AIR-Air New Zealand Limited

[Waltzing]

Looks ok... but havnt got time to dig into the loans repayment schedule..

on the surface looks like they controlled costs and are now slugging it to travellers and making hay...

current AS looks ok.. with future bookings added in.  This bird is off the hard deck...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ_1ZyOGOnM

heres the BS...

[winner (n)]

RASK for half year 16.8 cents = Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre

Pre-covid a good year it was around 10 cents

No wonder our CPI is out of control .... while AIR make obscene profits

[Basil]

Yes there is some price gouging going on, hey its Govt controlled so what do you expect lol
That said fuel costs are truly extraordinary and not because of the oil price.
Some very dumb decisions over the years, one of which was getting rid of Masden Point refinery.
Jet fuel similar to diesel in the oil cracking scheme of things.
When we had Marsden point what's known as the cost to crack oil was capped at a maximum of $9 barrel.
The theory was if we got rid of Marsden point the giant refineries of Asia could supply cracked oil cheaper.
The crack spread as its known was recently as high as $70 a barrel, radically affecting all forms of refined fuel. Reported recently on CNBC its down to about $40 now but still many times what it was when we got fuel refined at Marsden point.
The crack spread is one of the main reasons why we are paying such incredibly high prices for diesel and petrol even though oil is now lower than when Russia first invaded Ukraine a year ago today.

I also hear anecdotally from a client that the bitumen at the bottom of the cracking process coming from Asia is much lower quality than what came from Marsden point and this is one of the reasons why the road repairs are not holding up as well.

[Ricky Bobby]

Totally agree with u basil re marsden. It's also things like co2, which is essential for many businesses. Look at the margins that the refineries are now making also... been watching Vea.asx but haven't dipped my toe in yet.. anyway enough from me as this is a airnz forum!

[Waltzing]

while AIR make obscene profit

hope sooooo !!!!!

HOPE SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

not flying her to COPO though... go business the other way...stop over in greece maybe or on the way back..

With the way Tax legistaltion is going in this country its TIME to get out!!!

They wont be able to lower that TAX rates even if a change of GOVT unless they LIST all department on the NZX.

[winner (n)]

Cam Wallace ex AIR and recently resigned from MediaWorks is heading to Qantas  as CEO of Qantas International and Freight ......and maybe could even take over as CEO of the whole thing next year

Foran and Wallace don't get along too well so could be interesting

[Waltzing]

Winner() your all over it... what about earning on SP 500 dropping 20 percent over the next 24 months...

better keep an eye on bloomberg and CNBC!!!!!!

[Crackity]

So The Chair bought 150000 shares on market on the first of March at 78.5cps.

Probably means nothing.

[Waltzing]

For those of you who truly miss the big wild blue yonder and are opera fans... here is a new take on Lakmé - Duo des fleurs...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp_hzrB_FI4

and then a more traditional version .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1ZL5AxmK_A

[winner (n)]

No spare engines so two A320s grounded and thousands and thousands of passengers face disruption

Almost as bad as Cook Strait ferries

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/488423/air-new-zealand-grounds-two-planes-almost-150-000-passengers-impacted

[Basil]

Seems counterintuitive to ground a brand new A321 Neo !
AIR actually pretty cheap if you believe the analysts on FY23 earnings PE of only 6.8 and just on 8 if you believe their guess for FY24.   https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
Not too shabby.
But then I was watching CNBC the other day and saw the forecast PE for United Airlines and they came out with guidance of $11 - $12 per share in earnings this year, current year PE of only 4 !  Haven't looked at how stretched their balance sheet got over the Covid period but I reckon all airlines have a LOT of work to do to restore financial strength.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/UNITED-AIRLINES-HOLDINGS-45899617/financials/

[Waltzing]

is it a BUY MR B? A BB Buy?

[Basil]

Good question...gosh the balance sheet of United is stretched.
AIR - They're certainly making progress rebuilding things no doubt about that.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/407175/389233.pdf
Anecdotally its costing substantially more to travel anywhere now so their RASK looks pretty spectacular but how long will that last ?  This industry is notorious for putting on too much capacity and eventually driving down ROI to uneconomic level's.

AIR has been a reasonably good hunting ground for the Beagle in years gone by but I think I'm inclined towards just keeping a watching brief at this stage.  No doubt at some stage my nose for a feed will get excited by the intoxicating scent and allure of burnt aviation fuel and in a giddy bout of enthusiasm I'll jump back on this rollercoaster for another ride.

[Waltzing]

China just release demo of a new battery that looks interesting for aircraft...

actually it was an article in Stuffed which posted in the international market thread..

 

[Crackity]

On the basis of the updates above, and assuming an average jet fuel price for the remainder of the 2023 financial year of US$95 per barrel, the airline now expects earnings before other significant items and taxation for the 2023 financial year to be in the range of $510 million to $560 million. This compares with the prior guidance range of $450 million to $530 million.


Ooo look an upgrade - next announcement should be all about a dividend this year