Retail Stocks

[winner (n)]

Watching tv news retail stocks must be a BUY tomorrow

And those thousands of unwanted gifts on Trademe were cash in till once ...and when sold will be cash in till again

Retail on @ roll ...what's there to worry about

[Basil]

Dunno mate.  I am struggling to find 5 NZX stocks I really fancy for 2024 either for the stock market contest or in my real portfolio. My nose for a feed is not picking up any big easy feeds just around the corner ahead. Very weak economy for 2024 is my pick.  Probably better off with just a few high conviction picks on the NZX if you can find them, then overseas markets and some good old fashioned bonds.  I think that Discovery fund that Shareguy likes might see some of my money early next year in addition to the significant investment I have in Barramundi and more moderate position in Marlin.  The N.Z. economy to me feels like lukewarm dirty dishwater.  Just calling it as I see it mate.  Hope I'm wrong and the NZX goes gangbusters in 2024.

[KW]

And what on earth does the market think is going on with MHJ....

should be down at 75 ....

its recession and who buys this stuff in a recession...

lets hope the next result is a true shocker and it stay down till 2025 ...

Remember, the market prices in forward earning expectations, not current earnings.  So factoring in lower interest rates and therefore higher disposable spending, expecations are becoming more positive.  

[Greekwatchdog]

Out of the NZ Herald. Spending flat. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/boxing-day-spending-flat-disappointing-result-for-retailers/DTV3THVLHBEW3HIXYEUZCKHC5E/

[Basil]

Headline should really read, spending down 6.6% in real terms.  Saying its flat doesn't tell the real picture, its down 6.6% in inflation adjusted terms and more on a per capita basis after the huge number of migrants arriving this year.  Just one point of anecdotal data but it contributes towards the view we're in a real recession.

[winner (n)]

Headline should really read, spending down 6.6% in real terms.  Saying its flat doesn't tell the real picture, its down 6.6% in inflation adjusted terms and more on a per capita basis after the huge number of migrants arriving this year.  Just one point of anecdotal data but it contributes towards the view we're in a real recession.

Pretty busy Boxing Day really ......Akl foot traffic up 20% i read somewhere

Retail sales might have been flat but Boxing Day spending has seen the hospitality sector soared with cafes, bars etc up 14.1% on last year.

Seems eating and drinking more popular than shopping .....much more fun I reckon

What recession and cost of living crisis .......a fegurement of economists and media inagination

[Hectorplains]

Pretty busy Boxing Day really ......Akl foot traffic up 20% i read somewhere

Retail sales might have been flat but Boxing Day spending has seen the hospitality sector soared with cafes, bars etc up 14.1% on last year.

Seems eating and drinking more popular than shopping .....much more fun I reckon

What recession and cost of living crisis .......a fegurement of economists and media inagination

Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young said the real impact would be greater than 0.6 percent.

"Whilst a 0.6 percent decline is probably as good as we could have hoped for, it doesn't tell the whole story. You kind of have to overlay the economic factors and the immigration figures to really understand that is quite a significant decline from last year," she said.
RNZ

One man's flat vs one woman's significant decline...

[KW]

Pretty busy Boxing Day really ......Akl foot traffic up 20% i read somewhere

Retail sales might have been flat but Boxing Day spending has seen the hospitality sector soared with cafes, bars etc up 14.1% on last year.

Seems eating and drinking more popular than shopping .....much more fun I reckon

What recession and cost of living crisis .......a fegurement of economists and media inagination

That's just tourists.  Pretty easy to beat last December figures when we had no tourists back then. 

[kiwi2007]

I'm shopping in the UK market at the moment.
UK pension funds and institutions have reduced their holdings of UK shares down from 54% a few years ago to 4.6% now. Basically they've nothing left to sell.
Lot's of investment trusts have been selling at record discounts to NAV. Mid and small cap at bargain prices and domestic banks cheap as chips.
Once this bunch of crooks running the country go things should pick up. 

Edit: Sorry I actually put this in the wrong 'thread'. Should really have been in stock picks or international. Admin feel free to move it.

[KW]

From the AFR
"Retailers riding high on better-than-expected December and Boxing Day sales have been told to prepare for a tough slog in the first months of 2024, as consumers put a lid on spending.  The Australian Retailers Association is expecting seasonal sales to rise 1.6 per cent on last year to $24 billion and a record for December.

"2024 for retailers is going to be a grind," Access Economics economist Chris Richardson tells AFR Weekend. "Things are going to get worse, but I'm not convinced there's going to be a cliff ... conditions will get better as the year advances, but mostly from July onwards."

Department store spending was a bright spot of the sales season and was set to rise by about 4.8 per cent, while clothes sales are also predicted to lift by more than 3 per cent on last year.

"Retailers have reported busy stores and high website traffic, which is in line with expectations given the deep discounts being offered," ARA chief executive Paul Zahra said.  "Many retailers say they are off to a good start. Many retailers have reported a subdued Christmas trade and that the start of the Boxing Day sales have met their expectations".

[seaweed]

From the AFR
"Retailers riding high on better-than-expected December and Boxing Day sales have been told to prepare for a tough slog in the first months of 2024, as consumers put a lid on spending.  The Australian Retailers Association is expecting seasonal sales to rise 1.6 per cent on last year to $24 billion and a record for December.

"2024 for retailers is going to be a grind," Access Economics economist Chris Richardson tells AFR Weekend. "Things are going to get worse, but I'm not convinced there's going to be a cliff ... conditions will get better as the year advances, but mostly from July onwards."

Department store spending was a bright spot of the sales season and was set to rise by about 4.8 per cent, while clothes sales are also predicted to lift by more than 3 per cent on last year.

"Retailers have reported busy stores and high website traffic, which is in line with expectations given the deep discounts being offered," ARA chief executive Paul Zahra said.  "Many retailers say they are off to a good start. Many retailers have reported a subdued Christmas trade and that the start of the Boxing Day sales have met their expectations".

I'm afraid I been a bad boy and have been drinking and buying HLG shares at these lower levels and in a down ward trend. I would have to be an idiot, but just can't help myself and think I might have to go to Share buyers anonymous. I only putting an order in to try and support the sp, went out to mow the lawns and when I got back the order had gone through at 5.20. Didn't think sp would go that low. That is the third time it has happened this week lol      

[Shareguy]

I'm afraid I been a bad boy and have been drinking and buying HLG shares at these lower levels and in a down ward trend. I would have to be an idiot, but just can't help myself and think I might have to go to Share buyers anonymous. I only putting an order in to try and support the sp, went out to mow the lawns and when I got back the order had gone through at 5.20. Didn't think sp would go that low. That is the third time it has happened this week lol      

Sounds like you're having fun seaweed. Many of us can relate to that feeling. Hay your up on the deal,so far. A great company but retail facing some challenges I reckon. Good luck with it.

[seaweed]

Sounds like you're having fun seaweed. Many of us can relate to that feeling. Hay your up on the deal,so far. A great company but retail facing some challenges I reckon. Good luck with it.

I'm up late tonight. Went to visit Sylvia Park and the Hally boys and the Glassy girls this late afternoon and again I say what recession. The Glassy girl told me that Hallensteins did better the Glassons on Boxing day. Hallensteins turnover was about $116K and Glassons only did 96K on that note I am off to bed good night.

[Perky]

I like how you visit the coalface seaweed and talk to the people on the floor.
Great way to see what is really happening. Customer numbers, are the shopping bags full or empty, anecdotes from customer talking to each other....particular in a fashion store when the seasonal ranges need to be on the mark, etc

My only concern is you always going to the same store which is at nz biggest mall and probably Hlg top performing revenue stores...I don't know, just guessing Sylvia park would be near the top just on foot traffic. Not sure if what you seeing at Sylvia Park is how the group will be travelling

It reminds me of the time I was visiting New York in 2005. My friends were raving about this new computer store which you had to make an appointment and had queue's of customers out the door everyday....I visited this store...and it was true. It was big foot print and two story's high. Unfortunately my brain was not engaged to what this business was creating outside of the 1 store I visited.
Anyway I see Apple shares where available for $2.18 in 2005...
Talk about lead a horse to water but can't force it to drink ...lol

Don't currently hold HLG myself...have held in past and certainly on my watch list for sometime in the future.

Good luck with your holding...you have a investment strategy that works for you.

[Basil]

It would seem retail is going to be a very tough space for 2024.  I don't think there's any dispute about that. 

An additional note of caution to keep in mind about the future, (no imminent risk at this point), if we see significant further declines in the year ahead with WHS (position 51 on the NZX50 based on a 6-month price average of $1.74) and HLG, (position 47 but that's based on an average of $5.98 so the shares are already a fair way south of there), is the prospect of NZX50 index exclusion.

In both cases the share price of these stocks would have to fall quite significantly from here, (my estimate 20%), and stay down for several months before the risk becomes more acute.  Just signaling it's another risk to keep in mind in the year ahead.  WHS looks slightly more vulnerable than HLG.  The other prospect which is potentially more imminent is if there is a new float of significant enough size that grants that IPO automatic NZX50 inclusion, is WHS would be removed as its currently position 51.

Disc: No position in either stock.