SKT - Sky Network Television

[Mysterion]

So basically Foxtel's adjusted revenue increased 1%???

Streaming revenue made up for all the losses from satellite (a.k.a residential)??

Costs were similar but only because discount in sports rights??

[Mysterion]

Sky NZ need to come out and say that Neon and SSN have offset all of the losses in revenue. Assuming of course that Broadband revenue is basically zero.

How much did Sky NZ save from NZRU last year because of covid? I thinking not as much as Foxtel.

[mistaTea]

Sky NZ need to come out and say that Neon and SSN have offset all of the losses in revenue. Assuming of course that Broadband revenue is basically zero.

How much did Sky NZ save from NZRU last year because of covid? I thinking not as much as Foxtel.

In the HY results, they did show that (for the first time) gains in streaming revenue have offset losses in satellite revenue.

I expect that trend flowed through to the FY results.

This has only been possible because the base has been stabilised. Streaming will continue to grow, and so growth in streaming revenue will exceed satellite revenue losses moving forward.

[Mysterion]

In the HY results, they did show that (for the first time) gains in streaming revenue have offset losses in satellite revenue.

I expect that trend flowed through to the FY results.

This has only been possible because the base has been stabilised. Streaming will continue to grow, and so growth in streaming revenue will exceed satellite revenue losses moving forward.

Foxtel Streaming only makes up 20% of revenue.

For every satellite customer lost you pretty much have to onboard 5 streaming customers or convert the loss account and then find 4 new customers.

As time goes by it becomes harder to replace the revenue as the pool of customer shrink. Plus this was during the "Covid streaming boom time!" Streaming growht for FY23 is going to be weak, especially with price increases. That's why Netflix stock fell!

[mistaTea]

Foxtel Streaming only makes up 20% of revenue.

For every satellite customer lost you pretty much have to onboard 5 streaming customers or convert the loss account and then find 4 new customers.

As time goes by it becomes harder to replace the revenue as the pool of customer shrink. Plus this was during the "Covid streaming boom time!" Streaming growht for FY23 is going to be weak, especially with price increases. That's why Netflix stock fell!

Yes, that is correct...

But if your satellite base stops shrinking (or shrinks at a galacial speed) then all new streaming customers are money for jam.

This is the phase in the business cycle that Sky is heading into.

The new STB has the potential to actually grow the base too. Then you are really in Heaven.

Broadband is here to stay because it makes STB customers even stickier. Numbers of current broadband customers won't be mind blowing, but they will keep chipping away over time.

[Mysterion]

I think Sky's NZ results on the 25th will reflect an "older market", ie it will show results for Covid streaming Boom and costs saving from sports.

It won't show results from the recent increased cost in Neon and the decline from the recent AB performance. And also the  cost of living cris and inflation is really a March/April - June, which is only 3 or 4 months of results. Customer also pay 1 months fee up front so it takes time for churn to come through.

Point is, that Sky's results over the last year are likely to be good BUT forward guidance over FY23 still very much looking weak IMO.

[Mysterion]

Yes, that is correct...

But if your satellite base stops shrinking (or shrinks at a galacial speed) then all new streaming customers are money for jam.

This is the phase in the business cycle that Sky is heading into.

The new STB has the potential to actually grow the base too. Then you are really in Heaven.

Broadband is here to stay because it makes STB customers even stickier. Numbers of current broadband customers won't be mind blowing, but they will keep chipping away over time.

You're clutching at straws here bro!!

I do agree that it's likely revenue will be flat and going forward revenue will also likely be flat because of price increases will offset other declines and also the fact that Sky has beaten Spark Sport etc

But there is NO REVENUE GROWTH HERE BRO!!

[mistaTea]

Point is, that Sky's results over the last year are likely to be good BUT forward guidance over FY23 still very much looking weak IMO.[/size]

If you are right, then they will be stingy in cash return this year.

Let's see.

I think they will continue to grow.

[Mysterion]

If you are right, then they will be stingy in cash return this year.

Let's see.

I think they will continue to grow.

Cash return will be the only highlight!

I have the gut feeling that they want to keep the cash to "BUY" REVENUE and protect them from increased costs next year

[mistaTea]

You're clutching at straws here bro!!

I do agree that it's likely revenue will be flat and going forward revenue will also likely be flat because of price increases will offset other declines and also the fact that Sky has beaten Spark Sport etc

But there is NO REVENUE GROWTH HERE BRO!!

They are already growing revenue.

I think you are still struggling to understand how businesses like Sky fare in recessionary environments.

On the whole, it tends to be beneficial for us.

The idea that NEON customers are going to flee in droves because they have to pay another buck a month is nuts. Especially when the platform is still relatively cheap relative to NETFLIX (and has better content)

[Mysterion]

They are already growing revenue.

[Mysterion]

Bro, the can't sustain a healthy dividend going forward. That's the point!

[Mysterion]

EV at $2.50 is ~$400m

Let's assume that Sky posts similar results to Foxtel. You would have to say it's fairly valued. Maybe $3 would be absolute max but only on takeover speculation!!

[mistaTea]

EV at $2.50 is ~$400m

Let's assume that Sky posts similar results to Foxtel. You would have to say it's fairly valued. Maybe $3 would be absolute max but only on takeover speculation!!

Pretty sure you are just mift because you wanted the SP to drop more before you bought in and now the price has run away on you.

[Mysterion]

Pretty sure you are just mift because you wanted the SP to drop more before you bought in and now the price has run away on you.

And you said you were selling soon...