SKT - Sky Network Television

[Mysterion]

SKY TV in the UK

Sky signals end of satellite dishes on homes amid move to streaming

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/27/sky-to-offer-most-services-via-set-top-streaming-box

Sky currently has an exclusive deal to show HBO shows, such as Game of Thrones, in the UK, bu this deal runs out in 2025 – at which point HBO is expected to fold them into its own streaming products.

HBO deal expiring in 2025. Sure to be the same in NZ. NZRU also renewing in 2025.

Clock is ticking.

Need a takeover sometime between now and then.

[Perky]

Are you a Skt shareholder mysterion?
I am small holder. Happy to hold and see what plays out.

[Mysterion]

Are you a Skt shareholder mysterion?

[mistaTea]

Looks like 2D have ditched the NEON/Sky Sport NOW deals they had with mobile and broadband.

Last time I checked you got 6 months free SSN with some mobile plans and 6 months free NEON with broadband.

They have expanded their Amazon Prime offer though so now you get 12 months free AP with fibre.

The sheer quanity of quality content on Amazon Prime now, for a measly $8/month. Their library got a shot in the arm when they bought MGM too. All the James Bond movies and so much more.

Amazon will probably end up being the 'streaming aggregator' of choice in time. And they sure as sh1t don't need a set top box to do it.

[Mysterion]

Same price in May 2020

[Mysterion]

-Management says company at "inflection point" and has turned the corner.
-Stock trading at same price 2 years ago

[Crackity]

Are you a Skt shareholder mysterion?
I am small holder. Happy to hold and see what plays out.

For a while I thought the forum was gonna get renamed Skytalk.co.nz

I believe Ogg and Mr T are now ex holders - make of that what you will....

[Mysterion]

Skytalk.co.nz

[mistaTea]

Looks like 2D have ditched the NEON/Sky Sport NOW deals they had with mobile and broadband.

Last time I checked you got 6 months free SSN with some mobile plans and 6 months free NEON with broadband.

They have expanded their Amazon Prime offer though so now you get 12 months free AP with fibre.

The sheer quanity of quality content on Amazon Prime now, for a measly $8/month. Their library got a shot in the arm when they bought MGM too. All the James Bond movies and so much more.

Amazon will probably end up being the 'streaming aggregator' of choice in time. And they sure as sh1t don't need a set top box to do it.

So I asked a friend of mine who works at 2D about them dropping the NEON/SSN wholesale deal and expanding the Amazon Prime arrangement...and the reply was "Uptake shite. Deal shite. Amazon out performs."

Not great for Sky when your friends don't even want to take your 'deal' any more.

The more I think about it and consume the Amazon Prime service, the clearer it seems that they are going to be the streaming aggregator of the future. They will take over this space like they take over everything else. It would not shock me at all if they did some sort of a deal with Warner-Disco. Maybe even buy them one day like they did MGM.

Their platform is great, costs almost nothing ($8/month) and has a really awesome library of content. Difficult to compete with.

They spent something like US$3.5B buying MGM and are also spending a reported US$1B on the LOTR series. I think these guys are pretty damn serious about becoming #1.

[Perky]

I believe Ogg and Mr T are now ex holders - make of that what you will....
[/quote]

Cheers crackity. Yeah I thought they were ex holders but it's seems highly unusual for an ex holder to spend so much time and energy on something you used to hold.
I smell a rat. I reckon the mysterion ogg is in for a trade.

Cmon mysterion fess up?

[Mysterion]

I believe Ogg and Mr T are now ex holders - make of that what you will....


Cheers crackity. Yeah I thought they were ex holders but it's seems highly unusual for an ex holder to spend so much time and energy on something you used to hold.
I smell a rat. I reckon the mysterion ogg is in for a trade.

Cmon mysterion fess up?

Yeah bro, that's how I make a living, by spamming sh*t posts on a stock forum read by less than 3 people.

[Mysterion]

Market speculation that Comcast is going to takeover Warner Bros Discovery.

https://deadline.com/2022/09/warner-bros-discovery-merger-talks-david-zaslav-not-for-sale-town-hall-1235129580/

JUST LOL!!!



LAW OF THE UNIVERSE = When ever there is potential for a takeover of Sky that company gets taken over.

[mistaTea]

Market speculation that Comcast is going to takeover Warner Bros Discovery.

https://deadline.com/2022/09/warner-bros-discovery-merger-talks-david-zaslav-not-for-sale-town-hall-1235129580/

JUST LOL!!!



LAW OF THE UNIVERSE = When ever there is potential for a takeover of Sky that company gets taken over.

Still don't see why you think anyone is interested in buying Sky TV for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Sky had their chance to transform when they were still producing hundreds of millions of dollars in operating cashflows. But they cancelled their STB project, made bad investments in things like RP, Overpaid for content and now have no real plan for growth (and hence are just handing cash over to shareholders).

Buying into a legacy business (both legacy in terms of their business model and physical infrastructure) is not attractive to when you consider what you are up against with the big streamers who also own content.

Sky does not own any content, not do they own the network. Their selling point of the content bundle is only attractive to Boomers now as most people don't want to watch a lot of the stuff that comes with their entertainment packages.

As I keep saying, they had their chance - buying Vocus NZ for $700M looks like a steal now and would have given them a chance. But they would rather own some billboards and a radio station it seems.

The big content guys won't buy Sky now because they don't need them. It is all about scale now, which they can all get by going OTT globally. Sky TV cannot get scale. And they will probably increase advertising revenue as it seems likely all of these guys are going to offer a cheapier tier that has ads.

Maybe if Sky's market cap gets very very low someone might see another puff or two in the cigar butt.

[mistaTea]

Market cap now $377M and dropping.

Assume market cap of $300M max after cash returned.

They would be lucky to get a 15% takeover premium. But who is going to buy Sky TV for $350M? With the huge risks to the business...what would someone think they could feasibly grow Sky too?

The purchase price would have to be at least a 50% discount to intrinsic value. More probably given the headwinds.

Does anybody think that Sky have a path to $700M valuation?

Content owners don't want to buy old school aggregators like SKT because they don't need them.

NZ telcos don't want to buy SKT now because they have also realised they don't need them. Spark and 2D main relationships are with NETFLIX and AP. These guys can offer sweet bundles to their customers without taking any risk by being in the content game. So this avenue (owning the network) is all but closed off to Sky now I think.

That really leaves NZME. Both companies are in a bit of a sticky spot. The TVNZ-RNZ merger not good for either. So they probably are better off together (and SM says there is all this upside to ad revenue, so if MW was a great idea then NZME is a great idea too). SKT shareholders can buy NZME by issuing shares.

I think this approach will help Sky diversify and become a bigger media entity, but is unlikely to make the investment community suddenly think Sky is a growth company. It would absolutely slow down the deteroriaton of quoted value though and give both SKT and NZME a better chance of remaining relevant in the NZ media landscape. Still a lot of risks even if they are a merged entity, but they would have a better chance.

[Mysterion]

Still don't see why you think anyone is interested in buying Sky TV for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Sky had their chance to transform when they were still producing hundreds of millions of dollars in operating cashflows. But they cancelled their STB project, made bad investments in things like RP, Overpaid for content and now have no real plan for growth (and hence are just handing cash over to shareholders).

Buying into a legacy business (both legacy in terms of their business model and physical infrastructure) is not attractive to when you consider what you are up against with the big streamers who also own content.

Sky does not own any content, not do they own the network. Their selling point of the content bundle is only attractive to Boomers now as most people don't want to watch a lot of the stuff that comes with their entertainment packages.

As I keep saying, they had their chance - buying Vocus NZ for $700M looks like a steal now and would have given them a chance. But they would rather own some billboards and a radio station it seems.

The big content guys won't buy Sky now because they don't need them. It is all about scale now, which they can all get by going OTT globally. Sky TV cannot get scale. And they will probably increase advertising revenue as it seems likely all of these guys are going to offer a cheapier tier that has ads.

Maybe if Sky's market cap gets very very low someone might see another puff or two in the cigar butt.

You know the takeover is coming, it's just a question of when.

Best time was mid 2021. PE offer at $2.30 was great starting point. Should have taken it and a bidding war could have happened.

Now it seems more likely a takeover will come post 2025, in which Sky's market cap will be sub $100m. That will be more of a bail out then a takeover.

I still think there is great value in having almost 1m customer relationships.