SKT - Sky Network Television

[Mysterion]

Market cap now $377M and dropping.

Assume market cap of $300M max after cash returned.

They would be lucky to get a 15% takeover premium. But who is going to buy Sky TV for $350M? With the huge risks to the business...what would someone think they could feasibly grow Sky too?

The purchase price would have to be at least a 50% discount to intrinsic value. More probably given the headwinds.

Does anybody think that Sky have a path to $700M valuation?

Content owners don't want to buy old school aggregators like SKT because they don't need them.

NZ telcos don't want to buy SKT now because they have also realised they don't need them. Spark and 2D main relationships are with NETFLIX and AP. These guys can offer sweet bundles to their customers without taking any risk by being in the content game. So this avenue (owning the network) is all but closed off to Sky now I think.

That really leaves NZME. Both companies are in a bit of a sticky spot. The TVNZ-RNZ merger not good for either. So they probably are better off together (and SM says there is all this upside to ad revenue, so if MW was a great idea then NZME is a great idea too). SKT shareholders can buy NZME by issuing shares.

I think this approach will help Sky diversify and become a bigger media entity, but is unlikely to make the investment community suddenly think Sky is a growth company. It would absolutely slow down the deteroriaton of quoted value though and give both SKT and NZME a better chance of remaining relevant in the NZ media landscape. Still a lot of risks even if they are a merged entity, but they would have a better chance.

Foxtel still control sports in Australia. Paid heaps for Aussie rules. Thus making them still relevant. Their sports streaming is doing well.

Sky just need to copy that. IE, pay over the top for rugby again in 2025. This means ZERO DIVIDNEDS, hence Sky shareprice will stay negative. But market cap should still be $300m given future revenue etc.

In other words, they just need to survive and be a "pain" and eventually overseas companies like WBD and Comcast will just say "fu*k it, let's just buy them"

As an investor it's just about buying in a few weeks before that happens to get dem ezi gainz!!

[mistaTea]

I still think there is great value in having almost 1m customer relationships.

Streaming numbers have probably peaked and satellite continues to shrink. I think they have hit peak customers and that number is more likely to decrease over time, not increase.

It is all about what Sky can do in the future, not what has happened in the past.

[mistaTea]

Foxtel still control sports in Australia. Paid heaps for Aussie rules. Thus making them still relevant. Their sports streaming is doing well.

Sky just need to copy that. IE, pay over the top for rugby again in 2025. This means ZERO DIVIDNEDS, hence Sky shareprice will stay negative. But market cap should still be $300m given future revenue etc.

In other words, they just need to survive and be a "pain" and eventually overseas companies like WBD and Comcast will just say "fu*k it, let's just buy them"

As an investor it's just about buying in a few weeks before that happens to get dem ezi gainz!!

Hilarious post.

Yes that will be their approach "F it, by virtue of them still hanging in there we 'may as well'". They have to see value in Sky and how it will help them grow.

[Mysterion]

Streaming numbers have probably peaked and satellite continues to shrink. I think they have hit peak customers and that number is more likely to decrease over time, not increase.

It is all about what Sky can do in the future, not what has happened in the past.

They claim streaming is making up for loss of satellite.

Revenue is not their problem. It's the margin that's being squeezed. Costs cutting over last 2 years has helped but it's still being squeezed with increased content costs.

Business under new ownership that's vertically integrated would be solid! IE Silverlake or WBD as owners!!

Market cap is sub USD $150m. It's ridiculous bro! You know the US based PE are interested!

[Mysterion]

Hilarious post.

Yes that will be their approach "F it, by virtue of them still hanging in there we 'may as well'". They have to see value in Sky and how it will help them grow.

YOUR WORSE NIGHTMERE = SKY BEING BOUGHT OUT WEEKS AFTER YOU SELLIN YOUR SHARES!! JUST LOL IF IT HAPPENS!!

Bro, takeover now is a possibility.

What are management gonna do when the stock goes sub $2 and PK and John start blowing up the phone!!!

[mistaTea]

They claim streaming is making up for loss of satellite.

Revenue is not their problem. It's the margin that's being squeezed. Costs cutting over last 2 years has helped but it's still being squeezed with increased content costs.

Business under new ownership that's vertically integrated would be solid! IE Silverlake or WBD as owners!!

Market cap is sub USD $150m. It's ridiculous bro! You know the US based PE are interested!

1. Growth in streaming did offset decline in satellite...last year. We know satellite subs will continue to fall...is anyone expecting streaming growth to maintain last year and fully offset the satellite decline? They need to keep replacing each loss in satellite subs with four streamers to break even...

2. Your bit about the currency. Yes, the NZD is low to USD...but that means ALL NZ assets are cheap now by the same proportion. When these guys are circling around trying to figure out what to buy, they are still looking at each business and its growth prospects relative to other options they could buy instead.

3. Sky being taken over now would surprise me, but not my worst nightmare at all. I am happy with the alternatives I have found for the cash I have. and don't feel anything about which way the SP goes. I know that is probably hard for you to believe because you feel differently.

I am still curious to see how things do play out for Sky though. Obviously I spent a lot of time learning about the business, talking to industry contacts etc - so the interest in the industry/company is still there from a curiosity perspective for sure.

[Mysterion]

I am happy with the alternatives I have found for the cash I have.

Yeah, and where's that bro?

Or are you waiting for the ONE NZ IPO?

[mistaTea]

https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/28-09-2022/skys-new-sky-box-is-an-improvement-but-it-still-seems-stuck-in-the-past

[Mysterion]

https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/28-09-2022/skys-new-sky-box-is-an-improvement-but-it-still-seems-stuck-in-the-past

The new box is already a flop.

As popular as their broadband it seems!

[Mysterion]

Bowman buying KMD not Sky!!!

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/399612/380036.pdf





Maybe the takeover is happening now??

[mistaTea]

Listening to some soothing hold music while I am transferred to the Sky 'cancellation team'. They must be very busy.

[mistaTea]

My TV is mounted on the wall and I only use Amazon Prime and NEON. I occassionally watch the news recorded on the box but that is it - I can stream that on TVNZ or 3NOW.

My living room setup will look better without the box now that the TV is mounted - and the Sony Bravia handles all my viewing needs (no additional hardware required).

[Mysterion]

2.14!



The buy depth looks terrible too!

[Mysterion]

Shareholder meeting a little over 4 weeks away!

No Covid so will be actual meeting!

Will Bowman fly half way around the world to attend???

JUST LOL @
-Buying $200k of KMD but not Sky
-Shows his face at SKY meeting![/b]

[Mysterion]

2.08