Your Predictions for 2023

[Whome]

Quote from: Basil on Dec 22, 2022, 11:56 AM
Maybe so we could all get the most out of this thread we morph this discussion into a question about what's your strategy to navigate the challenges of 2023 ? 

My no. 1 investment strategy to navigate 2023 will be to invest in NZ companies with no debt given inflation and interest rates are still to peak, and could still surprise on the high side. While this is one factor and provides choices in future company growth, they still have to perform and do what they say they will do. I see no debt as a best start point in the current inflationary climate.

Growth stocks are the fun side of investing - the 10% spec end - a small amount since I have recently retired. I believe Oz will recover quicker than NZ. I liked what Percy said some time back - DMX Funds identify good Oz prospects early in the piece - and that has paid off with Acrow and I think Lovisa was one of theirs. no.2 strategy is to invest in Oz for the fun end - and carefully watch them grow!

Another factor for NZ will be the forecast effects of a change in govt such as tourism which could rise again from the ashes. Just how will Act and Winnie influence things. Interesting times ahead and I hope we see an end to the woke crap we have endured in the last few years.

[snapiti]

solid cashed up strategy for me.....have been since Jan 2022.
I own two ASX high growth stock but apart from that are very happy to sit on the sidelines whilst Orr pushes through his mandate.
A number of differing term deposit length to make sure some money is always rolling off to take advantage of lowering share prices.
On the buy list for later in 2023......RYM,OCA,SUM,WBC,HGH,KPG,BOQ.
Going to have to get through a mountain of headwinds for the share market first 6 to 9 months of 2023   

[Ferg]

Strategy for me will be cash + accumulations on (perceived) price weaknesses of quality ASX and NZX dividend payers.  Preferably imputed on the NZX.

[Shareguy]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/28/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

[Whome]

Re-printed from 'Wealth Morning' - a world view of market influence factors for 2022/23 from 2 perspectives. #1 the pessimists view, then #2 the optimists view. I shall stay with #2 !!!

Friday, 30th December, 2022 — Auckland, New Zealand
By Simon Angelo

Do you ever feel you've awoken to a world you no longer recognise?

In A View from the Bridge, by Arthur Miller, the lawyer Alfieri says he is 'inclined to notice the ruins in things, perhaps because he was born in Italy.'

An outsider to Al Capone's New York, he sees that he is powerless but to watch events run their bloody course.

Then, as now, change was afoot in a most brutal and pervasive way. This is what I think of as I look at the 2020s.

A sense of ruin. A bloody course. But, just maybe, recovery.

This decade has opened as the most divisive, chaotic, confusing, and unequal since the 1930s.

Where do I start?

A powder keg of worsening inequality fuelling rising crime.
Runaway inflation, escalating interest rates, and a persistent bear market clawing away wealth.
An entire generation shut out from home ownership, much poorer than their predecessors.
Extreme concentrations of wealth and a decimated middle class.
Levels of rivalry amongst major powers not seen since the Cold War.
Deep divisions even in the most developed and prosperous nations.
Claims that a coming climate emergency will destroy the world as know it.
Going into 2023, there are two potential courses.

One will see instability and chaos with volatility in financial markets like never before. The other, a renewed path to a period of more sustained prosperity.

 

Possibility #1 — The course of chaos?


Lessons from history show us that unequal and fractured societies fall apart.

Consider Ancient Rome. Instability destroyed the regime from the top down.

There was little to no middle class acting as a buffer in Roman society.

The elite ruling patrician class saw their power shattered when the much more numerous plebeians rose up against them.

 
Secession of the Plebs. Source: History Daily

 

Do we have a patrician class today?

They may well be found in the gentrified left and globalised elite.

Power is concentrated amongst tech-company titans, socialist-leaning governments, activist judges, progressive academics, and greying professionals that occupy elite suburbs of big cities.

These patrician elite stand against all climate emissions, seemingly regardless of mitigation. They stand for progressive social values. They're against the outward expansion of cities. They're for globalisation, open immigration, and diversity ahead of national identity. And they'll often be seen virtue-signalling these values to their group.

Unfortunately, for the many more outside these elites, their very livelihoods are under threat.

Their jobs disappear. Their farms are doomed by regulation. Their small businesses are at risk. Costs for transport, energy, and food continue to spiral upwards. Their sense of culture or faith is vilified.

Wealth of the patrician elite has become far more concentrated in the world.

Their sources of wealth in technology and elite professions create far fewer jobs than in the industrial past. As a result, there is no longer a vibrant middle class. Wealth floats directly to the top.

The result? In America in 2021, the top 1% controlled nearly a third of all household wealth, increasing during the pandemic. They also owned 54% of individually held shares.

Here in New Zealand, a similar trend. The top 10% of households hold about 50% of all household net worth.

Of the 120 MPs in this country, declarations show they own 256 properties.

The elite have enjoyed spacious homes with yards to raise their families.

Now they tell the next generation they must live more densely in apartments or jam-packed townhouses. If they do want to own a home, they must borrow at very high rates. They must compete with growing flows of migrants for jobs and scarce homes. They must accept much lower real wages than their parents. And they should reduce driving so they can cut emissions.

The once successful, property-owning democracies of the West are increasingly under threat. And the focus has moved to preserving the interests of the elite. Knowingly or unknowingly, they are shaping society to prevent upward mobility and preserve their position.

There is now a generational war. A culture war. And an economic one.

Outside of the elite and those they may have brainwashed, large numbers of people do not want a path that is without property, genderless, climate-terrorised, or opposed to their values of faith and family.

The early simmering of this was seen in the huge support Donald Trump received. The Leave vote that saw the UK exit the EU. And the rise of right-wing populist parties in central and southern Europe.

Failure to recognise the needs of those outside the elite, or beyond their circles, will see a continued fracturing of society.

As debt and the cost of that borrowing grows, developed countries will begin to look more and more like the developing world. Where the elite live in a handful of beautiful areas. And the rest of the population navigate a world of crime, addiction, gangs, corruption, and declining living standards.

Financial markets will continue to experience volatility. Inflation and debt will continue to misprice assets and lead to crashes. And it will become even more difficult to find upside in markets. Except for the most skilled of investors.

 

Possibility #2 — The course of recovery?

 There is also hope for a different path. It comes from restabilising work for most and wrestling control from the virtuous elite.

On both the left and right, there is now a realisation that, under the current order, low-cost manufacturers like China will capture not only jobs but entire industries from the West. Beginning in America, there is now a process of incentivised re-shoring underway.

This could create a new dawn of emerging industries in the areas of green energy, artificial intelligence, and clean transportation that herald new industry and jobs throughout the world.

 The inflationary debt crisis of 2022 is now seeing housing markets crumble. In New Zealand, the right seek to expand urban limits and increase the supply of homes. While the left seek to ramp up tenant protection and tax landlords and speculators.

Pushback and logic are coming to the climate debate so that people are looking beyond immediate emissions. If an electric car is made in a coal-powered station in China and creates vast life-cycle pollution from its mining, is it really that clean? Are there alternative technologies that are less pollutive?

And if you're driving an efficient gasoline car but have around 20 trees around your property, would it not be fair to consider that you'll absorb enough carbon for a year of commuting?

From where I'm standing, it also seems that right-leaning governments will take control around the world from 2023 and beyond.

Simply because the left and right of the political spectrum are no longer what they were.

Left political parties once represented workers. The right, the capitalist and professional classes.

This has turned on its head. Today, the left has become gentrified. It is made up of elites and progressives. Much of the working class has moved right.

Whether it is Giorgia Meloni in Italy or Ron DeSantis in America, votes are lining up powerfully for the right, thanks to this move from ordinary working people.

This could offer a freeing up of economic opportunity, a return of jobs, managed immigration, family-friendly policies, and renewed national pride.

While the free market is far from perfect, I cannot help but consider the many entrepreneurs who have created companies that have changed the world. Were the free market contained or derailed as the elite promote, most of those entrepreneurs would not have started those businesses.

And the world would have been materially worse off.

A free market that works for all — that supports employment — will see markets embrace again many new growth areas in business. Not only in technology but in a new greener reindustrialisation of many countries around the world.


We believe in the course of recovery


Do you see the ruins in things?

Everything is broken, but in reality, few are evil.

I am an optimist. And I see the rest of the 2020s ready to roar.

Whatever course we find ourselves on in 2023, there is one certainty. A changing world creates opportunity. And it is set to change like never before.

[Mousehold]

When it comes to predictions, especially around homeowners, landlords and tenants, it seems technology is moving into this area too.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7eaw/robot-landlords-are-buying-up-houses

[Hectorplains]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130895723/national-act-looking-primed-in-2023-but-dont-write-off-nz-first

Interesting piece from Mike - and he only blows his own horn twice - in an atypical show of ego restraint.  I went to school with Mike, he hasn't changed a jot. Which is cool...if you value consistency of above all else. And then there's his Peter's prediction.  Too consistently a gate crasher too write off he reckons.  God forbid then, that in the year of the rabbit, the electorate stitches us up with that bunny again.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130895723/national-act-looking-primed-in-2023-but-dont-write-off-nz-first

Interesting piece from Mike - and he only blows his own horn twice - in an atypical show of ego restraint.  I went to school with Mike, he hasn't changed a jot. Which is cool...if you value consistency of above all else. And then there's his Peter's prediction.  Too consistently a gate crasher too write off he reckons.  God forbid then, that in the year of the rabbit, the electorate stitches us up with that bunny again.

So - what is the hit rate of his previous predictions?

[Hectorplains]

So - what is the hit rate of his previous predictions?

According to Mike, I imagine that'd be well over 100%...    

[Hectorplains]

The Standard and Poor's 500, finished 2022 in negative territory. This index closed at 3,839.50.  While it was only down 0.25% on the day, it also meant it was down 19.44% for the year.

So, 2022 was the worst year for the S&P 500 since 2008 and the fourth-worst year since the index was expanded to 500 companies in 1957.

The good news is, historically, back-to-back down years are very rare!  You cannot view this attachment.

[Waltzing]

Love the charts ....

 yep sometime this year is a buy ...

and the rate at which hi Mars oclock is ticking it could be sooner than we expect...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qltUuqEeMnQ

CNBC posted a good article a few days ago.

[Hectorplains]

Love the charts ....

 yep sometime this year is a buy ...

and the rate at which hi Mars oclock is ticking it could be sooner than we expect...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qltUuqEeMnQ

CNBC posted a good article a few days ago.

Here's Richard Prebble's best guesses...https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/richard-prebbles-predictions-for-2023/YQWQEWGGHFBSPHERV2MMMYOPQM/

Plenty of them...including Labour out in a landslide but no Peters' revival, no recession and a massive rebound for tourism driven by China.

[Waltzing]

RP?

dont read the locals news... it bad for the mind... unless it about demolishing all the houses at mount mews and letting the surf break make a come back at the mount main beach which back in the 1950's was probably one of the best in the country...

https://teara.govt.nz/en/photograph/39189/mt-maunganui-1955

what a time... what a place ...

ban beach housing... to late ...

[Hectorplains]

RP?

dont read the locals news... it bad for the mind... unless it about demolishing all the houses at mount mews and letting the surf break make a come back at the mount main beach which back in the 1950's was probably one of the best in the country...

https://teara.govt.nz/en/photograph/39189/mt-maunganui-1955

what a time... what a place ...

ban beach housing... to late ...

A bit before my time that, Waltz.  I can't stand the place today.  It's just another Tauranga suburb in a paean to unchecked urban sprawl.   You can't even drive through it quickly. 

[Waltzing]

Yes it should never have been allowed... but same happened to Jef bay in south africa..

the winds from high rise housing apparently change the dynamics on beaches ... well apparently...
 
modelling of the enivironment did not exsist although the book ONE planet was published back... just wait checking tha dat...

unfortunately 1972...

all to late....

but a lot of work went into it..