn't possible 2 years ago to reach NZ).

From my earlier posting:  Judith Collins says Defence plan impacted by worsening global situation, China 'changed game' with missile launch

"...Earlier, when discussing the changing geopolitical strategic environment before a select committee, Collins referred to China in September firing an ICBM carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific.

"The intercontinental ballistic missile that China launched from its launch site in China to past Kiribati is about the same distance as it would be from that same launch site to New Zealand," she said.

Collins said she had raised the issue and been assured it was a "routine training exercise", but the last time that exercise had taken place was 44 years ago."

[Henry Filth]

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/one-fifth-of-armed-forces-not-fit-to-fight-admits-mod-8mxj03ltr

From The Times.    Are the Brits punching above their weight or just out of their league? Now who does that remind me of?

"More than 10,000 serving sailors, soldiers and aviators cannot go to war because they have been declared medically unfit, it can be revealed.

In addition, nearly 15,000 troops can only be deployed if the mission meets certain criteria, such as the weather is not too hot or too cold and they are not exposed to noise.

Overall, one fifth of the regular armed forces cannot be relied upon to fight, according to the figures disclosed by Al Carns, the veterans minister, after questions submitted by the Conservatives.

Nearly a quarter of soldiers and officers in the regular army cannot engage in combat without any restrictions and nearly 3,000 sailors are deemed unfit to go to sea under any circumstances.

In the case of the army, 16,335 soldiers are either "medically not deployable" or "medically limited deployable", out of a total of 71,340 personnel, amounting to 23 per cent of all troops."

[Davexl]

Where the rubber will truly hit the road - AUKUS Pillar II and the upcoming Defence Capability Plan.

Wayne Mapp: Testing Times ahead under Trump 2.0

https://defsec.net.nz/2024/12/24/testing-times-trump-security-partner/

Excerpt:

"When the Labour/New Zealand First government purchased the P8 Poseidon's and the C130J Hercules, defence spending did increase to 1.5% of GDP for 2020 and 2021. The naval replacement programme will be substantially more expensive. New Zealand's defence partners are unlikely to be convinced by a programme that merely replaces platforms of a one for one basis.

Australia is particularly notable for the very substantial increase in the size of its Navy over the last decade. They, along with the United States, will expect New Zealand to take at least some steps toward increasing capability. I have previously mooted an increase in the naval combat force from two frigates to either three or four such ships. This will require an increase in defence spending to up to 2% of GPD, which is still less than that of Australia."

[Davexl]

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/one-fifth-of-armed-forces-not-fit-to-fight-admits-mod-8mxj03ltr

From The Times.    Are the Brits punching above their weight or just out of their league? Now who does that remind me of?

"More than 10,000 serving sailors, soldiers and aviators cannot go to war because they have been declared medically unfit, it can be revealed.

In addition, nearly 15,000 troops can only be deployed if the mission meets certain criteria, such as the weather is not too hot or too cold and they are not exposed to noise.

Overall, one fifth of the regular armed forces cannot be relied upon to fight, according to the figures disclosed by Al Carns, the veterans minister, after questions submitted by the Conservatives.

Nearly a quarter of soldiers and officers in the regular army cannot engage in combat without any restrictions and nearly 3,000 sailors are deemed unfit to go to sea under any circumstances.

In the case of the army, 16,335 soldiers are either "medically not deployable" or "medically limited deployable", out of a total of 71,340 personnel, amounting to 23 per cent of all troops."

Readiness levels are a major issue worldwide it seems. Whether it is Taiwan with their civilian militia backup, Germany with it Army training and equipment, US with its ship and submarine building  and repair capacity or Australia / NZ with the number of ships being too low and vessels tied up un-crewed at wharves...

[Davexl]

Have previously reported on the Tomahawks for Japan & Aust but a recap doesn't hurt.
Note that Peru selected Hyundai for Navy vessels - perhaps Aust & NZ General Purpose frigates will come from South Korea also ?

Numerous other acquisitions reported also...

Top Stories 2024: International (Defence) Acquisition

https://news.usni.org/2024/12/24/top-stories-2024-international-acquisition?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=d699da5b2f&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

[Davexl]

Jimmy Carter, 39th US President and Nobel Peace Prize winner, dies at 100, his son says

By Kevin Sullivan, Edward Walsh

Washington Post·
30 Dec, 2024 10:55 AM
8 mins to read https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360536254/former-us-president-jimmy-carter-diesaged-100

[Davexl]

Situation not too different from pre-WW 2. America isolationist, not caring about (at that stage) Hitler expanding his territory by attacking neighboring nations. What did wake up America at that time was Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour.

Today Russia is playing the role Germany played in WW2 (attacking the neighbors and occupying their territory) - and China might end up doing what Japan did in WW 2 (waking up an isolationist America).

Just wondering where Americas Pearl Harbor event will be this time? Will it be Chinas attack on Taiwan?

I note only that China has been upgrading a lot of their RORO ferries in recent times to allow beach landings on Taiwan, as well as of-course practicing their blockading skills (Is it a rehearsal or it is the real one...?)
Taiwan have also bought a swag of F-16Vs and are learning about drones if not building them yet. Let's hope they get delivered in time...

Will it be the dear leader of North Korea (loved by Trump, Xi and Putin) attacking South Korea and flattening the US army bases there?

Well they still have THAAD, despite what China thinks...

Or is China going for Japan (with lots of US soldiers stationed)

As well as upgrading their submarines for long endurance, Japan has also decided to convert more destroyers to AEGIS configuration rather than building the civilian-problematic land based AEGIS Ashore. AEGIS ships can handle an array of missile types these days including SM3s,6s and ship to ship types.

or even Guam (US naval base)?

The US is building a 360 degree view anti-ballistic missile defence shield to protect Guam and furiously updating Tinian further east as a backstop to Guam should the worst happen...

Perhaps its even Pearl Harbour (i.e. Hawaii) again?

I would note that Pearl Harbor is vulnerable right now as its fuel bunker tanks aren't replenished yet after leaking into fresh water sources.

Who knows - so many options when the US are run by an illiterate who didn't learn the lessons of history.

Trump the appeaser at any cost? (Nice not having wars around, but at what long-term cost ?)

Interesting times, no doubt.  Ain't that the truth !

[Waltzing]

" RORO ferries"  big they are big as you say...

drone boats .. the TW's need lots of ukraine drone boats that just shot down a helicopter with a Vissel...

else where ... its war as usual...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNBmK7a1y8

the war in the baltics has started .. cutting cables used to be enough for gun boat war stuff...

lucky for photonic chips ...