Retail Stocks

[Basil]

CNBC this morning.  Oil prices on a tear, up 40% since May.  Possible recession and weaker growth in China Europe and elsewhere don't seem to matter.  Oil just doesn't seem to want to stabilize no matter what.  Starting to concern consumers.
Cost of living concerns are much the same over the Tasman https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/persistent-pessimism-why-australians-are-depressed-about-the-economy-20230912-p5e41v.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+13+September+2023

[Waltzing]

The Evil empires control Oil and they dont want low Oil prices and perhaps the option not to have Nuclear and more Solar is now coming to back to bite western country's...

Retail is going to take a bit of the pounding in this NZ ...

Its a traders world coming and Sir Walter R is the ultimate Trader to follow...

[winner (n)]

RetailWatch September sales report

Total sales +5.3% onnsame month last year

Bit gloomy if you take travel/accomodation and supermarkets out of numbers

Clothing down 4% on pcp, Department Stores down 4% for instance

[Waltzing]

2 year now above the 10...

FoBAR might not be tracking US inflation data... if that settles over the next 4 qtrs this could be the lows and 2025 will come round faster than you think...

super HOT summer coming only beach wear going to be needed..

A whole new generation is just getting started around the world ...  dont under estimate the spending power in the US after the huge increase in US debt...   H&M taking a dip ... but it wil come back... they want the stuff... every generation wants the STUFF.. and there will be more smarter stuff to buy...

[Waltzing]

When it comes to retail :you cant beat the JAPS"

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2023/10/11/archax-robot-japan-cprog-lon-orig-ao.cnn

from phones to transformers ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEIGG-pN7ug

[Waltzing]

US retail stocks move to the upside ...

one more rate hike to come and the US consumer just keeps spending....

[Onemootpoint]

A couple of CNBC links on the matter.

Retail sales came in stronger due to climbing wages
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzmitjOvNnc


Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, much stronger than estimate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5MjgKGwYHI

[Onemootpoint]

Meanwhile, locally (from Interest.co.nz)


WHERE THE RETAIL CUTBACKS ARE:
ANZ reported its card tracking shows small gains in consumer spending in September. Tourism is a bright spot. But for consumers spending on clothing is lower than a year ago despite inflation rising +4.4% for that category. Spending on business goods and services is the other area keeping the overall levels up, especially "utilities and repairs".

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124845/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-thursday-tough-fhbs-they-borrow-anyway

[Onemootpoint]

Low Christmas spending could force struggling retailers to close

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/301007430/newsable-low-christmas-spending-could-force-struggling-retailers-to-close

"...Carolyn Young, who told Newsable why some retailers are on a "knife edge," with Christmas key to whether they'll make it through to next year.
Young said, last quarter, 61% of retailers told Retail NZ they didn't meet their sales targets."

[Waltzing]

R 2000 up today and inflation CORE was flat in the US...

Is this the bottom people... will we see a big rally into XMAS 2024.

[Waltzing]

And here is the break down CPI ....

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-october-2023-in-one-chart.html

[Cod]

R 2000 up today and inflation CORE was flat in the US...

Is this the bottom people... will we see a big rally into XMAS 2024. - W

Yes, IMHO it has already begun.

Tailwinds
Falling CPI - 7.3,7.2,7.2,6.7,6.0,5.6 what's the next number down or up?
Falling NZ 10 Bonds 0.6 percent in two weeks - update just moved below 5.0%.
Falling M2 money supply affecting CPI.
Residential Property sales up last three months.
OCR flat and maybe done.
Migration falling but still high historically.
NZX market lagging against S&P since ATH.
Govt Wrapped up soon finally.
You cannot view this attachment.

[Waltzing]

Great looking CPI numbers there COD.... trending DOWN and thank goodness...

[winner (n)]

Wonder how the Boxing Day sales are going

[KW]

Kathmandu, Rip Curl owner warns of sales wipe-out as consumers remain nervous

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/kathmandu-rip-curl-owner-warns-of-sales-wipeout-as-consumers-remain-nervous/news-story/cd5b2a9699963a94d5f7f7a186aab4bb?amp

Its flagship Kathmandu stores have suffered a 21.6 per cent decline in sales growth for the first four months of fiscal 2024, with much of the pain for the retail owner coming from wholesale channels as volatile trading conditions and macroeconomic challenges saw many retail customers withhold from purchasing orders.

The dour outlook so close to Christmas, and failure for Black Friday figures to reverse collapsing sales trends could be an early sign of things to come for the wider retail sector as businesses navigate a number of economic headwinds.

On Wednesday KMD Brands, which also owns footwear brand Oboz, reported a trading update said group sales were down 12.5 per cent below last year for the first four months of the 2024 financial year although gross margins had shown some improvement. It said the double digit sales drop reflected ongoing weakness in consumer sentiment.