AIR-Air New Zealand Limited

[Mr Cashflow]

I never had an Airline in my portfolio. Airline stocks are taking hit never before. What's you take on Air New Zealand? My main concern is its financial health. I can't ignore its high level of debt. I doubt they can achieve reasonable profit in 2023. After right issue the stock price has diluted. Highly appreciate your comments.

[Minimoke]

Customer service is letting them down. 6 hours plus on the phone. 3 - 5 working days by email. And in on a 13 hour flight i'm starving. Hope the wine lasts.

[Benji]

Fly them not buy them is good advice.

[Cod]

I have a speculative buy on watchlist at 30c, but I am horrified to think I might actually have to action it.

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[Mr Cashflow]

https://joi.pm-research.com/content/17/3/35#:~:text=The%20model%20indicates%20that%2C%20while,justified%20for%20especially%20risky%20stocks.
 Quoted from the above link."The model indicates that, while investors should demand margins of safety that are typically 10% to 25% of the share price, larger margins are justified for especially risky stocks."

[nztx]

Fly them not buy them is good advice.

Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink. 

If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some 

[BlackPeter]

Fly them not buy them is good advice.

Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink. 

If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some 

As ususal - timing matters. Airlines are generally terrible long term investments (unless you are THE government with unlimited deep pockets and the option to screw minority shareholders), but they can make amazing trades (well, lets say short term investments).

Trick is to buy when they are low (IMHO not yet) and to sell them before the next red ink shower starts, but latter is not always easy to predict. Always difficult to sell when investments are doing well, and this is the only right time.

[Benji]

Fly them not buy them is good advice.

Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink. 

If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some 

As ususal - timing matters. Airlines are generally terrible long term investments (unless you are THE government with unlimited deep pockets and the option to screw minority shareholders), but they can make amazing trades (well, lets say short term investments).

Trick is to buy when they are low (IMHO not yet) and to sell them before the next red ink shower starts, but latter is not always easy to predict. Always difficult to sell when investments are doing well, and this is the only right time.

Fly them not buy them is good advice.

Good advice that too .. Had AIR on two ocassions & both wound up in a shower
of red ink. 

If there was to be a third (which I doubt) hopefully it recovers all the previous red plus some 

As ususal - timing matters. Airlines are generally terrible long term investments (unless you are THE government with unlimited deep pockets and the option to screw minority shareholders), but they can make amazing trades (well, lets say short term investments).

Trick is to buy when they are low (IMHO not yet) and to sell them before the next red ink shower starts, but latter is not always easy to predict. Always difficult to sell when investments are doing well, and this is the only right time.

Great idea but I not good at trading.
Learning TA but easier buy good companies and not worry.

[Arbroath]

So 55-56 cents finally after the gravity defying efforts through the capital raise period.

I like it here and think it can be $1 by 2025 for the patient holders.

Thoughts?

[nztx]

touched 60c today - are Christmas bookings on Robertson Air currently higher than expected ?

May have get some Jacinda's unreliable 757 crates on some of the routes if this continues
or rapidly dust off some of the retired desert dwelling birds currently home to snakes & scorpions

[Arbroath]

I'd say 53/54 is the lows now. Might be able to retest but it should hold and as the months pass and the cashflow position improves then the share price should pick up next year as they stop losing $$.

[SCOTTY]

Will be interesting to see how the share price reacts if the full year anticipated loss of $750m is achieved.

[winner (n)]

Hadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while

June report makes miserable reading

Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers

Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf

[CG]

Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers

Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf

Surprised you haven't heard that best half of the country was in a strict lockdown for few months during F22

[Basil]

Hadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while

June report makes miserable reading

Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers

Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AIR/396574/376058.pdf

Trouble is CASK will be up a lot more than 29% !