Argosy Property

[Waltzing]

...one two eight five ? ? ? ?  wow wow wow...

[winner (n)]

...one two eight five ? ? ? ?  wow wow wow...

is that 1.285

[Waltzing]

its  1.29 now......  1.29!!!

its a defensive yield stock... is there radical OCR cuts coming?  is someone hitting the panic buy button?

[Basil]

Recent GDP report was an absolute shocker.  You'd think a 50 bps cut by the RBNZ is the most common sense thing to do, after all most of N.Z. (rural sector boom notwithstanding) has been in recession for more than 5 years since Covid hit !

[winner (n)]

Recent GDP report was an absolute shocker.  You'd think a 50 bps cut by the RBNZ is the most common sense thing to do, after all most of N.Z. (rural sector boom notwithstanding) has been in recession for more than 5 years since Covid hit !

Westpac Kelly agrees with you ....touting 50 bps next week with OCR to 2.5%

Must be going to happen

https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/nz/2025/10/Economic-Data_011025-MPR-preview_bulletin_01Oct25.pdf

[Basil]

"Quickly moving the OCR to a stimulatory level
will generate confidence and activity ahead
of the important Christmas and summer
trading period".
I liked that bit.  I think that's REALLY important for the N.Z. economy.

[winner (n)]

Westpac Kelly one of these - "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today."  ....and didn't learn from it

[Otago K]

Not sure if it's  reality but heard something about a larger than normal NZ bank deposits to mature about now, and suspect the current reinvestment yields might not be tempting as much as a REIT current yield.

[winner (n)]

Not sure if it's  reality but heard something about a larger than normal NZ bank deposits to mature about now, and suspect the current reinvestment yields might not be tempting as much as a REIT current yield.

One estimate I've seen is household term deposits totaled approximately $160 billion by July 2025, growing from under $100 billion in May 2022

And about $25 billion to mature by Christmas

Suppose a lot going into other things instead of being reinvested

[Basil]

Think I read on interest.co.nz, the vast majority of term deposits are less than a year so there's probably another~ $100 Billion maturing early to mid next year when interest rates on offer might be below 3%.  Tax free yield of 5.2% at the current price worth more than 7.7% gross to 33% taxpayers and ~ 8.5% gross to trusts and those individuals fortunate to be earning over $180K.
 
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/135479/our-largest-home-loan-lender-strikes-wide-ranging-rate-cuts-grabbing-market
Excerpt: To 'pay' for that, they have also cut their term deposit rates, and in that case the reductions are -10 bps to -25 bps across every term. After this drop, those TD rates are now market-lows. With rates for most popular terms now about 3.5%, it isn't hard to foresee sub 3% rates if these trends build over the rest of 2025.

[Otago K]

Think I read on interest.co.nz, the vast majority of term deposits are less than a year so there's probably another~ $100 Billion maturing early to mid next year when interest rates on offer might be below 3%.  Tax free yield of 5.2% at the current price worth more than 7.7% gross to 33% taxpayers and ~ 8.5% gross to trusts and those individuals fortunate to be earning over $180K.
 
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/135479/our-largest-home-loan-lender-strikes-wide-ranging-rate-cuts-grabbing-market
Excerpt: To 'pay' for that, they have also cut their term deposit rates, and in that case the reductions are -10 bps to -25 bps across every term. After this drop, those TD rates are now market-lows. With rates for most popular terms now about 3.5%, it isn't hard to foresee sub 3% rates if these trends build over the rest of 2025.

Thanks Basil, interesting article you quote from yesterday.
Graph on the swap rate shows a 1/2 % drop to 2.5% in September which I think might be the minimum our banks will go to. May have hit the here and now for some focus into REITs and other dividend income stock alternatives to be invested into by many retail investors out there.
Any further lending rate cuts will therefore by logic be matched in the interest rates on Bank borrowing paid, so what's the impetus to the values dividend stock are traded at going forward, if as you say, there is a desire to get some economic stimulus in the NZ economy???

[winner (n)]

KPG at 52 week high

It's all on with these property stocks

[Basil]

KPG at 52 week high

It's all on with these property stocks

Milford's are keen on more KPG.  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/459942/attachment/453532/459942-453532.pdf  Think they've won the Kiwisaver fund manager of the year award for a few years running now, from memory.

Otago K.  Lower for a LOT longer is my call.  I can foresee the RBNZ dropping the cash rate to 2% by early 2026 and term deposits under 3% and staying there for quite a protracted period.  That makes any company with a long and stable track record of paying 6% gross dividends or more highly attractive, many of which I have written about a lot recently, but also including GNE yielding 8.3% gross at $2.40. 

[Waltzing]

... 130...  130!!!!! yes even GMT went up... there is something moving out there and its called ?  MONEY!!!!!

[winner (n)]

... 130...  130!!!!! yes even GMT went up... there is something moving out there and its called ?  MONEY!!!!!

$1.30