SKT - Sky Network Television

[Mysterion]

Redeploying my capital to companies like Berkshire Hathaway after I collected my Sky dividend is a decision I am very happy with

[mistaTea]

I suppose I should have taken your advice and invested all my cash in...property!

AHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA!!!!

[Shareguy]

Craig's liked the result

SKT – Micah Barr and Wade Gardiner maintained the overweight rating on SKT overnight after an in line FY23 result at both the revenue and EBITDA level. Consistent with the theme of recent results, SKT continued to show incremental progress, particularly on cost saving initiatives and continued moderation of satellite churn at 10.5%. Capex at $77m was above the $65-75m range guided to at the 1H23 result and was the only notable difference to our forecasts ($74m) but reflects the delay of the new Sky Box roll-out and some higher-than-expected development spend. Importantly SKT detailed new three-year financial targets issued for FY26 across revenue growth, programming costs, EBITDA margins, capex targets and the intention to 'double the dividend' on the 15cps paid in FY23. Using the 60-90% of free cash flow pay-out policy, we can back-solve several assumptions that are required to achieve the 30cps dividend target by FY26. We estimate the targeted 30cps dividend can be funded by FCF over the period, at which point shares would trade at an attractive 11.8% FY26 dividend yield assuming the current $2.55 share price. Our DCF based TP rises to NZ$3.04 (previously NZ$2.95) ... with more confidence in the medium to long term forecasts we maintain our Overweight rating

[Mysterion]

[Mysterion]

Everyone has had the $3 (30c) price target going back years

[LoungeLizard]

Well the SP did get to $2.90 less than 18 months ago. Near enough?

[mistaTea]

Very optimistic view by some of the analysts (which is nice for a change I suppose!).

If TVNZ don't try to keep in the mix for sports rights that will help Sky.

If WMD don't make a play for sports rights in NZ (even though they are making plays for sports abroad) that will help Sky.

If there is no other new entrant to sport (like DAZN) that will help Sky.

If any of the above does not hold true (and Sky do not return to a monopoly) then it will keep pressure on content costs.

Also yet to be seen what NZR+ is and whether it impacts sky subs if the next NZR deal is co-exclusive.

Then we need to see if Max launches in NZ and if that has much of an impact on NEON subs.

Though Sky is doing as well as can be expected in the current environment as a middleman - there are still a lot of 'ifs' and that is why (I suspect) the SP has not really moved from where it has been sitting for a ages now despite promises of doubling the dividend etc.

[Mysterion]

I suppose I should have taken your advice and invested all my cash in...property!

AHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA!!!!

If you bought before covid, then yes.

Good bargains out there now.

Buying Berkshire is pretty much just an investment in Apple.

[Mysterion]

https://get.nzrplus.com/



"Currently"

[mistaTea]

Buying Berkshire is pretty much just an investment in Apple.

That statement will probably become more true over time if Apple continue to aggressively buy back their shares.

BRK owning a bigger slice of apple over time without sinking any more cash into it is a problem I am happy to live with.

[mistaTea]

https://cordcuttersnews.com/warner-bros-discovery-will-start-streaming-live-news-sports-on-max-soon/?amp=1

It would be very surprising if WMD did not start bidding for sports rights.

They will def want sport if they release max in NZ, but I think they would also want to pick up some for TV3 to try boost ad revenue.

And they don't have to win rugby or all of the big competitions for this to be a problem for Sky.

They only need to pick up a couple of deals and be in the mix for bidding on others to ensure the content costs stay high (and probably go higher).

Just like Spark Sport - they never got anywhere near rugby, but they did pick up a few things like the cricket and it was enough to ensure all sports rights were elevated to cost levels we had never seen before.

[mistaTea]

Good to see Sophie's promise to pay heaps and heaps of money to shareholders at some point in the future when everything is rosy again is paying off with quoted value of the stock.

[Mysterion]

"stream now for free"

[Mysterion]

https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/sport/350058949/nzr-better-expected-what-does-it-mean-all-blacks-and-sky

When it comes to the next broadcast deal post 2025, NZ Rugby has manufactured some competitive tension with Sky. Spark Sport may be gone, but NZR+ has taken its place.

[mistaTea]

If you download their app, the first screenshot in the App Store has NZR+ branding as "The New Home of Rugby".

A bit of a jab at Sky? Warning shot?