SKT - Sky Network Television

[mistaTea]

Yes, results will be within guidance as satellite numbers will be solid. And yes, people don't cancel sky (satellite) even if there is a living crisis.

What will be below expectation is neon and broadband.

It's likely Neon will take a huge hit! This is why they announced the price rise after 30th June so it won't effect the customer numbers in the upcoming results presentation.

Lots of people canceling Netflix so one would assume major exit of Neon too.

Total customer numbers will likely sink back into the 800's. I would assume sky will likely not mention total customer numbers anymore.

JUST LOL if you think they are going to release broadband numbers!



Streaming growth is pretty much dead now. Dunno what Sky will use as a narrative after the dividend and cash back is done. I think that's why they wanted mediaworks ie something to tell investors about how everything will be fine long term.

I hope they don't release broadband numbers.

It will be embarrassing and probably just cause the SP to dip further!!

[Mysterion]

It's all relative bro.

Compared to Netflix and WarnerDiscovery (and many other media stocks), the Sky share price (and/or EV) has done relativity OK since the massive global sell off in stocks. The share price seems to have just jugged along while everything else has been in chaos. So you could view this as a net "gain". Even foxtel IPO got pulled and their valuation laughed at while Sky just kept on going. It's as if everything else re-adjusted while Sky stood the same. Hence that it's all relative.

The only cockup was the mediaworks acquisition. Not only has this created a huge distraction but a few investors (both retail & institutional) bailed and this not only put downward pressure on the stock but it has also scared new investors away. The stock would likely be $2.50 - $2.70 today otherwise. But overall the EV value today (accounting for mediaworks cockup) seems reasonable compared to others stocks, especially when comparing valuations back in 2021.

The only question is weather the cash return and dividend has been factored into the share price and should the shareprice be trading higher now that these events are drawing closer. In my opinion these have both been factored into the share price which brings us back to the question why the EV is so low.

The EV is low, likely due to the fact (as you put it) the earnings power will continue to be low. This is what the market is anticipating going forward. Low earnings power doesn't mean reduced earnings power (like what happened during 2015-2020) but what it means is that the "revenue growth" and "streaming growth" that Sky has been touting recently, or more accurately, since Moloney took the reins, is unlikely to materialise. In other words, broadband, Neon, SSN, TV advertising, pub/hotel/event revenue, & basically all other revenue etc that's not satellite revenue is not going to offset the slowing decline in satellite revenue. Thus going forward, revenue will likely stall or drop again in 2023 or 2024. This is why they wanted to buy Mediaworks, so that top line revenue would grow and their narrative of "return to revenue growth" would be maintained. It's now looking like the opposite and revenue will drop again. Therefore you would need to return to reducing expenses to create earning power but Sky are probably getting close to optimal operational performance and now there are even less things to sell off to create cash returns. Suggesting things like "Sky mobile" is just a pipe dream and will end up like SKy broadband ie another a money pit!!

The point is bro, THE EV IS THE EV!! This is the price the market is willing to pay because you have to wait year after year to get your average dividend and then hope at the end of the long mutli-year wait that you can still sell off your shares to get your equity back. Otherwise what's the point in investing!!

The possibility of a takeover is the only thing keeping the stock at a level that's not a total embarrassment or "Martin" tier. Throwing in cash now at these levels isn't a bad investment because a takeover could happened tomorrow at $3.50. JUST LOL if you're buying the stock now because of future dividends. Pretty much just dead money. Might as well head down to the track and put it on the TAB.

Let's fast forward to say November, and we're post cash return and dividend and the EV is $250m. As a shareholder, you got a bit of cash back, great. Now what. You're holding a company with very modest amount of cash - unable to buy anything substantial and banks unlikely to extend credit so rule out any acquisitions as sky is on it's own now. You have to now wait 6 months for another dividend. The new sky box is slowly coming out. OK great, maybe a few VTV customers join, and maybe a few older customers come back but Sky broadband by now is likely dead or gone. Another Neon price rise then hits? NZRU/Silverlake start making moves. Feb results come but what could there possibly be to look for now? Pray to God that Satellite subs save the day. Come on bro, one day Superman won't be there to save you anymore and the game will be up. Sure, not next year, or the year after, but you know one day Superman won't be there and all that's left is Neon and some other sh*tty creation the board dreamed up to pump the shareprice!

I'm telling you bro, if the takeover talk dies or goes, then the EV will keep dropping and you'll be back on here posting your dripple you like did back in 2018-2019. What happens is the EV drops, then the gamblers and punters come in and the shareprice goes back up. That's pretty much the game lately and will be in the future. This is just a punters stock and not a Munger stock at all. Sky has no earnings power, it just has 500k Ma and Pa satellite customers that, granted, have a few years left to milk, but then what?? Seriously bro, the quicker this thing gets taken over the better for everyone. You'll be talking sh*t about the EV this time next year I bet. I don't see the stock going higher unless a takeover comes. If WarnerDiscovery or Comcast pass on Sky, then it's pretty much all over. Sky will merge with 2degrees but it will be more of a bailout then a merger. Just like the 2017 Vodafone merger a non event shareprice wise. That's the risk for you bro, you could be holding this thing for another 3 or 4 years and then it mergers with 2degrees but you just get your cash back, no gains! You pretty much wasted 7 years of your life here for nothing.

The investment community hates Sky, that's why the EV will likely remain low - forever! Everyone I ask says Sky is dog sh%t, and the few people that actually know the company well don't ever say it will 10 bag but that it's "undervalued" at best or they see the takeover potential. Nobody ever says it's cheap and will grow. Only Blackcrane said it was worth 40c that one time but we all know Peter is delusional and just stumbled upon here. He was buying pre pandemic at $1 - Just lol. Look at the share registry, it hasn't changed for years. ACC and Jupitar still there. Probably don't even follow the stock anymore.

Seriously bro, there's no future here. Sky should have merged with Vodafone then none of this bull sh*t would have happened. Martin had lots of opportunities to turn it all around but f*cked up at every corner. Could have done the Comcast deal, sold the building, canceled RugbyPass, bought the property next door, sorted out the work culture, stripped out the cost like what Foxtel did, but no, it all went to sh*t. Now Moonley has it and we're all supposed to believe she's a miracle worker and can save the say - just lol. What's she done bro? Broadband is dead, Sky box is delayed, Neon price going through the roof, MEDIAWORKS - just lol, fixed the work culture maybe but remember she was "chief people" during the whole thing, she got rid of Handley maybe, that's the only positive. Seriously bro, what is there to look forward to here and look who's running the ship. You got all these old muppets on the board. McBride has been around too long (don't even remember her once saying anything ever), she needs to go. Smith has like a million appointments, this old man has seen better days. Have you seen the new directors instagram page - just lol, although to be fair he's only just joined so the verdict is still out but why appoint another younger guy like this. Don't even get me started on you know who!! But coming back to Moonley, she was just thrown in there when Martin bailed. She's a lawyer and doesn't have that many credits. They keep going on how customers are important and they keep saying this is a "reflection point" but  what does that even mean? Investors are getting a cash return after giving Sky money in a huge placement a year before - seriously wtf. Getting a dividend now after not getting a dividend at all! That's just a negative returning to neutral. How is that a "reflection point"? The "reflection point" is basically that they didn't go bankrupt and now they're back from the dead, that's pretty much it. But now what, they'll just gonna die again unless a takeover happens.

At the end of the day it probably doesn't matter who's driving the ship. Moonley, Martin, Munger, it's all the same bro. The entire business model is foundered on the fact that people can't be bothered to ring up and cancel their Sky satellite subscription or return their sky box because that's just a big pain in the arse so nobody does it. If anything a new sky box might end up being a bad thing because then people might think the new box is sh*t and returning the old box wasn't such a pain in the arse after all so now they'll just gonna pull the plug for good. I actually like the old Sky box. I know all the quirks and short cuts, I know how to push the back button quickly and make the menu jump fast. It's old clunky thing but it works fine. The new box will probably just be fill of bloatware and streaming sh*t that nobody wants. Probably has spyware on it too. Seriously bro, the EV is where it's at for a reason. You have to wait 10 years of dividends to get your money back and hope that the NZRU deal gets renewed and that WarnerDiscovery still want to aggregate their media. WarnerDiscovery are a monster now. They can run Discovery NZ at loss and they don't even care. They're the big boys here. They can just pull the pin on Sky and kill it overnight if they want too. NZRU and Silverlake are scheming as well. Sky has on friends, it's all on it's own and soon it won't have any cash beacause of all the grump shareholders wanting money! Soon their lease will be up and they'll have no where to go!! Pray to God that WarnerDiscovery can't be arse pulling the plug and will just buy Sky because they can't be bothered to start from scratch again. Maybe Comcast will through a dumby bid in for lols and yes, you might make a bid of money here, but j**** chrit bro, there are easy ways to make cash. And to say it doesn't effective you is just stupidity not bravery. Having the equivalent of the price of a house in NZ investing in this stock is just bonkers. You need your head checked bro! You've become overly invested in this stock to the point where you believe any piece of crap you read on line and will twist it into some positive and then go on about how the EV is undervalued and the market is dumb and you're the child of warren buffet or some sh*t - just lol.

Remember LionsClub bro, I'll say it again, remember LionsClub! That's the lesson here...

[Mysterion]

Alright, I'm outta here

[mistaTea]

It's all relative bro.

Compared to Netflix and WarnerDiscovery (and many other media stocks), the Sky share price (and/or EV) has done relativity OK since the massive global sell off in stocks. The share price seems to have just jugged along while everything else has been in chaos. So you could view this as a net "gain". Even foxtel IPO got pulled and their valuation laughed at while Sky just kept on going. It's as if everything else re-adjusted while Sky stood the same. Hence that it's all relative.

The only cockup was the mediaworks acquisition. Not only has this created a huge distraction but a few investors (both retail & institutional) bailed and this not only put downward pressure on the stock but it has also scared new investors away. The stock would likely be $2.50 - $2.70 today otherwise. But overall the EV value today (accounting for mediaworks cockup) seems reasonable compared to others stocks, especially when comparing valuations back in 2021.

The only question is weather the cash return and dividend has been factored into the share price and should the shareprice be trading higher now that these events are drawing closer. In my opinion these have both been factored into the share price which brings us back to the question why the EV is so low.

The EV is low, likely due to the fact (as you put it) the earnings power will continue to be low. This is what the market is anticipating going forward. Low earnings power doesn't mean reduced earnings power (like what happened during 2015-2020) but what it means is that the "revenue growth" and "streaming growth" that Sky has been touting recently, or more accurately, since Moloney took the reins, is unlikely to materialise. In other words, broadband, Neon, SSN, TV advertising, pub/hotel/event revenue, & basically all other revenue etc that's not satellite revenue is not going to offset the slowing decline in satellite revenue. Thus going forward, revenue will likely stall or drop again in 2023 or 2024. This is why they wanted to buy Mediaworks, so that top line revenue would grow and their narrative of "return to revenue growth" would be maintained. It's now looking like the opposite and revenue will drop again. Therefore you would need to return to reducing expenses to create earning power but Sky are probably getting close to optimal operational performance and now there are even less things to sell off to create cash returns. Suggesting things like "Sky mobile" is just a pipe dream and will end up like SKy broadband ie another a money pit!!

The point is bro, THE EV IS THE EV!! This is the price the market is willing to pay because you have to wait year after year to get your average dividend and then hope at the end of the long mutli-year wait that you can still sell off your shares to get your equity back. Otherwise what's the point in investing!!

The possibility of a takeover is the only thing keeping the stock at a level that's not a total embarrassment or "Martin" tier. Throwing in cash now at these levels isn't a bad investment because a takeover could happened tomorrow at $3.50. JUST LOL if you're buying the stock now because of future dividends. Pretty much just dead money. Might as well head down to the track and put it on the TAB.

Let's fast forward to say November, and we're post cash return and dividend and the EV is $250m. As a shareholder, you got a bit of cash back, great. Now what. You're holding a company with very modest amount of cash - unable to buy anything substantial and banks unlikely to extend credit so rule out any acquisitions as sky is on it's own now. You have to now wait 6 months for another dividend. The new sky box is slowly coming out. OK great, maybe a few VTV customers join, and maybe a few older customers come back but Sky broadband by now is likely dead or gone. Another Neon price rise then hits? NZRU/Silverlake start making moves. Feb results come but what could there possibly be to look for now? Pray to God that Satellite subs save the day. Come on bro, one day Superman won't be there to save you anymore and the game will be up. Sure, not next year, or the year after, but you know one day Superman won't be there and all that's left is Neon and some other sh*tty creation the board dreamed up to pump the shareprice!

I'm telling you bro, if the takeover talk dies or goes, then the EV will keep dropping and you'll be back on here posting your dripple you like did back in 2018-2019. What happens is the EV drops, then the gamblers and punters come in and the shareprice goes back up. That's pretty much the game lately and will be in the future. This is just a punters stock and not a Munger stock at all. Sky has no earnings power, it just has 500k Ma and Pa satellite customers that, granted, have a few years left to milk, but then what?? Seriously bro, the quicker this thing gets taken over the better for everyone. You'll be talking sh*t about the EV this time next year I bet. I don't see the stock going higher unless a takeover comes. If WarnerDiscovery or Comcast pass on Sky, then it's pretty much all over. Sky will merge with 2degrees but it will be more of a bailout then a merger. Just like the 2017 Vodafone merger a non event shareprice wise. That's the risk for you bro, you could be holding this thing for another 3 or 4 years and then it mergers with 2degrees but you just get your cash back, no gains! You pretty much wasted 7 years of your life here for nothing.

The investment community hates Sky, that's why the EV will likely remain low - forever! Everyone I ask says Sky is dog sh%t, and the few people that actually know the company well don't ever say it will 10 bag but that it's "undervalued" at best or they see the takeover potential. Nobody ever says it's cheap and will grow. Only Blackcrane said it was worth 40c that one time but we all know Peter is delusional and just stumbled upon here. He was buying pre pandemic at $1 - Just lol. Look at the share registry, it hasn't changed for years. ACC and Jupitar still there. Probably don't even follow the stock anymore.

Seriously bro, there's no future here. Sky should have merged with Vodafone then none of this bull sh*t would have happened. Martin had lots of opportunities to turn it all around but f*cked up at every corner. Could have done the Comcast deal, sold the building, canceled RugbyPass, bought the property next door, sorted out the work culture, stripped out the cost like what Foxtel did, but no, it all went to sh*t. Now Moonley has it and we're all supposed to believe she's a miracle worker and can save the say - just lol. What's she done bro? Broadband is dead, Sky box is delayed, Neon price going through the roof, MEDIAWORKS - just lol, fixed the work culture maybe but remember she was "chief people" during the whole thing, she got rid of Handley maybe, that's the only positive. Seriously bro, what is there to look forward to here and look who's running the ship. You got all these old muppets on the board. McBride has been around too long (don't even remember her once saying anything ever), she needs to go. Smith has like a million appointments, this old man has seen better days. Have you seen the new directors instagram page - just lol, although to be fair he's only just joined so the verdict is still out but why appoint another younger guy like this. Don't even get me started on you know who!! But coming back to Moonley, she was just thrown in there when Martin bailed. She's a lawyer and doesn't have that many credits. They keep going on how customers are important and they keep saying this is a "reflection point" but  what does that even mean? Investors are getting a cash return after giving Sky money in a huge placement a year before - seriously wtf. Getting a dividend now after not getting a dividend at all! That's just a negative returning to neutral. How is that a "reflection point"? The "reflection point" is basically that they didn't go bankrupt and now they're back from the dead, that's pretty much it. But now what, they'll just gonna die again unless a takeover happens.

At the end of the day it probably doesn't matter who's driving the ship. Moonley, Martin, Munger, it's all the same bro. The entire business model is foundered on the fact that people can't be bothered to ring up and cancel their Sky satellite subscription or return their sky box because that's just a big pain in the arse so nobody does it. If anything a new sky box might end up being a bad thing because then people might think the new box is sh*t and returning the old box wasn't such a pain in the arse after all so now they'll just gonna pull the plug for good. I actually like the old Sky box. I know all the quirks and short cuts, I know how to push the back button quickly and make the menu jump fast. It's old clunky thing but it works fine. The new box will probably just be fill of bloatware and streaming sh*t that nobody wants. Probably has spyware on it too. Seriously bro, the EV is where it's at for a reason. You have to wait 10 years of dividends to get your money back and hope that the NZRU deal gets renewed and that WarnerDiscovery still want to aggregate their media. WarnerDiscovery are a monster now. They can run Discovery NZ at loss and they don't even care. They're the big boys here. They can just pull the pin on Sky and kill it overnight if they want too. NZRU and Silverlake are scheming as well. Sky has on friends, it's all on it's own and soon it won't have any cash beacause of all the grump shareholders wanting money! Soon their lease will be up and they'll have no where to go!! Pray to God that WarnerDiscovery can't be arse pulling the plug and will just buy Sky because they can't be bothered to start from scratch again. Maybe Comcast will through a dumby bid in for lols and yes, you might make a bid of money here, but j**** chrit bro, there are easy ways to make cash. And to say it doesn't effective you is just stupidity not bravery. Having the equivalent of the price of a house in NZ investing in this stock is just bonkers. You need your head checked bro! You've become overly invested in this stock to the point where you believe any piece of crap you read on line and will twist it into some positive and then go on about how the EV is undervalued and the market is dumb and you're the child of warren buffet or some sh*t - just lol.

Remember LionsClub bro, I'll say it again, remember LionsClub! That's the lesson here...

I will say it again - OGG for CEO!

I agree with you mate. I agree with everything.

[mistaTea]

It's all relative bro.

Compared to Netflix and WarnerDiscovery (and many other media stocks), the Sky share price (and/or EV) has done relativity OK since the massive global sell off in stocks. The share price seems to have just jugged along while everything else has been in chaos. So you could view this as a net "gain". Even foxtel IPO got pulled and their valuation laughed at while Sky just kept on going. It's as if everything else re-adjusted while Sky stood the same. Hence that it's all relative.

The only cockup was the mediaworks acquisition. Not only has this created a huge distraction but a few investors (both retail & institutional) bailed and this not only put downward pressure on the stock but it has also scared new investors away. The stock would likely be $2.50 - $2.70 today otherwise. But overall the EV value today (accounting for mediaworks cockup) seems reasonable compared to others stocks, especially when comparing valuations back in 2021.

The only question is weather the cash return and dividend has been factored into the share price and should the shareprice be trading higher now that these events are drawing closer. In my opinion these have both been factored into the share price which brings us back to the question why the EV is so low.

The EV is low, likely due to the fact (as you put it) the earnings power will continue to be low. This is what the market is anticipating going forward. Low earnings power doesn't mean reduced earnings power (like what happened during 2015-2020) but what it means is that the "revenue growth" and "streaming growth" that Sky has been touting recently, or more accurately, since Moloney took the reins, is unlikely to materialise. In other words, broadband, Neon, SSN, TV advertising, pub/hotel/event revenue, & basically all other revenue etc that's not satellite revenue is not going to offset the slowing decline in satellite revenue. Thus going forward, revenue will likely stall or drop again in 2023 or 2024. This is why they wanted to buy Mediaworks, so that top line revenue would grow and their narrative of "return to revenue growth" would be maintained. It's now looking like the opposite and revenue will drop again. Therefore you would need to return to reducing expenses to create earning power but Sky are probably getting close to optimal operational performance and now there are even less things to sell off to create cash returns. Suggesting things like "Sky mobile" is just a pipe dream and will end up like SKy broadband ie another a money pit!!

The point is bro, THE EV IS THE EV!! This is the price the market is willing to pay because you have to wait year after year to get your average dividend and then hope at the end of the long mutli-year wait that you can still sell off your shares to get your equity back. Otherwise what's the point in investing!!

The possibility of a takeover is the only thing keeping the stock at a level that's not a total embarrassment or "Martin" tier. Throwing in cash now at these levels isn't a bad investment because a takeover could happened tomorrow at $3.50. JUST LOL if you're buying the stock now because of future dividends. Pretty much just dead money. Might as well head down to the track and put it on the TAB.

Let's fast forward to say November, and we're post cash return and dividend and the EV is $250m. As a shareholder, you got a bit of cash back, great. Now what. You're holding a company with very modest amount of cash - unable to buy anything substantial and banks unlikely to extend credit so rule out any acquisitions as sky is on it's own now. You have to now wait 6 months for another dividend. The new sky box is slowly coming out. OK great, maybe a few VTV customers join, and maybe a few older customers come back but Sky broadband by now is likely dead or gone. Another Neon price rise then hits? NZRU/Silverlake start making moves. Feb results come but what could there possibly be to look for now? Pray to God that Satellite subs save the day. Come on bro, one day Superman won't be there to save you anymore and the game will be up. Sure, not next year, or the year after, but you know one day Superman won't be there and all that's left is Neon and some other sh*tty creation the board dreamed up to pump the shareprice!

I'm telling you bro, if the takeover talk dies or goes, then the EV will keep dropping and you'll be back on here posting your dripple you like did back in 2018-2019. What happens is the EV drops, then the gamblers and punters come in and the shareprice goes back up. That's pretty much the game lately and will be in the future. This is just a punters stock and not a Munger stock at all. Sky has no earnings power, it just has 500k Ma and Pa satellite customers that, granted, have a few years left to milk, but then what?? Seriously bro, the quicker this thing gets taken over the better for everyone. You'll be talking sh*t about the EV this time next year I bet. I don't see the stock going higher unless a takeover comes. If WarnerDiscovery or Comcast pass on Sky, then it's pretty much all over. Sky will merge with 2degrees but it will be more of a bailout then a merger. Just like the 2017 Vodafone merger a non event shareprice wise. That's the risk for you bro, you could be holding this thing for another 3 or 4 years and then it mergers with 2degrees but you just get your cash back, no gains! You pretty much wasted 7 years of your life here for nothing.

The investment community hates Sky, that's why the EV will likely remain low - forever! Everyone I ask says Sky is dog sh%t, and the few people that actually know the company well don't ever say it will 10 bag but that it's "undervalued" at best or they see the takeover potential. Nobody ever says it's cheap and will grow. Only Blackcrane said it was worth 40c that one time but we all know Peter is delusional and just stumbled upon here. He was buying pre pandemic at $1 - Just lol. Look at the share registry, it hasn't changed for years. ACC and Jupitar still there. Probably don't even follow the stock anymore.

Seriously bro, there's no future here. Sky should have merged with Vodafone then none of this bull sh*t would have happened. Martin had lots of opportunities to turn it all around but f*cked up at every corner. Could have done the Comcast deal, sold the building, canceled RugbyPass, bought the property next door, sorted out the work culture, stripped out the cost like what Foxtel did, but no, it all went to sh*t. Now Moonley has it and we're all supposed to believe she's a miracle worker and can save the say - just lol. What's she done bro? Broadband is dead, Sky box is delayed, Neon price going through the roof, MEDIAWORKS - just lol, fixed the work culture maybe but remember she was "chief people" during the whole thing, she got rid of Handley maybe, that's the only positive. Seriously bro, what is there to look forward to here and look who's running the ship. You got all these old muppets on the board. McBride has been around too long (don't even remember her once saying anything ever), she needs to go. Smith has like a million appointments, this old man has seen better days. Have you seen the new directors instagram page - just lol, although to be fair he's only just joined so the verdict is still out but why appoint another younger guy like this. Don't even get me started on you know who!! But coming back to Moonley, she was just thrown in there when Martin bailed. She's a lawyer and doesn't have that many credits. They keep going on how customers are important and they keep saying this is a "reflection point" but  what does that even mean? Investors are getting a cash return after giving Sky money in a huge placement a year before - seriously wtf. Getting a dividend now after not getting a dividend at all! That's just a negative returning to neutral. How is that a "reflection point"? The "reflection point" is basically that they didn't go bankrupt and now they're back from the dead, that's pretty much it. But now what, they'll just gonna die again unless a takeover happens.

At the end of the day it probably doesn't matter who's driving the ship. Moonley, Martin, Munger, it's all the same bro. The entire business model is foundered on the fact that people can't be bothered to ring up and cancel their Sky satellite subscription or return their sky box because that's just a big pain in the arse so nobody does it. If anything a new sky box might end up being a bad thing because then people might think the new box is sh*t and returning the old box wasn't such a pain in the arse after all so now they'll just gonna pull the plug for good. I actually like the old Sky box. I know all the quirks and short cuts, I know how to push the back button quickly and make the menu jump fast. It's old clunky thing but it works fine. The new box will probably just be fill of bloatware and streaming sh*t that nobody wants. Probably has spyware on it too. Seriously bro, the EV is where it's at for a reason. You have to wait 10 years of dividends to get your money back and hope that the NZRU deal gets renewed and that WarnerDiscovery still want to aggregate their media. WarnerDiscovery are a monster now. They can run Discovery NZ at loss and they don't even care. They're the big boys here. They can just pull the pin on Sky and kill it overnight if they want too. NZRU and Silverlake are scheming as well. Sky has on friends, it's all on it's own and soon it won't have any cash beacause of all the grump shareholders wanting money! Soon their lease will be up and they'll have no where to go!! Pray to God that WarnerDiscovery can't be arse pulling the plug and will just buy Sky because they can't be bothered to start from scratch again. Maybe Comcast will through a dumby bid in for lols and yes, you might make a bid of money here, but j**** chrit bro, there are easy ways to make cash. And to say it doesn't effective you is just stupidity not bravery. Having the equivalent of the price of a house in NZ investing in this stock is just bonkers. You need your head checked bro! You've become overly invested in this stock to the point where you believe any piece of crap you read on line and will twist it into some positive and then go on about how the EV is undervalued and the market is dumb and you're the child of warren buffet or some sh*t - just lol.

Remember LionsClub bro, I'll say it again, remember LionsClub! That's the lesson here...

[mistaTea]

Sky introducing a cheaper tier NEON sub that only streams in SD is such a stupid idea.

Ogg must be right - NEON subs under pressure so they are scrambling to boost them - and have come up with another asinine idea to do it.

If they want to offer up a cheaper tier they should do an ad supported version (like NETFLIX are about to do) but still stream in HD.

The fact they don't even offer 4K yet is baffling enough.

Hard to make the case to hold 'forever' when the clowns running the show (board and management) continue to do such stupid things.

[Mysterion]

Sky introducing a cheaper tier NEON sub that only streams in SD is such a stupid idea.

Ogg must be right - NEON subs under pressure so they are scrambling to boost them - and have come up with another asinine idea to do it.

If they want to offer up a cheaper tier they should do an ad supported version (like NETFLIX are about to do) but still stream in HD.

The fact they don't even offer 4K yet is baffling enough.

Hard to make the case to hold 'forever' when the clowns running the show (board and management) continue to do such stupid things.

Neon is under pressure for sure!!

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=106&topicid=298743

The recent price increase is gonna kill all growth going forward. The younger generation (who make up most of Neon customers) are most effected as they will be under pressure from raising interest rates (as they have houses/loans etc) and will be looking to reduce costs. The problem is that it's so easy to cut the streaming chord, where as returning the Sky box is a mission to do, and you then also need something to replace the free TV channels with. There's sh*t content coming through on Neon and no GOT or other tentpole shows to keep viewers engaged.

If streaming and broadband fail, which by all measures looks likely going forward, then there's nothing to prop up the revenue growth.

This is why ironically, the mediaworks merger makes sense, as advertising will likely be Sky's best alternative revenue stream as they can get a better margin on this - it's almost all profit! The advertising  market has bounced back so having a billboard/Radio/TV company all in one sort of looks compelling.

IMO, if WarnerDiscovery and Comcast both pass on a takeover by the end of the year, then maybe Sky need to re-look at MediaWorks but at a reduced price. Not $300m, but more like debt plus $20m or something. Again, sh*t outcome, but what else is there to do??? Media companies need to continue to consolidate and if MW is the only option out there, then they might as well do it.

[mistaTea]

Neon is under pressure for sure!!

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=106&topicid=298743

The recent price increase is gonna kill all growth going forward. The younger generation (who make up most of Neon customers) are most effected as they will be under pressure from raising interest rates (as they have houses/loans etc) and will be looking to reduce costs. The problem is that it's so easy to cut the streaming chord, where as returning the Sky box is a mission to do, and you then also need something to replace the free TV channels with. There's sh*t content coming through on Neon and no GOT or other tentpole shows to keep viewers engaged.

If streaming and broadband fail, which by all measures looks likely going forward, then there's nothing to prop up the revenue growth.

This is why ironically, the mediaworks merger makes sense, as advertising will likely be Sky's best alternative revenue stream as they can get a better margin on this - it's almost all profit! The advertising  market has bounced back so having a billboard/Radio/TV company all in one sort of looks compelling.

IMO, if WarnerDiscovery and Comcast both pass on a takeover by the end of the year, then maybe Sky need to re-look at MediaWorks but at a reduced price. Not $300m, but more like debt plus $20m or something. Again, sh*t outcome, but what else is there to do??? Media companies need to continue to consolidate and if MW is the only option out there, then they might as well do it.

Better to merge with NZME. No cash needed.

See if they can boost the SP with a divvy and then merge.

At least NZME have some digital platforms sky could showcase select content on.

That is Plan B if no takeover in my view.

[Mysterion]

Better to merge with NZME. No cash needed.

See if they can boost the SP with a divvy and then merge.

At least NZME have some digital platforms sky could showcase select content on.

That is Plan B if no takeover in my view.

NZME don't want Sky. Their digital subscription business is looking good, and now they are expanding into Australia.

Mediaworks on the other hand is drowning in debt and vendors wanted out.

There is no plan B. It's takeover by WarnerDiscovey or Comcast, that's it!

Re-reading the newsletter to me, it seems like they are going to hold onto almost all of the cash. Sure, there will be a decent dividend in September, maybe a special dividend on top but not actual "hard" cash return.

It's likely that they will pivot back to Mediaworks next year and in the meantime they will try and communicated their "plan" and case for the merger, but on better terms. This is why I think they will hold onto most of the cash as the merger isn't dead, it's just been delayed, once global markets recover and once it's confirmed that Broadband is dead and Neon is falling.

I'm sure they are right now creating big PDF presentation ready for next year!!!

Sorry bro, (IMO) no big cash return for you!!

[Plata]

This company becomes less investible by the day. In a worst case scenario where sky revenue declines steadily over multiple years, is management up to the task of cost cutting enough to maintain profitability? I'm not so sure. I recall in a meeting transcript from the last year or so that there was more cost cutting to come and I am very interested to see how well they have done on that front in the result. I'm trying to become more familiar with the financials so I can run some scenarios in excel and see just how bloody things could get, interested to know if anyone has done the same?

[mistaTea]

NZME don't want Sky. Their digital subscription business is looking good, and now they are expanding into Australia.

Mediaworks on the other hand is drowning in debt and vendors wanted out.

There is no plan B. It's takeover by WarnerDiscovey or Comcast, that's it!

Re-reading the newsletter to me, it seems like they are going to hold onto almost all of the cash. Sure, there will be a decent dividend in September, maybe a special dividend on top but not actual "hard" cash return.

It's likely that they will pivot back to Mediaworks next year and in the meantime they will try and communicated their "plan" and case for the merger, but on better terms. This is why I think they will hold onto most of the cash as the merger isn't dead, it's just been delayed, once global markets recover and once it's confirmed that Broadband is dead and Neon is falling.

I'm sure they are right now creating big PDF presentation ready for next year!!!

Sorry bro, (IMO) no big cash return for you!!

I agree they will hoard a huge pile of the cash. No two ways about it.

NZME would be keen on sky in light of the TVNZ-RNZ merger I think.

But, then again, what would I know. I am just a patsy at the end of the day!!

[Mysterion]

I agree they will hoard a huge pile of the cash. No two ways about it.

NZME would be keen on sky in light of the TVNZ-RNZ merger I think.

But, then again, what would I know. I am just a patsy at the end of the day!!

Give old Johnny boy at Osmium Partners a call!

[Plata]

I agree they will hoard a huge pile of the cash. No two ways about it.

NZME would be keen on sky in light of the TVNZ-RNZ merger I think.

But, then again, what would I know. I am just a patsy at the end of the day!!

Other than advertising and management synergies, how does a merger like this help neon or satellite customers grow/not decrease?

[Mysterion]

Other than advertising and management synergies, how does a merger like this help neon or satellite customers grow/not decrease?

I don't know who came up with the NZME/Sky merger idea. Probably another MT invention.

Advertising and management synergies is probably enough to justify the merger. Media companies globally have been doing vertical integrations like this just to survive.

There was once a time when NZME was $20m market cap. That would be been great to pick it up then. Imagine buying that instead of Rugbypass and actually getting some change back!!

[mistaTea]

Other than advertising and management synergies, how does a merger like this help neon or satellite customers grow/not decrease?

It doesn't.

But it helps sky boost advertising revenue. And revenue from NZME subs.

You lure more paying NZME subs by streaming select sky content on their digital platforms (sport and entertainment). Some NZME subs might go on to pick up a NEON sub if they like the content - it becomes advertising for sky products.

Minor cost saving synergies.

But the synergies are really the same as whatever sky thought they were going to get with MW.

NZME just don't have the billboards, but they do have digital platforms (that I think are better for sky).

But I am a bonafide moron at the end of the day - the fact I think it is an option for sky just highlights how stupid the idea probably is.