Retail Stocks

[Dolcile]

I reluctantly had to visit Rebel Sport on Boxing Day and it was madness.   My wife picked also had to grab a few final stocking fillers on the 23rd and apparently there was nothing left on the shelves at our local Warehouse. 

[Basil]

Got a new pair of New Balance shoes from Rebel today for 35% off.  Fortunately, I know the size and model I wanted so the $6 delivery charge seems like an incredible bargain for the time saved and avoiding the crowd madness.  I took my dog for a walk in the park with the time saved, instead, far more pleasant.  My wife also reported the local warehouse had next to no stock and the checkout queue at K Mart was about 150 meters long yesterday.

[winner (n)]

$ falling (quite fast) and oil price on way up never a good sign for retail ....in both NZ and Oz

[entrep]

Any idea where the NZDUSD can bottom out?

This USD strength is amazing. Usually we only hit 55c during major financial crisis (GFC and Covid)

[BlackPeter]

Any idea where the NZDUSD can bottom out?

This USD strength is amazing. Usually we only hit 55c during major financial crisis (GFC and Covid)

Clearly - a hype peak; And clearly - it will drop as soon as even the dumber part of the world notices that you can't live off charging tariffs you need to pay yourself. Sounds like a perpetuum mobile to me. Google that how it went.

On the other hand - people thought through centuries that man can turn dirt into gold. People believed for millennia in whatever god(s) their forebears made up, and some even believed for years that Trump is a decent guy.

So - hard to predict when this hype bubble stops. Don't think, though it will run for centuries. Remember - the money Mr Musk and his proforma puppet president will splash around to pay for tax cuts for their rich buddies adds to an already unsustainable mountain of federal debt in the US. Countries sitting on huge debt piles are not known for having strong currencies.

On the other hand - I understand our gummit is rising debts as well, so its anybody's best guess who goes broke first.

Well - here we go.
 

[Basil]

Boxing day sales boomed
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/538162/boxing-day-sales-boomed-after-flat-first-half-of-december-retailers

[Waltzing]

there is a reason winners always look on the bright side of life!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M


just remember people you living in a country that can do some simple sums down in wellie wet town... and they havnt got any green pastels colors in their reports till... hum... 2029...

mark that on your calender... but punters still got some lolly. Gov-ment not much ... nuff then..

[Waltzing]

oil just jumped 3.5%...

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

stil well short of a 100 though..

some downward pressure on markets this coming week....

[KW]

Australia's King of Retail just put out a trading update for PMV - stock dropped 16% as a result.  UNI off 5% in sympathy.  ADH off 6%

Things might not be as rosy going forward over there.  Especially with rate cuts looking increasingly off the table.  

Considering the path of inflation overseas, and bond yields going up as a result, the chances of future rate cuts in NZ also look to be in jeopardy.  The only reason NZ has gotten inflation to a level where the RBNZ felt it could drop rates was because NZ was importing deflation from overseas, which offset still too high (4.9%) domestic inflation.  If NZ starts importing inflation it will push the CPI up again, and the RBNZ may be forced to hike again.  This would seriously upset the market which had been banking on lower rates.  The falling NZ$ is also exacerbating the effect of imported inflation.  

After the recent Briscoes downgrade, caution in the high flyers like HLG may be warranted at this point.

[winner (n)]

From that Premier announcement - Premier expects that its Apparel Brands business, consisting of Just Jeans, Jay Jays, Portmans, Dotti and Jacqui E will deliver global sales for 1H25 in the range of $405 million to $412 million and underlying EBIT (pre-AASB 16) in the range of $31 million to $35 million2, $16 million to $20 million less than for 1H24.

Jeez that's a 35%/45% drop in profit

Tough times indeed

[Basil]

PMV on a historical PE of 20, (after this correction today, that's on last year's higher earnings).  UNI is 18.7.  Big difference to HLG's very modest multiple.
Aussie retailers got ahead of themselves ?  Glassons Au eating their lunch ?

[KW]

NO JOY FOR RETAILERS
The end of year holiday retail rush didn't make up for the slow start to the month for retailers. Worldline/Paymark data shows a -0.7% dip in December card use at retail outlets, with the retreat led by major centres Auckland and Wellington, both down -2.0%. Not helping was that average transaction values fell as well compared to the same month a year earlier.

[winner (n)]

Rate cuts to save retail in  NZ ..... maybe not as gyy from BNZ says

"There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet, but the anticipated 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ [Reserve Bank of NZ] in February should not be considered a done deal. Indeed, we think there is much more chance of a 25 than a 75," BNZ senior economist Doug Steel said.

[Waltzing]

ok then how about egg derivatives...

looks like eggs are the investment of the future ..

[winner (n)]

Retailwatch sales data for December. From card spend and comes out before the Stats report.

December sales down a bit on pcp

What is interesting is large fall in online domestic sales .....offshore up but $'s don't offset domestic decline. Probably something to do with timing of Black Friday etc sales

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