MFB - My Food Bag

[winner (n)]

Asked AI if Tony was a lucky director -

Tony Carter is recognized as a lucky director due to his extensive governance experience and successful career in various sectors. He has been appointed to boards like Sanford Limited and My Food Bag, contributing significantly to their success and governance. His ability to navigate complex business challenges and drive performance improvements reflects his strategic acumen, which may contribute to the company's success.

So no worries.... my apologines fo thinking otherwise

[Habitz]

AI: shareholders who bought early experienced the opposite of luck.

But arent we supposed to get in early?

[winner (n)]

GSCI is an index that tracks what Foodstuffs are paying for stuff

February report says butchery and seafood up nearly 5% from a year ago .. and produce up about 3%

I'd hazard a guess My Food Bag are experiencing the same sort of increases

Margin in next report will be interesting

[winner (n)]

I won't take credit for them coming out with an update ..but thanks Tony

All fine ...sales up, margins OK and high profit than F25

Share price back to 25 cents place ...be in quick at open to get some more

https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/464625.pdf

[Basil]

Shot off an email to Tony saying we want an update.

At least Tony with all his experience at Air NZ, Fletchers and Warehouse should be able to guide MFB through more hard times if that eventuates ....sorry Tony that's a bit cruel.

You should take the credit mate as should Tony.

Very solid trading update that exceeds my expectations.

People always need food. I'm very impressed by how resilient they have been through the recession and I expect that to continue in FY27 no matter what the geopolitical environment.

A reminder that I am forecasting they will be debt free late next financial year adding further resiliency to their business, lowering costs and potentially significantly raising dividends.

VERY happy indeed with that trading update.

[winner (n)]

Headline was 'Momentum Continues'

Wow - some momentum - yes real momentum

H1 NPAT was +0% on pcp but H2  NPAT is +15% v pcp

The +15% from sales being being up 6% so margins/costs really under control

Looking good for F27 if this momentum continues

[Dolcile]

To be a little pedantic ... the NPAT for FY25 was actually $6.35m which in my mind rounds up to $6.4m which is at the bottom end of the FY26 guidance.  The guidance says FY25 was $6.3m.

A little cute for mine.

[LoungeLizard]

Headline was 'Momentum Continues'

Wow - some momentum - yes real momentum

H1 NPAT was +0% on pcp but H2  NPAT is +15% v pcp

The +15% from sales being being up 6% so margins/costs really under control

Looking good for F27 if this momentum continues

Headline was 'Momentum Continues'

Wow - some momentum - yes real momentum

H1 NPAT was +0% on pcp but H2  NPAT is +15% v pcp

The +15% from sales being being up 6% so margins/costs really under control

Looking good for F27 if this momentum continues

MFB are coming off such a low base that sales being up 4.9% is hardly anything to get excited about. Same goes for talking about "growing profitability" when the guidance NP range of $6.4m-$6.8m is barely above FY25's result of $6.3m.
We are in uncertain times of increasing global costs, inflation and a potential interest rate hike. Discretionary item business's like MFB (with a shonky past) are not worth the punt imo.

[Basil]

Unsurprisingly as a holder I see it differently. First half was down a bit so as Winner is suggesting there really is genuine momentum in the second half.

Looking ahead its not hard to imagine that we could be headed into a fuel supply crisis where only essential service providers can access fuel

This could easily get a Covid lockdown type bounce.

[Auto Rower]

We are in uncertain times of increasing global costs, inflation and a potential interest rate hike. Discretionary item business's like MFB (with a shonky past) are not worth the punt imo.

what is a shonky past supposed to be, we are all company's included in uncertain times .
Nothing shonky about the dividends or becoming debt free unless you bought in at the I P O price

[Basil]

I have them on a PE of 8.2. I think in FY28 when they are debt free they can pay 2.5 cps fully imputed. If so that's 15.4% gross yield at 22.5 xps.

[winner (n)]

I suppose when they say '......it is still too early to assess how the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East will impact My Food Bag. We remain closely connected with our suppliers ...' is code for yes input costs aree going to go up quite a lot but we have no idea how much ..... and hopefully plans in place to mitigate.

I note list selling prices still haven't moved

[Basil]

If I recall correctly they're buying direct from farmer suppliers more these days. Early days for farm input prices to be reflected in asking prices for farm outputs.

Distrbution costs will be rising. Everyone is going to have to get used to paying a bit more. Nicola Willis been handling herself well apart from her guess on worst case inflation rate estimate of 3.7%. That's looking like a best case scenario to me.

[winner (n)]

Despite what Nicola and Chris (and Mike Hosking) tell us the economy isn't going to get better over the next year (or so). NZ be lucky to avoid another recession

Insofar as Demand for MFB stuff goes it'll depend on how far up the K curve the bad times go. The well off won't be affected but a lot of those that are reasonably comfortable now will drift into the have nots - impacting MFB

Intersting times coming up ...not just for MFB but a lot of other companies

[Basil]

A lot depends on how long the war goes on. How long is a piece of string...

On an unrelated topic, they say never waste a crisis. Nicola communicating a heck of a lot better than Chris. Very prime minesteral in her delivery  Sign of a pending change at the top for Narional ? I'd wager it happens sometime in the next 6 months.