TESLA

[KW]

"Tesla's Model Y was the #1 bestselling model in California in 2022 (with 87,257 registrations) and the Model 3 was the #2 bestselling model (with 78,934 registrations), both beating by a wide margin the Toyota RAV4 (59,794 registrations) and the Toyota Camry (55,967 registrations).
Toyota and Honda used to rule California. Going back to the 1990s, the Camry and the Civic fought over the top two slots.
In 2021, the Camry was still the #1 bestseller (61,599), chased by the Model Y (60,394). The Honda Civic had dropped to #3 (59,818), just ahead of #4, the RAV4 (59,157). The Model 3 was #5 (53,572).
So for the California auto market, it was quite a show in 2022: The year when Toyota and Honda models were dethroned, and not by Ford or by GM or whatever, but by EVs, and by a wide margin."
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/10/ev-sales-spiked-in-california-share-hit-17-in-2022-ice-vehicle-sales-plunged-first-uptick-in-electricity-sales-after-13-years-of-declines/

[Basil]

Cathy Wood reckons its going to $US1,500!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison-tesla-bull-cathie-wood-sees-stock-at-us1500/D3T2EFXPWVARREPG3LDWP6UIIE/
Intersting reading the comments.  I reckon this guy Richard C (not me) has hit the nail on the head

Tesla had brilliant 1st mover advantage with EV's but the more mature automakers are catching up fast. Tesla's build quality issues are not yet solved and their quirky minimalist design is beginning to date. If Telsa are to continue dominance, they will need to release new designs and resolve build quality issues, all in the face of hugely increased competition from Chine (BYD), Kia, BMW and Mercedes. Right now they are dropping prices to retain market share, not a long term solution and not a path to support what is an over valued share price already when profit is taken in to account

I see Tesla in N.Z. dropped the Model 3 and Y prices $2,000 over the weekend. 

[KW]

"Right now they are dropping prices to retain market share, not a long term solution"

It is, when you send most of the others bust 
Remember, there is no more free money.  Companies that are not making profits on stuff are going to go out of business.  And quickly.  All Tesla has to do is squeeze their competitors, so that the more cars they make the more money they lose.  They have a couple of years of high interest rates to do a lot of damage.  The first ICE car bans come into effect in 2030 - thats only 7 years away.  Telsa is betting that ICE manufacturers cannot profitably make the transition, and its likely that they will be right.  

This is what Amazon did post dot.com crash.  Just squeezed competitors out of business, until they had 50% market share in every category they entered.  Anyone that survived the squeeze, Amazon then bought out. 

Don't expect Elon Musk to think inside the box.  Ultimately I believe we are heading to a world where private ownership of cars are outlawed.  We will move to an Uber system of single vehicle public transport, starting with human drivers but ultimately ending with self driving cars.  So cars are going to become fleet vehicles, which means design is irrelevant.  Sure a few die hards might want their own car, and want one that looks cool, but as more and more people live in garageless apartments the more they will become dependent on things like rideshare, Uber, community cars for hire etc.  

Its no coincidence that Tesla is pushing into the fleet business, an area that most automakers avoid.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/tesla-cars-are-becoming-a-popular-choice-with-fleet-operators

And I wouldnt be surprised if Tesla and Uber merge down the track 

[BlackPeter]

"Right now they are dropping prices to retain market share, not a long term solution"

It is, when you send most of the others bust 
Remember, there is no more free money.  Companies that are not making profits on stuff are going to go out of business.  And quickly.  All Tesla has to do is squeeze their competitors, so that the more cars they make the more money they lose.  They have a couple of years of high interest rates to do a lot of damage.  The first ICE car bans come into effect in 2030 - thats only 7 years away.  Telsa is betting that ICE manufacturers cannot profitably make the transition, and its likely that they will be right. 

This is what Amazon did post dot.com crash.  Just squeezed competitors out of business, until they had 50% market share in every category they entered.  Anyone that survived the squeeze, Amazon then bought out.

Don't expect Elon Musk to think inside the box.  Ultimately I believe we are heading to a world where private ownership of cars are outlawed.  We will move to an Uber system of single vehicle public transport, starting with human drivers but ultimately ending with self driving cars.  So cars are going to become fleet vehicles, which means design is irrelevant.  Sure a few die hards might want their own car, and want one that looks cool, but as more and more people live in garageless apartments the more they will become dependent on things like rideshare, Uber, community cars for hire etc. 

Its no coincidence that Tesla is pushing into the fleet business, an area that most automakers avoid.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/tesla-cars-are-becoming-a-popular-choice-with-fleet-operators

And I wouldnt be surprised if Tesla and Uber merge down the track 

Even if I assume for a moment that your predictions of Teslas and Elon Musks strategies might be not worse than your statements about the rainfall non event you predicted for the North Island :p :

This does not mean that any of this is going to happen or even remotely likely.

Last time I checked most big car manufacturers were outrageously profitable (well, but Tesla - they provide a meagre PE of 200 or so) ... and at he same time all selling now a material number of electric cars.

Other than Musk do they know how to build cars ... and it might have missed your attention, but apart from the different engine do electric cars still need wheels and tyres and suspension and (some sort of chassis) and breakes and a power train and many other things. It is useful for all of these if you are experienced in building them.

Ah yes - and all of them can afford to cut prices much further without losing money than Tesla can with their meagre EPS (what is it this year - 80 cents for a nearly $200 share)? Compare that with e.g. Daimler earning 12 Euro per share (valued at 72 Euro) - PE = 6!

Let that sink in - and maybe try to get out of some of your rabbit holes (and off Twitter) before the latest deluge floods them ...

[KW]

Last time I checked most big car manufacturers were outrageously profitable (well, but Tesla - they provide a meagre PE of 200 or so) ... and at he same time all selling now a material number of electric cars.

They are profitable making ICE cars, which they will no longer be able to do shortly.  If they have to cut prices on EV cars which are already marginal, they will lose money.  I posted a chart showing what profits each car manufacturer makes on an EV.  Its peanuts.  A $2000 price cut pushes all bar GM into losses.

Have a look at Price to Free Cashflow.  Tesla is trading at 8 times FCF, GM is negative 11.

[BlackPeter]

They are profitable making ICE cars, which they will no longer be able to do shortly.  If they have to cut prices on EV cars which are already marginal, they will lose money.  I posted a chart showing what profits each car manufacturer makes on an EV.  Its peanuts.  A $2000 price cut pushes all bar GM into losses.

Have a look at Price to Free Cashflow.  Tesla is trading at 8 times FCF, GM is negative 11.

OK - I don't follow GM (only historic interest in dinosaurs, no interest in gas guzzlers and I avoid US shares at any opportunity ...), but you might find that large Japanese as well as European car manufacturers are able to compete quite well in the EV market.

Wondering as well how Tesla will respond when a quite significant share of the new vehicle market will move to hydrogen technology (which is basically ICE) - but I am sure Elon will twitter it earlier (let that sink in) ... no need to wait.

Seriously - I guess who would buy any product from any company related to this d*ck?

[Onemootpoint]

Apparently Investors day was a bit disappointing. Shares dropped like a stone ending the day nearly 6% down.

[Basil]

Tesla gross margin disappointed today.  Just over 18% and the street had expected 20%.
6 price cuts this year alone.
BYD, shaping up as Tesla's biggest rival, just dropped an absolute bombshell with a fully electric car for only U.S. $11.400 !  Oh my goodness, that's really thrown the cat amongst the pigeons !
https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles/teslas-biggest-chinese-rival-drops-a-bombshell
Crickey, imagine that shipped here in RHD and the net cost after the Govt's $8,000 subsidy!

[Waltzing]

Still wont buy one not even for a dollar unless it was to sell it to someone for a profit...

[KW]

An interesting look into where Elon might be going with Tesla.
https://www.news-daily.com/arena/thestreet/elon-musk-says-tesla-can-sell-cars-for-zero-profit/article_38d8fbbd-1f20-5381-a19c-deb696d29822.htm
"Tesla is in a uniquely strong strategic position because we're the only ones making cars that technically we could sell for zero profit for now, and then yield actually tremendous economics in the future through autonomy," Musk asserted. "No one else can do that."

Now that would be true disruption   

[BlackPeter]

An interesting look into where Elon might be going with Tesla.
https://www.news-daily.com/arena/thestreet/elon-musk-says-tesla-can-sell-cars-for-zero-profit/article_38d8fbbd-1f20-5381-a19c-deb696d29822.htm
"Tesla is in a uniquely strong strategic position because we're the only ones making cars that technically we could sell for zero profit for now, and then yield actually tremendous economics in the future through autonomy," Musk asserted. "No one else can do that."

Now that would be true disruption   

Well, lets face it - Tesla is cutting margins because they have to. Chinese BYD (https://bydauto.co.nz/) was snapping for some time on Teslas heels, and now they are accelerating:

https://www.economist.com/business/2023/02/02/chinas-byd-is-overtaking-tesla-as-the-carmaker-extraordinaire

I think Tesla has already lost the race, and being run by an egomaniac certainly won't help them to catch up, but sure - Elon is always good for another stupid line like "Let that sink in". Probably time to fire half of Tesla's engineers to allow Tesla to run faster and ask the other half to work 24 hours a day.

He is a Twitter crushing twit ... and the people invested in Tesla feel the heat already. It will be still a looong way down from where the shares currently are. Never buy shares in a downtrend!

Just wondering - when did you start to show interest for companies on the way down? Tesla clearly is - or which magic criteria are you using these days? Maybe you should revisit your footer?

[KW]

Just wondering - when did you start to show interest for companies on the way down? Tesla clearly is - or which magic criteria are you using these days? Maybe you should revisit your footer?

I watch a lot of shares in a downtrend, I just dont buy them. I wait.  And I'm watching Tesla .  A lot of my momentum investing relies upon a breakout from a bottom, preferably after having based for a while.  And a new bull market requires new leaders, so you have to be looking out for them.  

Most of my day is spent looking for stocks making a move up on volume, or setting alerts on resistant levels that get triggered by price moves.  Breakout moves above the 200 day MA by definition require a stock to have been in a downtrend.  Since the aim is not to buy the bottom, but the first or second move higher in a new uptrend, you have to be watching a lot of stocks and be ready to pounce on them in order to maximise your return.

If Tesla moves back in to an uptrend, I'll be buying.  Until then, I just follow Elon's musings on Twitter and SpaceX launch videos lol

[BlackPeter]

I watch a lot of shares in a downtrend, I just dont buy them. I wait.  And I'm watching Tesla .  A lot of my momentum investing relies upon a breakout from a bottom, preferably after having based for a while.  And a new bull market requires new leaders, so you have to be looking out for them. 

Most of my day is spent looking for stocks making a move up on volume, or setting alerts on resistant levels that get triggered by price moves.  Breakout moves above the 200 day MA by definition require a stock to have been in a downtrend.  Since the aim is not to buy the bottom, but the first or second move higher in a new uptrend, you have to be watching a lot of stocks and be ready to pounce on them in order to maximise your return.

If Tesla moves back in to an uptrend, I'll be buying.  Until then, I just follow Elon's musings on Twitter and SpaceX launch videos lol

Fair enough, makes sense.

Though still not sure I share your admiration for the Elon guy - too much hot air.

But then - good on you for being able to make money out of hot air. Not my area of expertise;

[BlackPeter]

Interesting article in the Herald (sorry, paywalled):

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dream-car-a-nightmare-tesla-nz-sold-woman-brand-new-79000-model-3-with-multiple-scratches-to-paintwork/Q64SF6TBYBEOHINSS6RE2PFF5A/

Sounds like this Elon is a  genius, he sells new cars with scratches in the paintwork and coffee stains in the interior ... and, yes, the technical specs (range) don't seem to be right either. Next he is fighting customers all the way through the courts to avoid fixing the problems.

Not a surprise - why should anybody who treats staff like slaves care for customers?

Tell your friends - buying a Tesla is a must for anybody who wants to own a substandard product and be treated by the seller like an annoying fly. Tesla must be a great investment, they punish their customers whether they like it or not. Oh, no - the share is on a downtrend, I wonder why?

[KW]

I'm more amazed that a story about a Tesla with scratches is the top news story.  But then as soon as Tucker Carlson announced he was moving to Twitter, I knew that the number of anti-Tesla stories would start ramping up, and I was not wrong.  

If your biggest complaint about a Tesla is that it was scratched in transit and the incompetant panelbeaters in NZ are incapable of repairing it, then they're doing ok.  Compare Ford as an example, which literally stop working as soon as they leave the dealership
https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/disgruntled-aussie-customers-call-out-ford-over-lemon-rangers/80c6dbca-91a0-40b5-98b0-b4d7b4b2a9ba