MFB - My Food Bag

[winner (n)]

A lot depends on how long the war goes on. How long is a piece of string...

How long is a piece of string?

Don't think that needs answering

The damage has been done

I'd say that your 'longest and deepest recession since the GFC' has just got longer and deeper ..
Maybe bad times out to 2028

[Basil]

Bit early to make a call like that mate

Anyway...back to MFB, I bought a few more on Friday.

[winner (n)]

Bit early to make a call like that mate

Not really too early

We've sort of faced up to the known knowns but seem to be confident that there are unknown unknowns

The damage has already been done - wonder what's to come

[Basil]

Market dislikes uncertainty but maybe in general regarding geopolitical matters we're now somewhere near peak uncertainty ?

This is a food company that's just announced a 15% improvement in second half performance.  People always need food no matter what's going on overseas or in the local economy. 

Maybe in tougher times people eat out at restaurants less and order MFB packages ?
Maybe if there's no fuel other than for critical service providers like food delivery companies and harder times and you can't drive to the supermarket people order Bargain Box from MFB instead ?  MFB got a huge boost from Covid lockdown's eh.  Some similar type of travelling restriction through lack of fuel could have a similar effect.  Maybe things settle down overseas relatively quickly, (I really hope so but am not especially hopeful), and we're simply left with a company trading on a PE of about 8 that's capable of paying more than 15% gross yield in FY28 and beyond ?

The future is uncertain but I think all that's already baked into the very low share price and this trades on attractive metrics..

[BlackPeter]

A lot depends on how long the war goes on. How long is a piece of string...

On an unrelated topic, they say never waste a crisis. Nicola communicating a heck of a lot better than Chris. Very prime minesteral in her delivery  Sign of a pending change at the top for Narional ? I'd wager it happens sometime in the next 6 months.

Agree with your view of Nicolas communications. However not sure about the proposed timeframe. Any change close to the election will make it worse for National. Even directly now would be a significant risk ... and nobody ready to do it now.

[winner (n)]

Craig's mentioned courier costs up 8% over last month ...another article I saw said 11%

Impact on MFB?

No sign of MFB increasing prices yet.

[winner (n)]

Tony Alexander household spend intentions survey just out shows a net -37% (could be about 70% less and 30% more) in are going to spend more on eating out next 3 to 6 months ....a number as bas as in early 2024.

Not good news for hospo ...maybe a lot more will take up My Food Bag specials ...

[Basil]

I got a few more today. MFB by my calculations will be debt free later this financial year and then it's game on for big fat juicy dividends.

[winner (n)]

Goodness gracious me ...My Food Bag get a write up on Business in an article about fuel costs and Air NZ. Main point was about market disclosures or lack of them.

Other companies, such as MyFoodBag, are in the same boat, yet have not updated the market since the crisis began six weeks ago.

Extract -

Higher fuel prices will already be squeezing My Food Bag's margins by lifting delivery and logistics costs in a business with limited pricing power.

Any diesel shortage would likely pose an even worse operational risk.

[Basil]

They might have apply a temporary fuel surcharge for the extra freight costs. I am sure customers would understand.

Email Tony and let him know a surcharge is okay.

[Habitz]

Will probably limit their delivery radius. We can get MFB deliveries but not KFC... damn damn damn!

[Basil]

but not KFC... damn damn damn!

What does your doctor say about bad Habitz lol

[Habitz]

What does your doctor say about bad Habitz lol

Everything in moderation... but don't actually go to the doctor, no need yet

[Poet]

Goodness gracious me ...My Food Bag get a write up on Business in an article about fuel costs and Air NZ. Main point was about market disclosures or lack of them.

Other companies, such as MyFoodBag, are in the same boat, yet have not updated the market since the crisis began six weeks ago.

Extract -

Higher fuel prices will already be squeezing My Food Bag's margins by lifting delivery and logistics costs in a business with limited pricing power.

Any diesel shortage would likely pose an even worse operational risk.

I'd imagine that MFB would have contractual arrangements for delivery logistics and cost - the fuel price increases won't impact until those contracts expire or come up for renegotiation. Hopefully things calmed down by then.

[Recaster]

MFB, another company with tame auditors.

The journalism 'profession' never seriously investigated what happened here when over $400 million was lost in the IPO.

A kiwi disgrace (among many) benefitting the Dick Turpins of new zealand business.