Retail Stocks

[Waltzing]

with the economy in the you know where... people have stopped bothering to keep time and they have all gone to the beach...

and no big cut coming in feb ..

then..https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/weak-nzd-may-curb-rbnzs-appetite-for-feb-50bp-rate-cut

[KW]

Retailwatch sales data for December. From card spend and comes out before the Stats report.

December sales down a bit on pcp

What is interesting is large fall in online domestic sales .....offshore up but $'s don't offset domestic decline. Probably something to do with timing of Black Friday etc sales

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Maybe due to The Market (Warehouse) being closed down in June?  And otherwise crappy sales numbers from The Warehouse.

[Waltzing]

Brisc taken a bit of a major pull back... NZ only retail looking a bit poor...

Scrap metal merchants looking stable ... TRA .. still cars, vans, pickups arnt really retail...

Transport ..

[Goob]

https://fundamentalgoob.substack.com/p/new-zealand-economic-recovery-trade

[Waltzing]

50 done ... good for retail and everything ...

[Basil]

50 done ... good for retail and everything ...

RBNZ very dovish.  Expecting another 25 bps cut in April and May !  Will definitely help the economy and retail recover.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976524090/ebos-boss-resigns-nz-windfarms-in-take-over.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+19+Feb+2025

[Waltzing]

Market no reaction in fact some downward pressure and maybe global export market outlook is uncertain...

trade ...  no one knows whats coming next...

[BlackPeter]

RBNZ very dovish.  Expecting another 25 bps cut in April and May !  Will definitely help the economy and retail recover.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976524090/ebos-boss-resigns-nz-windfarms-in-take-over.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+19+Feb+2025

Well, yes - but this might well be the seed for the next round of inflation ... NZD dropping, imported inflation rising + Dump making everything more expensive. So, yes, you might be right, but lets be careful of what we wish for ...

[Waltzing]

Yes market did not bounce like the last ocr cut...

the cuts are having no effect on mr market...

it thinks there is no summer coming in the next 12 months...

the fact the Nats are talking company tax cuts and department closures shows maybe more levers are going to be pulled to try to bring the economy back to the surface..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes market did not bounce like the last ocr cut...

the cuts are having no effect on mr market...

it thinks there is no summer coming in the next 12 months...

the fact the Nats are talking company tax cuts and department closures shows maybe more levers are going to be pulled to try to bring the economy back to the surface..

ah the old "cutting spending to spur growth" strategy....its a bold move cotton lets see if it pays off for him.

But back to reality: Mortgage rate cuts take a long time to flow back into economy due to the nature of fixed mortgage rates. For instance despite the OCR sitting at its peak of 5.5% from May 2023 to July 2024, followed by 125 basis points of cuts having occurred between July - November last year, the amount of interest being paid by kiwis on mortgages didn't actually peak until October/November (see link).   

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tywukjsdu7wtdkcag724woy7/bafkreihrhtxfne6ydpg4xtig76q4iqbvd577xvoe6t6dlcumqw42n3sgj4@jpeg

But hopefully come the end of this year, with more people on shorter term mortgages, we should see some real momentum from lower mortgage rates translating in higher consumer discretionary spending

[Waltzing]

great post ... yes the time lag of monetary policy... does it take longer for cuts to take effect due to the slower cutting cycle then the raising..

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2025/02/ocr-375-ocr-reduced-further-as-inflation-abates

[LaserEyeKiwi]

great post ... yes the time lag of monetary policy... does it take longer for cuts to take effect due to the slower cutting cycle then the raising..

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2025/02/ocr-375-ocr-reduced-further-as-inflation-abates

that's a good question. I'll have a hunt for the data, but I know there was a release recently that showed a large amount of mortgage holders have moved to short term mortgages (6 month or 1 year) as the OCR peaked, so compared to the then popular 2 year fixed mortgage on the way up, the cuts should flow through faster one would hope on way down.

Although of course the destination is different - we ain't going back to sub 3% mortgages.

[Waltzing]

yes its all been a bit of turbulent time the last 5 years...

understatement....how on earth is the average investor supposed to keep the faith... and people wonder why money goes into land..

[KW]

Australian Westfield owner (SCG.ASX) blows it out of the water.  Bricks and mortar retail certainly isnt dead in Australia

"In 2024 we welcomed 526 million customer visits, an increase of 14 million compared to 2023. 
Our Westfield membership program now has more than 4.5 million members, increasing by 0.7 million during 2024. 
"Our business partners achieved a record level of sales during 2024 of $29 billion, $544 million more than in 2023. 
"We continue to see strong demand from business partners with occupancy increasing to 99.6% at 31 December 2024, compared to 99.2% at the end of 2023

[lorraina]

Good for HLG,yet not working for MHJ..