Your Predictions for 2023

[Basil]

Labour will lose the 2023 election
Property will fall by another 10-20%
RYM will do a capital raise
OCA will still attract an inordinate number of posts on both sites as people struggle to reconcile all the positive talk from the company with its poor financial results
HLG will stun to the upside with earnings and dividends that will really please shareholders
The market will have another tough year with minimal overall returns
Bonds will perform well
The war in Ukraine will continue all year and fuel prices will take off again
Inflation will cool to 5% by year end
The Reserve Bank will remain behind the curve and will eventually look really stupid as they overtighten and keep rates higher for longer than is necessary.
Bealge will catch a large Kingfish from his new boat this summer and be absolutely ecstatic about it.

[Perky]

I Predict
1. the beagle continues to talk his book...until he's moved on to something else
2. Labour loose, jacinda doesn't stand for pm and relocates to Europe
3. Shares very volatile but very little overall growth
4. Fixed interest and corporate bonds perform
5. Oil and gas surge on cold weather and limited supply in Europe and people realise you can't turn them off and renewables on that quickly
6.oca stage recovery..the beagle announces he took an oversized position a few months back

Happy fishing Beagle and thanks for all your time and effort posting your musings on the forum.

Hope your got some good divies stashed..filling up the boat on diesel can't be  much fun

[Hectorplains]

1. Synlait will be a star performer. Ryman will be amongst the worst.
2. In an "I have seen the light" fervor, the Beagle will embrace ECG accounting metrics.
3. The long awaited Mod revival sweeps the fashion and music scenes.  HLG slow to embrace the new trend, marked by a refusal to stock Zoot Suits
4. All Blacks lose the World Cup - unconvincing in pool play and tipped over in quarters. Scott Robertson has already signed for another nation.   Rugby's trajectory to a national obscurity gathers pace.
5. Winston Peters like a Phoenix from the flame will again hold sway on the election result.

[Crackity]

Who is this masked beagle - I only see a fragrant herb on this site 

[Ferg]

My predictions which you can all mock me for in 12 months and 12 days time:

1) No recession in NZ in 2023, in other words we do not have 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during 2023
2) David Seymour gets a ministerial appointment in 2023
3) NZ median house price to stabilise i.e. annual growth >= 0% as measured from 31 Dec 2022 to 31 Dec 2023
4) and H1 of 2023 will have plenty of opportunities to buy the dip of the dippity dip with share prices rebounding in H2

All are based on the assumption there is not another pandemic, or significant world health event, in 2023.  Otherwise anything can happen.

[BlackPeter]

Who is this masked beagle - I only see a fragrant herb on this site 

The term is just so overloaded. In Faulty Towers I understand they used this name for the owner of the Etablissement.

Anyway, I gave up to make share market forecasts, given that wisdom comes with the recognition that the old saying "Nobody can predict the future" does have its merits.

However:
- I am sure that the correlation between analyst forecasts and market trends will stay over time the same it always used to be (basically uncorrelated). I am sure that people will continue to boost whenever their predictions have been right and they will continue to forget whenever their predictions failed.

- Politically I think its too early days to call the race. While Labour from the current perspective clearly deserves to lose, am I not yet sure, whether National would deserve to win, and you can't have two losers, can you? On reflection though I think you can. I predict that one of the contenders will lose and the public of NZ will lose out as well (no matter which of the parties win).

- The war in the Ukraine is in my view not better predictable than the default of the old Sowjetunion in the early 90'ies. Whatever happens - it will be a surprise to some people.

- I don't expect energy prices (despite some volatility) to contribute to further inflation, which means overall inflation numbers should drop. Hey, here is a forecast at last. It will be either right or wrong.

[Plata]

I reckon 2023 will be marked by China getting crushed by repeated COVID waves and increasing civil unrest, Ukraine/Russia war ceasefire around November, OPEC output cuts, NZ market up 0-5% with inflation staying above 4% entire year, Onslow gets binned, HPI down for the year. I will be correct on at least one of these I think, and I will feel very wise. In saying that, maybe if I get them all wrong I can become a reserve bank economist

[Whome]

Ah, the tea leaves ... I predict:
1. Labour will go for an early election to try and pre-empt further falls in the polls.
2. Labour will still lose the election and Jacinda will head to the UN.. or wherever .. who cares...
3. National will get caught out by early election by not having policies embedded, but still get in with Act vote.
4. New govt will open the border to immigrants and begin an economic recovery.
5. Mortgagee sales will become frequent in H2 for those who bought in the last 2 years on 80% borrowing but ease as economic recovery kicks in, and this sector will constitute the NZ recession.
6. Beagle catches a bloody big snapper before 1 Jan 2023.

[Whome]

Why a big snapper and not a kingfish ... because big kingfish like to lurk near rocks, buoys and marker poles ... not a good place to take a new boat.

[Shareguy]

1/ National and Act form the next government. Nz first gets over 5 percent and sits in cross bench's.

2/ House prices will continue slow decline but will end the year increasing. Supply and demand will kick in. Builders will slow building until market demand comes back. National will bin Labours interest deductibility on rentals and other stupid changes. The door will open on immigration and property will continue to be a great asset to build serious wealth.

3/ It will be a great year for stocks with serious money to be made or lost. Some investors will learn the hard way just how important diversification and quality is.

4/ NZ will miss a recession .....just.

5/ National will stop Onslow going any further, if it has not already been shelved.

6/ The warm waters will bring more sub tropical fish to our shores. Marlin will be plentiful.

Merry Xmas everybody and thanks to the administration of this site for running an excellent forum.

[snapiti]

I predict Adrian Orr will over react and crush the economy whilst making unemployment rise and killing inflation completely.
I predict house prices down another 15%
I predict the NZX 50 will have one of it's worst years ever end down 15%
I predict another bad year for retirement stock but a recovery latter in 2023

[Basil]

Mark Lister's thoughts for 2023.
https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/12/looking-ahead-to-2023?utm_source=insights-enews-201222&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=looking-ahead-to-2023&_cldee=FPQwTuw46RP6rgD2YqJzT5BFdBQRD8swoOgJ7VCg4W_cKUut4ElStcOREKQgq75T&recipientid=contact-f4e18c1d7f2de8119427005056a307fc-0e5f93bf63b0422c821f71528d037a31&esid=6e9745ae-427f-ed11-a2db-00505681265f

[Waltzing]

"I predict Adrian Orr will over react and crush the economy whilst making unemployment rise and killing inflation completely.
I predict house prices down another 15%
I predict the NZX 50 will have one of it's worst years ever end down 15%"

perma bear ....

reaching for the whisky already... oh dear...

if that comes to pass then it ORR who needs to be crushed ... or sent down the river and washed out to sea...

there is a german data scientist in the North Island who knocked together some models on a couple of computers in his uni office that provided more up to date data then Stats NZ and the reserve bank.

They ignored him cause who knows why... cuase we know better dont we...

hiding their pencils and paper...

[Playa]

Jacinda steps down before the election, announcing she is pregnant again. National win the election.

[Gerald]

2/ House prices will continue slow decline but will end the year increasing. Supply and demand will kick in. Builders will slow building until market demand comes back. National will bin Labours interest deductibility on rentals and other stupid changes. The door will open on immigration and property will continue to be a great asset to build serious wealth.

Never really understood this sentiment that is so common amoungst kiwis. A good book to read is Irrational Exurberance wherin Robert Shiller explains that over the long run, given comparable properties and section sizes there has generally been NONE or very little increases in house prices in real terms (after inflation). And why should property value growth exceed inflation? After all is not a house made of things that over the long run increase roughly in line with inflation, and there has never been a land scarcity issue except in major cities.

If the 2000-2100 period follows the 1890-2000 period you could possibly get absolutely destroyed levering up.

Seems to be just a wonderful bubble based on debt, speculation and regulations. Ask yourself if it is normal that a low risk investment that rarely goes down can deliver returns in excess of 50-60% per year to a levered property owner like the last 10 years.


" It is true that, for the United States as a whole, real home prices were 66 percent higher in 2004 than in 1890, according to the index my research assistants and I have put together. But all of that increase occurred in two brief periods: the time right after World War II and since 1998.

Other than those two periods, real home prices overall have been mostly flat or declining. Moreover, the overall increase, including the booms, is not very impressive -- 0.4 percent a year."

https://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/

Some good charts:

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Anyway sorry for the distraction please keep going.