Geopolitical Risk

[Davexl]

Cracks are showing...

Putin's banker feels the heat as Russia's elite turn on each other

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/putin-s-banker-feels-the-heat-as-russia-s-elite-turn-on-each-other-20241203-p5kvb7.html?utm_content=top_stories&list_name=2032_smh_busnews_pm&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-pm&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2024-12-11&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&instance=2024-12-11-17-40-AEDT&jobid=31029920

[Davexl]

Satellite Photos Show Russian Navy Exodus From Syria, Syrian Missile Boats Sunk at Pier

https://news.usni.org/2024/12/10/satellite-photos-show-russian-navy-exodus-from-syria-syrian-missile-boats-sunk-at-pier?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=c19845c86a

Also,

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360518289/israeli-warplanes-pound-syria-troops-reportedly-advance-deeper-country

[Davexl]

Australian 'diplomacy' beating China at their own game. eg Nauru on 10 Dec (BB)

Australia signed a treaty with the Pacific nation of Nauru which gives Canberra a veto over any potential security and infrastructure partners in exchange for A$140 million in economic assistance. The pact is Australia's second in 12 months in the Pacific and deals another blow to China's efforts to expand its strategic presence in the region.

And now PNG (BB)

Australia and Papua New Guinea have signed a confidential agreement, the Australian government's second security pact in the Pacific in just under a week. It's seen as a win for Australia in its competition with China for strategic influence in the Pacific, following similar agreements with Nauru and Tuvalu.

At least Australia has the 'diplomatic' firepower to do these deals...

[Davexl]

And from Syria (BB)

Russia is nearing an agreement with Syria's new leadership to keep two vital military bases in the country. The fall of President Bashar al-Assad was a personal defeat for Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin: The bases were part of his recent attempts to project power and reclaim some of the Soviet Union's Cold War-era influence. Losing the leases posed a potentially serious strategic setback for Russia's military—with its naval base there its only hub on the Mediterranean Sea, and its airfield crucial to supply the operations of its military and mercenary groups in Africa.

[Davexl]

Something we in New Zealand need to discuss for future nuclear powered port visits by our ally Australia,
and our "like-minded" friend the United States if we are to remain included under the US nuclear deterrence umbrella IMO...

Nuclear deterrence needs to be discussed at ANZMIN

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/nuclear-deterrence-needs-to-be-discussed-at-anzmin/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_28edc102b7df7c044a8cdc0709f86d04&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Nuclear%20deterrence%20needs%20to%20be%20discussed%20at%20ANZMIN

[Davexl]

Aussies & Japanese buying Tomahawk cruise missiles earlier...

MDA Intercepts Ballistic Missile Target in Test of Guam Defenses, Aussies Fire Tomahawk

https://news.usni.org/2024/12/12/mda-intercepts-ballistic-missile-target-in-test-of-guam-defenses-aussies-fire-tomahawk?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=cc1c44986c

[Davexl]

Let the holiday pondering begin!

What Winston Peters' bold words reveal about NZ's China strategy - Fran O'Sullivan  (paywalled)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/what-winston-peters-bold-words-reveal-about-nzs-china-strategy-fran-osullivan/GU77E74JTJFJ7MQ75KFXUIVLW4/

Summary:

New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters, at a China Council event in Wellington, emphasized the country's independent foreign policy amidst evolving relations with China. His speech, ahead of planned diplomatic visits to Beijing, took aim at former leaders Helen Clark and Sir John Key, accusing them of undermining current policy with outdated views and external alignments.

Key points include:

    Criticism of Former Leaders: Peters criticized Helen Clark's anti-nuclear policies and resistance to Aukus agreements as historically prejudiced. He also challenged Sir John Key's connections to Chinese and U.S. interests, suggesting potential conflicts in their influence on New Zealand's foreign policy.

    China and CPTPP Membership: While Peters highlighted complexities in China joining the CPTPP, Key advocated for its inclusion due to China's economic significance. However, geopolitical tensions and security concerns are influencing member nations' hesitations.

    Independent Policy Advocacy: Peters reaffirmed New Zealand's commitment to making pragmatic, merit-based decisions for its national interest. He stressed balancing relations with China while maintaining autonomy from U.S. influence.

The event showcased contrasting approaches to diplomacy and underscored New Zealand's need to navigate its small size and strategic position carefully in a shifting global landscape.

Summarised by ChatGPT

[Waltzing]

right time to get nuclear powered waka's... armed with nuclear shoulder mounted nuclear tipped projectiles....

the new google quantum chips will guide the war head once launched...

the new Photonic chips will provide the waka with non jammed nav guidance ...

you will all know about photonic's for navigation ...

the solutions are all there and an alliance with ukraine will help develoment these 21 century solution to defend the mother land...

[Waltzing]

Is this the New Future.. a barbaric war state ..

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly41x7eg71o

Our grandfathers and mothers would just say

welcome to our world...

who said... everything changes and everything stays the same...

In 1849, French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose " – the more things change, the more they stay the same...

[Davexl]

Some very interesting strategic details in this article...Well worth the read...

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/putins-regime-may-be-closer-to-a-soviet-collapse-than-we-think-20241211-p5kxet.html?utm_content=opinion&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2024-12-16&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&instance=2024-12-16-07-10-AEDT&jobid=31041954

[Davexl]

Russian Forces Appear To Be Pulling Out Of Prized Syrian Air Base

Satellite imagery and drone footage show the packing up of the base's S-400 air defense system and major airlifter activity.

https://www.twz.com/air/russian-forces-appear-to-be-pulling-out-of-prized-syrian-air-base?utm_term=The%20War%20Zone_Wire_ShieldAI_Sponsored_12.13.24&utm_campaign=The%20War%20Zone_Dedicated/Sales&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email

[BlackPeter]

Some very interesting strategic details in this article...Well worth the read...

Putin's regime may be closer to a Soviet collapse than we think

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/putins-regime-may-be-closer-to-a-soviet-collapse-than-we-think-20241211-p5kxet.html?utm_content=opinion&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2024-12-16&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&instance=2024-12-16-07-10-AEDT&jobid=31041954

Here is the article without paywall, though you still need to prove to be a human :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/10/putins-regime-may-be-closer-soviet-collapse-than-we-think/

Interesting: Russia used already 50% of its foreign currency resources since the start of the war. So - another 2 years at the same pace and the funds are gone. Interest rate in Russia already at 21% - and the Russian Ruble is at an all time low and worth less than 1 US cent.

If oil prices drop due to Trump restarting to drill - Russians resources still be used up earlier.

Ah yes, and their weapons technology is reliant on Western semiconductors ... and the article provides a number of examples where their weapons technology is crumbling due to lack of access to reliable western parts. So - the embargo seems to work to a degree.

[Davexl]

Thanks BP, the link to SMH takes me straight to the article, didn't even have to log in.
Must be something to do with coming from the SMH newletter...

[Davexl]

Maybe China not ready by 2027 ? (Corruption)

China has expanded its nuclear force and strengthened ties to Russia, the Pentagon says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360528248/china-has-expanded-its-nuclear-force-and-strengthened-ties-russia-pentagon-says

[Davexl]

Volodymyr Zelenskyy huddles with European leaders as Trump looms (Paywalled)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/volodymyr-zelenskyy-huddles-with-european-leaders-as-trump-looms/XWFXR327IJBOXFCG42UDTFX36Q/

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with NATO chief Mark Rutte and key European leaders in Brussels to discuss security guarantees, increased arms supplies, and strategies for a potential peace process amid Russia's ongoing war.

The talks come as concerns grow over Donald Trump's return to the US presidency, with fears he might reduce US support for Ukraine and push for concessions to Moscow. European leaders emphasized the need for a united stance to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and lasting peace.

The discussions, involving leaders from Germany, Poland, Italy, and others, also explored possible European troop deployments to secure a ceasefire, though no concrete plans have been made.

Zelenskyy called for urgent military aid, including air defense systems, and hinted at a potential ceasefire if NATO guarantees Ukraine's security.

Western allies aim to strengthen Ukraine militarily while avoiding public debates over peace terms to prevent aiding Russia's position.

Summarised by ChatGPT